1. New Zealand Trade Balance
2. Canadian Current Account
3. NBNZ Business Confidence

New Zealand Trade Balance (Jan) (2/26; 21:45 GMT; 16:45 EST)
Consensus:   -NZ$402.00M
Previous:   -NZ$291.90M

Outlook:   New Zealandââ,¬â"¢s trade deficit is expected to have broadened in January as a drop off in exports failed to match a rise in imports from the previous month.  Analysts estimate that the country imported NZ $2.72B, lower than the previous monthââ,¬â"¢s NZ $2.94.  Exports are anticipated to have dropped to NZ $2.36B from NZ $2.65B in December.  Sales abroad from the largely agrarian-based economy have remained rather tepid over the past quarter as prices of the commodities remain low and a consistently expensive New Zealand currency erodes the competitiveness of the countryââ,¬â"¢s goods on the global market.  Also putting forth an unfavorable hand for Januaryââ,¬â"¢s shortfall, a sudden resurgence in the price of crude oil through the month likely boosted the price of overall imports significantly for the period.  Few speculators have kept their bets that previous monthsââ,¬â"¢ unexpected upside releases will continue their trend into January.

Previous:  The annual trade gap surprisingly narrowed in December as weak consumer and business confidence reduced the amount of foreign cars, computers, and energy commodities sold to kiwis.  The merchandise trade deficit for the year narrowed to NZ $6.44B from NZ $6.68B in 2004, as opposed to the expected NZ $6.9B.  Imports fell 4 percent in December from the expected increase of 7.2 percent, while exports grew 4.3 percent from the consensus of a drop of 1.2 percent on boosted overseas demand of milk powder, butter, logs, fruit and aluminum.  Speculators drove up the currency placing bets that the economic indicator will continue a trend towards a surplus. 

Canadian Current Account (BOP) (4Q) (2/27; 13:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
Consensus:       C$12.4B
Previous:          C$9.3B

Outlook:   Economists forecast the current account surplus to continue growing in lieu of energy exports from Canadian producers.  Crude and oil prices rebounded slightly, and the Canadian currency appreciated during the final quarter.  Nevertheless, analysts estimate the surplus to increase to C$12.4B from C$9.3B.  Long term experts predict that the growth in Canadaââ,¬â"¢s surplus will slowdown on lowered US demand for products.  Sales to US consumers accounts for a third of Canadaââ,¬â"¢s C$1.1 trillion economy.  The combination of a stronger currency and lowered US demand may have a significant impact on exports in the following quarters.  In addition, the continued surplus Canada has run with the rest of the world has provided a healthy supplement to the BoCââ,¬â"¢s banquet of favorable indicators to keep a hawkish monetary policy within scope.

Previous:  In the third quarter of last year, Canadaââ,¬â"¢s current account surplus grew by the largest amount ever as world-wide energy prices skyrocketed.  The increased value of natural gas and crude oil widened the balance to C$9.26B from C$4.89B.  Oil and gas alone accounted for C$19B of exports, significantly higher than the previous C$5.23B.  The record amounts compensated for poor factory exports, which arose from a stronger currency.  Last month, Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge increased interest rates to 3.50 percent to keep economic growth in the country within targets.

NBNZ Business Confidence (Jan) (12:00 GMT; 07:00 EST)
Consensus:       n/a
Previous:         -61.7%

Outlook:   As Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Alan Bollard put an end to his official cash rate hike cycle, business confidence is expected to slightly increase.  Pessimism is expected to dominate, but overall sentiment is expected to shift to a more positive outlook from Decemberââ,¬â"¢s data.  Borrowing costs remain the primary threat to companies, while a stubbornly high currency continues to hurt sales abroad posting in at a close second on business leadersââ,¬â"¢ minds.  Further, domestic investors are looking overseas for rewarding opportunities, on expectations that businesses at home will be hard pressed to meet earnings estimates.  With rates held steady, inflation and consumer spending should slow down at an easier pace.

Previous:  Business confidence fell to a five-year low in December as companies forecast the economy going into a recession as high borrowing costs lower profit margins.  Twenty-six percent of companies expect a sales slowdown, as opposed to 25 percent who predict a rise.   About 67 percent believe the economic state of the country will gradually worsen in the coming months, while only 5 percent feel it will get better.  When surveyed about profits, 44 percent expect net profits to shrink, contrary to the 20 percent anticipating greater profits.  Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard increased interest rates to 7.25 percent in December, the ninth consecutive hike since January 2004, in an effort to keep consumer spending in control.  As a result, businesses have been gradually lowering their earnings forecasts; some even predict the economy is headed for a recession.  Bollard left the official cash rate unchanged in January, stating that rates will remain steady in the medium term to curb inflation.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.