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Consolidation Day in the Stock Indexes
By Harry Boxer | Published  03/31/2005 | Stocks | Unrated
Consolidation Day in the Stock Indexes

The indices had a consolidation day after yesterday's rally and did hold support, but I'd have to say it was a bit disappointing.  Tomorrow is a big day with the unemployment report due out, and we could have had more of a sideways, flag consolidation ahead of tomorrow rather than a down day, but not too bad. 

The indices started out with a slight move down and then a sharp rebound to new rally highs on the S&P.  But when that occurred and the Nasdaq failed to follow & get through 1490-91 resistance, they then sold off for the rest of the morning.

Around lunch hour they bottomed, consolidated and then moved up into mid-afternoon, just falling short of the early morning highs on the retest, and when that failure to break out occurred they sold off over the last 90 minutes or so into the close.

Net on the day the Dow held 10,500, but was off 37 on the day.  The S&P held 1180 but was down just less than a point.  The Nasdaq 100 held the 1480 zone and closed at 1482 1/2, down a little more than 9, and the Composite, a shade under 2000 at 1999 1/4, fell 6 1/2.  The SOX Index was down 2.70.

The technicals were very unusual today, with advance-declines positive on New York and negative on Nasdaq.  The up/down volume was 20 to 12 positive on New York, with an up/down volume of 9 to 7 positive .Total volume was about 1.7 billion on New York.

Nasdaq also traded 1.7 billion, but had a little less than 10-7 negative ratio there, with advance-declines nearly dead-even flat.

TheTechTrader.com board was very active.  The large-cap sector was narrowly mixed, but the small-cap sector had some big gainers.  One of our Watchboard stocks and Charts of the Week, CRYP, was up 1.73 today.  They had some positive early morning news. 

In the alternative energy sector, ENER ran ahead 1.09, and ESLR enjoyed a 56 cent gain.  One of the junior energy stocks we follow closely, GEOI, exploded today.  It ran past 10 and backed off to 9 3/4 to close up 1.77 on heavy volume.  NGPS ripped ahead for 2 points today.

Other stocks of note, BOOM, another Watchboard stock, ran very close to our trading target of 37.50, hitting 37.40, before backing off a couple points and closing up 67 cents on the day.  AIRT was ahead 59 cents, SIGM 31 cents, and FCEL, also in the alternative energy group, up 38 cents on the day.

On the losing side, there were very small fractional losses for the stocks that did lose.  Loss leaders on my board were TASR, down 44 cents, and the SMH, off 36 cents.

Stepping back and reviewing the overall patterns, the indices still are looking positive, as today's action held above the 21 and 40 day moving averages on the hourly charts for the Nasdaq 100 and price support at 1479-80.

This is key for me.  The 1179-80 zone on the S&P 500 is also short-term support, and that held all day today, as well.  We'll have to see how it goes tomorrow after the labor report is out and whether or not it's positive enough to get things going on the upside.

A takeout of today's highs around 1490-91 on the NDX and 1184-85 or so on the S&P could trigger an explosive rally.

Good trading!

Harry Boxer is a technical consultant to many Wall Street hedge funds and large institutional traders, and author of TheTechTrader.com, a real-time diary of his day, swing and intermediate-term trades. For more of Harry Boxer, sign up for a FREE 15-day trial to his Real-Time Technical Trading Diary, or sign up for a Free 30-Day Trial to his Top Charts of the Week service.