"Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth," boxing legend Mike Tyson.

The stock market has certainly thrown a few Tyson-like uppercuts over the past three sessions, leaving many traders down for the count. We have tightened up protective stops on most open positions, and are prepared to hold on to a few of the better-acting stocks and ETFs, with fairly loose stops, as long as they act well.

Our stock market timing model remains in neutral, but the leading stock portion of the model is barely hanging on. The same can be said for the trend portion, with the Nasdaq Composite in danger of losing support of its 50-day MA. Though some traders may feel the urge to pick a bottom in a favorite stock or ETF that was recently hit hard, market conditions have deteriorated so quickly that is best to lay low in the short-term.

The recent breakout in Natural Gas ETF ($UNG) is just about the only bullish price action we see from our nightly stock scans.

On the weekly chart below, notice that $UNG cleared the prior highs of 2013 on big volume. The weekly price and volume action was impressive, and could potentially spark a strong rally after nearly two years of chop near the lows:



On the shorter-term daily chart, we see that $UNG pulled back on Monday, which is to be expected at some point after a 25% run up off the lows in only eight sessions:



As the price action settles down and digests the last wave up, the 10-day moving average should eventually catch up and provide support. A pullback to the 10-day MA might be all we get if the new uptrend is strong. Note that the 50-day MA has crossed above the 200-day MA, and has been trending higher for a few months. The 200-day moving average is still sideways, but did turn up slightly last week.

There is no official buy setup in $UNG as of today, but we will continue to monitor the action for a low-risk entry point.

Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Trader of both Morpheus Capital LP, a U.S. hedge fund, and MorpheusTrading.com, a trader education firm.