EUR/AUD – Euro remained confined within a large channel that dominated the price action since September with the latest swing to the upside downside to break below 1.604, a level defended by the combination of 23.6 Fib of the 1.7712-.5532 AUD rally at 1.6050, a 200-day SMA and a 50-day SMA. A subsequent reversal will most likely see the pair head higher and test the offers around 1.6363, a level established by the 38.2 Fib of the 1.7712-.5532 AUD rally. A further move to the upside will most likely see the EUR/AUD head higher and with a confirmed breakout above 1.6486, a level established by the September 9 daily high, most likely seeing the cross advance above the psychologically important 1.6500 handle. A sustained momentum on the part of the single currency bulls will most likely see EUR/AUD aim for the Aussie offers around 1.6618, a level created by 50.0 Fib of the 1.7712-.5532 AUD rally. Indicators are favoring euro longs with both positive momentum indicator and MACD treading above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

EUR/CAD – Euro bulls to keep the cross in a narrow consolidation range as price action remained non-existent with neither side managing to gain an upper hand. As Loonie longs resume their advance, a further move to the downside will most likely see the cross head lower and take on the single currency bids around 1.3512, a level established by the 78.6 Fib of the 1.2569-1.6978 EUR rally, and with a move below the psychologically important 1.3500 handle aiming for 1.3313, a level marked by the December 13, 2000 daily low. A sustained momentum on the part of the Loonie longs will most likely see the EUR/CAD head lower and target the bids around 1.3010, a level not seen since July 17, 2001, which currently acts as a gateway toward the psychologically important 1.3000 handle. Indicators are diverging, with negative momentum indicator diverging from positive MACD above the zero line, while oversold Stochastic gives euro longs a chance to retaliate.

EUR/NZD – Euro longs continued to push the cross higher with the latest swing to the upside breaking above 1.7700, a level established by the 50.0Fib of the 1.9160-1.6240 EUR rally .A further move to the upside will most likely see single currency bulls test the New Zealand dollar offers above the psychologically important 1.8000 handle, a level defended by the 61.8 Fib of the 1.9160-1.6240 EUR rally at 1.8045. A further move to the upside will most likely see the cross head higher and aim for the Kiwi’s offers around 1.8248, a level marked by the April 20 daily high. A sustained momentum on the part of the euro traders will most likely see the EUR/NZD head toward the next psychologically important level at 1.8500, a level protected by the 61.8 Fib of the 1.9160-1.6240 EUR rally. Indicators are favoring the Euro longs, with both positive momentum indicator and MACD treading above the zero line, with neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.