1. UK GfK Consumer Confidence
2. Canadian Gross Domestic Product
3. US Gross Domestic Product
4. US Chicago Purchasing Managers Survey
5. US Consumer Confidence

U.K. GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (FEB)(10:30 GMT, 5:30 EST)
Consensus: -4
Previous: -3

Outlook:  Although keeping in time with the previous reading, consumer confidence is expected to remain stable in Europe's second largest economy as economic improvements remain imminent.  Housing prices have continued to remain stable, even slightly rising in the previous reading.  According to the most recent report by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, housing price balances climbed positive by 9 percent, following an 8 percent jump seen in December.  Additionally, retail sales figures remain higher overall, rising 6 out of the last 7 months of 2005 before declining in the month of January.  Subsequently, the overall positive sentiment looks to remain further prompting central bankers to keep the current repurchase rate at 4.5 percent.  Remaining preventive against inflation, the decision looks to lend to potential upside in the underlying major.

Previous:  Consumer confidence rose better than expected in the month of January to a six month high reading of -3.  With expectations of a -7 print, the improved number should be warmly accepted as it bounces from the doldrums of a -9 seen in the month of December.  Attributed to the rise looks to be suggestions of stabilization in the housing sector as consumers grow increasingly confident in their purchases.  According to recent surveys, including Nationwide and RICS, housing prices have turned up recently from their bottom, rising for the seventh month running.  As a result, retail sales increased for the fifth month in December while manufacturing has rebounded in time, indicative that personal consumption has returned if only momentarily.  This will ultimately contribute to current preemptive inflationary policy as central bankers continue to be aware of rising prices with a revitalization of domestic consumption.  Adding to pound strength in the near term, market notions are looking for a stabilized 4.5 repurchase rate in the region.

Canadian GDP (MoM) (DEC) (13:30 GMT, 8:30 EST)
Consensus: 0.3%
Previous: 0.2%

Outlook: Gross Domestic Product growth in Canada is expected to have increased to a rate of 0.3% in December, supporting the likelihood that growth in the fourth quarter of last year will register at 2.6%.  This will be the tenth consecutive quarter of GDP growth in the nation.  As in the previous month, December's economic expansion is most probably a result of strong consumer spending.  While wholesale and manufacturing figures may suffer from high input prices, namely energy factors, sales at the retail level will be inflated from holiday exuberance.  However, the pattern of quarterly growth for the past two years in Canada may begin to slow in 2006.  As the Bank of Canada continues to tighten rates, consumer enthusiasm may begin to decrease.  Consumer participation may also start to dawdle from its current pace as Canadian citizens begin to feel the effects of an entire year of crippling petroleum prices. 

Previous: The Canadian economy expanded at a rate of 0.2% in November 2005 in reflection of a pattern of heavy consumption.  Over the month, retail sales increased by 1.3%.  Much of this gain in spending resulted from the purchasing of automobiles, which have been incredibly popular among Canadian consumers well after auto manufacturers ceased to offer attractive discounts earlier in the year.  Also contributing to the monthly expansion in GDP was a rise in construction activity of 0.7%.  Wary that such enthusiastic patterns of consumption may eventually push Canadian production to its capacity in order to meet consumer demand, the Bank of Canada raised interest rates in late January for the fourth consecutive time.  However, the central bank's battle to contain inflation may not be one of significant duration.  High energy prices in 2005 may eventually begin to curb fervent spending, leading to a more tamed pace of growth and less fear of inflation.  

U.S. GDP Annualized (4Q) (13:30 GMT, 8:30 EST)
Consensus: 1.6%
Previous: 4.1%

Outlook: After massive expansion from July to September, economic growth in the United States is expected to have slowed to a pace of 1.6% in the fourth quarter.  Although a GDP growth rate of 1.6% is higher than the initially issued figure of 1.1%, the slowdown in expansion will represent a break in the country's longest quarterly growth spurt since the mid 1980's.  Just as in the previous quarter, consumer spending will have a momentous effect on GDP growth in the fourth quarter.  Except this time, the effect will not be positive.  In the period from October to December, consumer spending expanded at its slowest pace since 2001.  This is largely the result of a huge drop-off in automobile sales in October following the end of manufacturer discount incentives.  Also, surging oil prices following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita will probably show their effect on spending in the fourth quarter.  Lagging growth towards the end of 2005 does not mean that inflation will no longer be a threat in 2006.  The slip in expansion is most likely a periodic dip and growth is expected to return to its speedy pace in the first quarter of the New Year.  Business sentiment is strong, which will translate into strong capital expenditures.  Additionally, historically low levels of unemployment and increasing wages may re-encourage spending on the retail level. 

