Energies
Energies got a jump start on the April fools tradition by mid-reversing on Wednesday and spending the rest of the week surging on supply concerns.  Wednesday's data showed tremendous increases in crude supplies but a wider than expected draw in unleaded gas.  What a second - stop the presses!  You mean to tell me that unleaded gas supplies are going down heading into the summer driving season - go figure!  The market is clearly in hysteria mode, but hysteria mode can take you quite a long way.  I remain a vehement bear, selling OTM short term calls on rallies like these.

Financials
The financial industry definitely got fooled this April 1st by rallying on employment data this morning, as stocks and bonds surged while the dollar sold off.  Then the purchasing managers report and consumer sentiment comes out and stops the market dead in its tracks.  The dollar reversed, bonds plunged and the S&P reversed for one of the widest trading ranges I have seen intraday in quite some time.  What does it all mean?  Stocks want to sell off, bonds are going to, and the dollar is heading higher.  Look for a break of critical support at 1167 on the S&P for confirmation on the stock side.  Keep in mind the S&P hasn't followed through on any long term move in years.  The bottom line is days like today make a daily chart easier to get a read on.  A follow through day on Monday is critical to establish momentum.  Bonds may get some false buying interest later today and early next week and I highly recommend buying puts on any strong up day next week.  The dollar broke critical 8365 gap resistance and the next target is the previous highs, or for that matter any price move that gets us above 86.  The Canadian has some catching up to do so a move to 81 next week is certainly possible.

Grains
A decent rally on the export/plantings report for beans, corn and wheat fell apart mid-day on Thursday, a day early for a good April Fools.  Look for the market to reestablish value here across the board next week and for more choppy trade around this price arena.  Selling 700 calls on beans on rally days and 540 puts on selloff days sounds like a good plan.  Did anyone notice the craziness in oats the past few days?  Never been much of an oats trader, but watch this market - we just gapped higher, filled it, no broke trend line support and this market doesn't have the volume or a clue.  Could offer some good trading there.

Meats
Cattle prices faked higher on cash rally, but ultimately I stand by my mortgage the farm outlook here.  Cattle is on its way to the low 70s and any bear play should pay out here.  Futures make a lot of sense and so does just buying some deep OTM puts for a premium bounce when this thing collapses - look at August options.  Hogs and bellies remain a sell.

Metals
Gold played both sides of clueless this week as the market tried to avoid its pattern of getting ahead of itself when it comes to trends in the US dollar.  Today's reversal in the dollar is just another tip off that gold is heading south and the best way to play this market is short futures with calls as protection or straight buying of puts for a volatility pop on a $10 plus break that will come when the dollar breaks to new highs.  Silver continues to be oversold by comparison, but is yet another signal that the gold market will have to play catch-up when the dollar does run higher.  Copper remains a neutral market, with very strong fundamentals offset by dying momentum and bearish views overall for metals.  Avoid copper and take a look at palladium - the recent spike could be just the beginning.

Softs
OJ avoided a breakdown mid-week and showed some impressive signs of breaking out to the upside as we head into the weekend.  Coffee and cocoa both are hyper-reactive to the US dollar moves and both markets need to get off this over-exaggerated correlation.  Look for a one day break down (600 points plus in coffee and 80 points plus in cocoa) to signal a great buying opportunity in both markets.  I think picking up coffee at 110 or so is quite realistic.  Cocoa is a buy around 1450 or so.  I believe they changed the name of the official Ivory Coast Daily News to “Today's Coup”.  In all seriousness though, the Ivory Coast is going to remain at such a volatile level that buying on dips to play upside volatility spikes is about the only approach that makes sense in this environment.  Cotton began its fall to zero today.  Sell with stops 100 points above the highs and expect prices to get to my target of sub-40 prices despite the fundamental insanity of such a market call.  The plantings number will have less of an effect on the market as bulls would hope for.  Lumber also looks bearish but the gut says volatility is about to go over the top in lumber - even for lumber, so buying puts is the only way to go.  Sugar is ready to make its move, and expect 830 within the next 5-8 trading days.

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James Mound, owner of JMTG Brokerage LLC, MoundReport.com and author of the book 7 Secrets, writes the Weekend Commodities Review Newsletter. Receive your free weekly subscription to the Weekend Review by e-mail. Click here.