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Forex Economic Alerts for March 1
By John Kicklighter | Published  02/28/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Forex Economic Alerts for March 1
  1. Australian Gross Domestic Product
  2. Euro zone PMI Manufacturing
  3. U.S. ISM Manufacturing
  4. U.S. Personal Income / Spending

Australian Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (4Q) (00:30 GMT; 19:30 EST)
Consensus:   3.0%
Previous:  2.6%

Outlook:   Australia's economy, the fifth largest in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to have quickened its pace of growth in the final quarter of 2005 by 0.8 percent from the three months ending in September.  While consumer spending and a booming housing market, both strong contributors to expansion in the previous quarter, cooled the final three months of the year; many economists believe that an increase in business spending had more than offset the deceleration.  Consumers reigned in their aggressive spending habits in the fourth quarter after gasoline prices spiked to record highs which further amplified consistently expensive lending rates effects.  Retail sales and building approvals over the period, though stronger than those of the previous quarter, were both below the longer-term average.  Aussies' ability to continue spending can partially be attributable to sustained wage growth and an unemployment rate near its recent historical low.  Conversely, business investment is expected to have supplied the economy's growth to expected levels.  In the final month of the year, manufacturing activity accelerated to a six month high and exports surged to a record A$16.27 billion - primarily on the back of raw material producers.  If capital expenditure does prove the new backbone of growth for Australia, the improvements to facilities will help to stem inflation due to capacity constraints.  Consequently, RBA Governor Ian Macfarlane's statement that rates are more likely to go up than down in the future may be suspect to revisions.

Previous:  Growth in Australia's A$860 billion economy slowed significantly in the third quarter of the year to a 0.2 percent pace of expansion from a much stronger 1.3 percent rate the quarter before.  The source of slower growth lied with a drop in government spending and exports that complimented the degrading pace of consumer spending and a waning housing market.  Australia's government cut its spending by 5.2 percent in the third quarter.  Shipments abroad were also a draw on growth.  Aussie goods destined for foreign consumption fell 2.3 percent for the period led by a 3.5 percent crimp in mining.  Raw material producers, long suppliers of growth, saw their pace of sales slip in the quarter after seeing prices for the goods stall after long periods of uninterrupted growth.  However, despite the drop in growth for the quarter before, the annual pace of expansion only edged back to 2.6 percent from 2.7 percent in the three months ending in June.  The annual measure was salvaged by the slow shift of growth led by consumer spending habits to a regime of growth led by business spending.

Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing Survey (FEB) (09:00 GMT; 04:00 EST)
Consensus:   54.1
Previous:  53.5

Outlook:   Manufacturing in the European region is on a track to report its eighth consecutive month of growth - indicated by a survey reading of 50 or above.  A market consensus of a rise in manufacturers' optimism to 54.1 comes in line with a sharp decline in oil prices that will allow producers to meet the steady foreign demand that has carried orders over the past quarters' steady decline in domestic demand.  Crude prices fell from its perch near record-level prices at $69 in the end of January and the beginning of February to below $58.  While exports over the previous month have remained unfettered by the higher energy prices, the decline will only serve to improve the picture.  With global demand riding off of strong growth in the world's largest economies, the biggest issue for European manufacturers was the cost of filling the incoming orders while conserving profit margins.   This release is likely to hold particular importance at Friday's ECB monetary policy meeting.  The 18-member board had left the overnight lending rate unchanged at 2.25 percent after December's first rate hike in years.  An improvement in manufacturing is likely to go hand in hand with a rebound in the sector's employment index, which fell to 49.6 in January - its lowest level since September.

Previous:  The survey of European purchasing manufacturers edged slightly lower to 53.5 in January from a 16-month high 53.6 in the final month of 2005.  Continued optimism for the month found its support from the strength in exports that have held the overall measure steady in the face of wavering domestic consumption numbers.   European consumers' confidence was delivered a hit at the end of the year with the first increase in the jobless rate in over two years in December.  Coupled with rebounding energy prices and an uncertain political environment, consumers were left with little choice but to control their spending.  However, orders from abroad remained healthy with a 7 percent drop in the euro from a year ago further stimulating demand for European goods.  Europe's largest economy, Germany, contributed a particularly significant addition to the area's PMI read.  The German manufacturing index rose an unexpected 55 in January from 53.6 before as orders for plant and machinery surged 12 percent for the same month.  Additionally, the rise in the PMI elevated confidence among business leaders to a 5 year high; which is likely to leak optimism into subsequent months.

