After pulling back in about 10% off its recent swing high, SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF ($XOP) found support at the 50-day MA, where it has since been consolidating in a tight range.

The 50-day moving average has remained in an uptrend throughout the basing action. The 10-day moving average is currently below the 50-day MA, but it has stopped making lower lows the past few weeks:



As shown on the chart above, $XOP has established one higher "swing low" within the base on 11/19, and potentially a second higher swing low if Monday's low can hold. It will be important for $XOP to close back above the 50-day moving average, as this would also result in a break of the daily downtrend line.

If $XOP can break out to new 52-week highs within the next few weeks, it would also result in a move to new all-time highs (breaking the prior high from 2008). As such, this is a potential breakout setup on multiple time frames, which are often the most powerful:



On November 14, we established a short position in the Japanese yen through buying the inversely correlated ProShares UltraShort Yen ($YCS). Since then, our swing trade has climbed steadily higher, and is now approaching our target area:



As with all momentum trades provided to subscribers of our swing trading newsletter, our exact target price for the $YCS trade is listed in the "Open Positions" section of today's report. We will automatically sell into strength when/if that predefined target price is reached.

Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Trader of both Morpheus Capital LP, a U.S. hedge fund, and MorpheusTrading.com, a trader education firm.