Previous: The U.S. economy picked up to a roaring pace of growth in the third quarter of 2005 when it grew at a rate of 4.1%, up from 3.3% the previous quarter.  Negative effect from the Gulf Coast hurricanes was less than expected as consumer spending and manufacturing continued to expand.  Automobile sales were the largest contributor to consumer spending as auto-makers issued heavy discounts until the end of the summer.  This pushed the rate of growth in consumer spending to 4.1%, the fastest it had been all year.  Spending, which accounts for 70% of the nation's economy, had also benefited from a strong employment environment.  Zealousness towards spending was also reflected in housing market activity.  New housing starts took on an annual rate of 2.1 million, up from 2.04 million in the previous quarter.  Improvements in productivity accounted for much of the increase in manufacturing output, which helped corporate profits over the quarter.  Although inflation in general increased over the period of economic expansion because of steep energy prices, the core price indicators were relatively tame.  

Chicago Purchasing Managers Survey (FEB)(15:00 GMT, 10:00 EST)
Consensus: 58.1
Previous: 58.5

Outlook:  Expected to remain relatively unchanged, the February reading of the Chicago Purchasing Managers survey is expected to boast another expansive suggestion, printing a reading of 58.1.  Lending to the bullish bias are two stronger manufacturing surveys supplied by the New York and Philadelphia regions.  Manufacturing activity in the New York region rose to 20.3 from a 20.12 percent seen in the month of January as the Philly Fed Index vaulted completely past the consensus, jumping to a 15.4 print from the previous 3.3.  The higher figures not only lend to a higher Chicago report, but also lend to previous speculation of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.  Anticipating inflationary pressures, monetary authorities will more than likely remain cautious as higher rates of manufacturing are indicative of expansion and increasing prices, raising another 25 basis points.

Previous: Area business fell to a reading of 58.5 in the month of January according to the Purchasing Management Association of Chicago.  With a reading above 50 suggestive of expansion, the recent report lends to further dollar bullishness as it continues the trend of upticks in consumer spending and growth seen in the first quarter of 2006.  Although narrowing slightly from the 60.8 figure seen in December, the slight dips looks to be negligent as it is representative of underlying lower raw material costs as energy prices thinned out in the month.  Subsequently, the other sub-indexes remained in line or slightly lower with the employment component remaining healthy at a 50.2 reading.  With the Chicago area boasting the second largest concentration of factory workers, the report lends to further trader optimism that Federal Reserve officials will be raising rates in March.

U.S. Consumer Confidence (FEB) (15:00 GMT, 10:00 EST)
Consensus: 104.5
Previous: 106.3

Outlook: Consumer confidence in the United States as measured by the Conference Board Index is expected to decline over February as the indicator is predicted to issue a reading of 104.5.  The decline in confidence comes after January's increase to the highest level in three years.  Although energy prices began to trend downward at the end of January, consumers feel that the longer term trend in expensive fuel costs will make it difficult to pay home heating bills in spite of low unemployment rates and rising wages.  As temperatures were lower than expected in February after a relatively warm January, the cumulative effect of expensive energy will force consumers to tighten their pockets from January.  Even though an index value of 104.5 indicates a decline in confidence from the previous month, the estimated reading is still relatively strong, suggesting that consumer sentiment may serve as a sturdy base for a rebound in spending.  If unemployment continues to fall and hourly wages keep on their recent upward trend, consumption in the U.S. economy will be able to spring back from a brief falter at the end of 2005.

Previous: In January, consumer confidence in the U.S. improved for the second straight month when the Conference Board Index climbed to 106.3 from 103.8.  This was the highest reading since June of 2002.  The largest reason for the jump in the index was the fact that consumers were more optimistic about current conditions, especially employment, than they had been in the previous four years.  While enthusiastic about economic conditions at the time of the survey, consumers did not express optimism in their views of conditions in coming months.  In fact, consumer expectations for the future had actually declined on the month as the gap between current and future condition sentiment maintains considerable width.  January's overall increase in consumer confidence, however, may be a signal that consumption will rebound in 2006 after spending toward the end of last year fell off significantly.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.