US ISM Manufacturing (FEB) (15:00 GMT; 10:00 EST)
Consensus:   55.5
Previous:  54.8

Outlook:   US manufacturing is expected to assist higher employment and incomes in February to help facilitate the rebound in growth expected in the first quarter of the year.  The Institute of Supply Manager's index of manufacturing is expected to show the industry snapped its four months of consecutive declines with a rise in the measure to 55.5.  Regional indicators have already cast their support for the national measure.  Philadelphia-area manufacturing jumped to 15.4, the highest level since August, in February according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.  New York's Empire index provided a more reserved increase to 20.31 from 20.12 in December.  It is also looking up for some of the component gauges, especially employment, prices paid and new orders.  New order's contraction in January will likely not be repeated in February as domestic consumers were relieved of higher energy costs for the period.  For the same reason, prices paid should throttle back to conserve manufacturers' profits.   A turn for the better in employment is also expected given recent data.  First-time claims for unemployment benefits held below 300,000 for the seventh consecutive week in the week ending February 25th, the longest such string since the middle June/July of 2000. 

Previous:  There was somewhat of a mixed feeling for the ISM manufacturing indicator in January.  While the 54.8, less-than-expected read marked the fourth consecutive monthly decline; the manufacturing sector has posted growth (a read above 50) for 32 consecutive months.  Over the previous month, contractions in new orders, hiring plans and a jump in the prices paid component narrowed the overall read lower.  The hiring gauge fell to 51.3 in January from 53.6 the month before despite the biggest rise in employment for the period since November and the jobless rate falling to a four and a half year low 4.7 percent.  Prices paid on the other hand received a sturdy boost to 65.0 as crude prices at near September highs heaped an expensive burden on profit margins.  A drop in new orders however was tempered by a large increase in export orders as global consumers splurged on American produced goods on higher confidence.  The exports gauge jumped from 54.3 in December to 58.5.  The other highlight for the release was the decline in customers' inventories.  As clients run through their stores, the need for new orders in the coming months grows.

US Personal Income (JAN) (13:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
Consensus:   0.6%
Previous:  0.4%

US Personal Spending (JAN) (13:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
Consensus:   1.0%
Previous:  0.9%

Outlook:  US shoppers are expected to have continued to relax their purse strings over the opening month of they year being well supported by higher income and roaring confidence.  While average hourly earnings rose 0.4 percent for a second consecutive month in a row, total disposable income actually rose 0.6 percent.  Incomes have been buttressed by demand.  The available labor pool dwindled to 4.7 percent in January, the lowest it has been since July of 2001, as businesses boost their staff as well as other resources in a bid to increase capacity and meet burgeoning demand at home and abroad.  This, taken along with continually falling gasoline prices, led American consumers' level of confidence to hit a three and a half year high.  A readiness to spend has already shown through in some data sets.  Auto sales accelerated to a 17.6 million unit clip and retail sales surged 2.3 percent in January.  If spending numbers post in line with expectations, it is likely to pique the interest of monetary policy officials.  Inflation accelerated to a 4.0 percent annual pace in January.  This is well beyond the Federal Reserve's tolerance bank and is already likely to require action.  However, if spending remains strong, expectations of waning domestic spending to be replaced by business investment could be premature and the hawkish regime may need to be held that much longer.

Previous:  Consumers spending held stable through the end of the year according to a report revealing personal consumption rose 0.9 percent in the final month of the year, the largest monthly increase in five.   Americans willingness to spend in December was encouraged by a rise in incomes that has already shown its colors in retail sales as well as those for autos.  Auto sales slowed to a recent historical low 14.7 million unit annual pace in October, yet they have made some positive progress from then.  Total vehicles sales posted a strong recovery by setting a 17.2 million pace in December.  Similarly sales at retailers have kept to their increasing track with a 0.4 bump following November's 0.9 percent rise.  Continued redemption of gift cards from the holiday season is partially responsible for the rise.  This increase in spending habits was made possible by a 0.4 percent rise in personal income.  Disposable income was actually 5.4 percent higher from the same month a year before.  Despite the strength in spending and income, a caution flag was thrown to the savings level.  Americans spend nearly $42 billion beyond their means last year leading the rate of personal savings to drop to a 1933 low -0.5 percent.  With the savings rate so low, there is potential for consumers to be hit particularly hard if a unforeseen economic slowdown were to take the market in the near future.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.