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Disappointing Finish to the Stock Market
http://www.tigersharktrading.com/articles/280/1/Disappointing-Finish-to-the-Stock-Market/Page1.html
By Harry Boxer
Published on 04/1/2005
 
Based on the pattern and previous action of the last 2 days and the early morning big gap-up, Harry Boxer would have expected a strong Friday, but the ISM debacle this morning set the market down and hard.

Disappointing Finish to the Stock Market

The market finished the week as disappointing as it could have been.  Based on the pattern and previous action of the last 2 days and the early morning big gap-up, I would have expected a strong Friday, but the ISM debacle this morning with the wrong numbers first released and then retracted set the market down and hard.

After running to a new rally high around the 1495 level on the NDX, it then dropped 25 points very quickly inside of an hour. The S&P 500, which rallied back up to key overhead resistance at 1190, failed right there and dropped to 1177 in the same period of time. A bounce occurred but failed at resistance, and that set off additional selling.  The S&P and NDX fell back down and took out the earlier lows.  They stabilized over the last couple hours, but failed to follow through on a late rally attempt and pullback down back near the lows again at the close.

Net on the day the Dow managed to get back over 10,400 after dipping below it, but still was down nearly 100 points today.  The S&P was down 7 2/3, the Nasdaq 100 more than 13, and the Composite nearly 14 1/2.  The SOX was down 5 3/4.

The technicals, because of the early upmove, weren't as bad as they may have been.  There were about 85 more decliners on New York, but Nasdaq had a nearly 2 to 1 negative ratio.  Up/down volume was 2 to 1 negative on New York with a total of more than 1.7 billion traded.  About 1.85 billion was traded on Nasdaq.  That ratio was about 2 1/2 to 1 negative.

So it was a decidedly down day on the indices today and a very negative follow-up to what looked like a promising start.

TheTechTrader.com board was mixed.  Alternative energy stocks ENER up 1.49, ELSR up 38 cents, DSTI up 45 cents, led the way.  HRT was up 73 cents.

But other than that, TheTechTrader.com was negative or flat.  Leading the losers, TASR got slammed to a new 52-week low, closing at 10.42, down 1.58 on 13 million shares.

Other losses of note, BOOM after some early gains backed off to close down 62 cents on the day.  AIRT was down 70 cents.

Stepping back and reviewing the overall patterns, despite the steep sell-off today and the breakdown below the moving averages on the hourly charts, the indices did bounce and then stabilize at what looks like a potential right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders bottoming pattern.  If these levels hold and the market moves up next week, we may have completed an important bottom despite today's ugly performance.

But if lower lows are made the market may retest the lows or worse. Stay tuned!!

Good trading!

Harry Boxer is a technical consultant to many Wall Street hedge funds and large institutional traders, and author of TheTechTrader.com, a real-time diary of his day, swing and intermediate-term trades. For more of Harry Boxer, sign up for a FREE 15-day trial to his Real-Time Technical Trading Diary, or sign up for a Free 30-Day Trial to his Top Charts of the Week service.