EUR/AUD - Euro continues to trade within a large channel that dominated the price action since September with the latest swing to the upside failing to break above 1.6200 figure, a subsequent reversal will most likely see the pair head lower and test the bids around the psychologically important 1.6000 handle, a level defended by the combination of 23.6 Fib of the 1.7712-.5532 AUD rally at 1.6050, a 200-day SMA and a 50-day SM. A further move to the downside will most likely see the cross head lower and with a confirmed break below 1.5895, a level established by the November 11 daily low, most likely seeing the EUR/AUD target 1.5757, a level marked by the September 20 daily low. A sustained downside momentum will most likely see EUR/AUD aim for the bids around 1.5598, a level created by the October 4 daily low. Indicators are favoring euro longs with both positive momentum indicator and MACD treading above the zero line, while overbought Stochastic gives the euro longs a chance to retaliate.

EUR/CAD - Euro bulls continued to retreat as Canadian dollar longs pushed the cross against 1.3722, a level marked by the December 14 daily low. A further move to the downside will most likely see the cross head lower and take on the single currency bids around 1.3512, a level established by the 78.6 Fib of the 1.2569-1.6978 EUR rally, and with a move below the psychologically important 1.3500 handle aiming for 1.3313, a level marked by the December 13, 2000 daily low. A sustained momentum on the part of the Loonie longs will most likely see the EUR/CAD head lower and target the bids around 1.3010, a level not seen since July 17, 2001, which currently acts as a gateway toward the psychologically important 1.3000 handle. Indicators are diverging, with negative momentum indicator diverging from positive MACD above the zero line, with neutral oscillators giving either side enough room to maneuver.

EUR/NZD - New Zealand dollar longs continued to push the cross lower with the latest swing to the downside heading toward the psychologically important 1.7500 figure. As Kiwi bulls push the cross lower, a break below 1.7300-1.7450 corridor, a potential support zone established by the combination of the 38.2 Fib of the 1.9160-1.6240 EUR rally at 1.7361, 50-day and 200-day SMA's will most likely see the New Zealand dollar traders test the single currency bids around 1.7249, a level marked by the December 30 daily low. A further move to the downside will most likely see the cross head lower and aim for the psychologically important 1.7000 handle, a level defended by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.9160-1.6240 EUR rally at 1.6933. Indicators are favoring the Euro longs, with both positive momentum indicator and MACD treading above the zero line, while ADX above 25 at 25.24 signals an existence of a trend, not a direction of one, with neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.