The Wagner Daily ETF Report For March 5 |
By Deron Wagner |
Published
03/5/2014
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Stocks
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Unrated
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The Wagner Daily ETF Report For March 5
Commodities continue to impress, and yesterday we added the Uranium ETF ($URA) to our portfolio on a continuation breakout. We are looking for a move to $22 if the price and volume action remains strong.
We have one new setup on today's watchlist in ($GLDX), which is the Global X Gold Explorers ETF. $GLDX is consolidating in a tight range above the rising 20-day EMA after breaking out above the 200-day MA on heavy volume. We are looking for $GLDX to resume its uptrend after three to four weeks of sideways action:
The weekly chart below shows the bullish breakout on the weekly chart on big volume. The past two weeks have produced lower volume, while consolidating in a tight range. Also, the 10-week MA has crossed above the 40-week MA, which is a bullish trend reversal signal:
The long-term monthly chart of $GLDX shows the break of downtrend line and the biggest spike in volume over the past few years during last month's close above the 10-month moving average:
Subscribing members of The Wagner Daily should note our preset trigger, stop, and target prices for this trade setup in the "Watchlist" section of today's report.
Tuesday's bullish gap up reversal in the broad market ran over all short sellers on the open. Shorting in a bull market is tough, but trying to pick a top in a broad market average that is in "trend mode" is extremely difficult.
Those who are willing to play that game must go through SEVERAL stop outs before hitting a positive trade, assuming they have the patience to make that happen. Most of the time, traders will fail at the first few attempts to short at the highs. The losses begin to add up and eventually produce enough doubt to cause the trader to pass on the next short attempt, which inevitably is the one that would have worked.
Eventually a trader becomes sick of the cycle and learns to stop shorting new highs. It is very much the same as learning to accept selling early on the long side, as no one can sell the top consistently. Once a trader begins to realize that short selling a top or selling long positions at the top is unrealistic, a ton of pressure will come off.
Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Trader of both Morpheus Capital LP, a U.S. hedge fund, and MorpheusTrading.com, a trader education firm.
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