"There is a crack in every thing God has made," said Emerson.
The truth is that the feds can control either the quantity of the nation's money or the quality of it. At the heart of the world's next - and probably greatest - financial crisis is the sad fact that they cannot do both at the same time. Alas, there is always some catch...some restraint...some skunk in the woodpile. We cannot grow wiser without growing older. We cannot grow richer in the future without forgoing the chance to enjoy our money in the present. We cannot make the Devil's food cake of an expanding money supply without the gooey spoons and burnt pans of inflation hidden somewhere in the kitchen sink.
Next month, the feds will cease reporting the M3 figure. Thenceforth, it will be harder to figure out at what rate the U.S. money supply is expanding. That is to say, it will be harder to know how much money the feds are hoping to steal from the world's savers.
Yes, dear reader, the great American Empire faces the future, not with grace and resolve, but denial, delusion, deceit, and more debt.
Will the Bernanke Fed protect the quality of the dollar, or will it tend to favor the quantity of it? We already know the answer. He has told us
himself: he will hire helicopters to drop the green paper all over the country, if it comes to that, just to make sure the quality of the nation's currency does not improve. In Bernanke's big, black book of economic alchemy, there is no worse sin for a central banker than to allow deflation, otherwise known as an increase in the value of money.
And so, the feds deceive in order to continue their delusions of power, grandeur and mediocrity. Yes, they say that the current economy is nothing special. It is mediocre - just the way it ought to be.
What? Is the yield curve not upside down? Do Americans not spend more than they earn (the savings rate is net negative) for the first time since the Great Depression? Are house prices not at record levels, after more than $5 trillion in appreciation since 2001? Are inventories of unsold houses not also at record levels? Is the country not at war (for the first time
ever) with an unnamed enemy? Will the feds not borrow half a trillion dollars in the next fiscal year, while the country buys $800 billion more from foreigners than it sells to them? Did gold not outperform all major asset classes last year? Are all these things not exceptional? Surely, they are anything but mediocre.
We suspect that increases in the money supply will also be exceptional in the years to come - even spectacular. We further suspect that it was to avoid noticing these exceptional increases in M3 that the government decided to stop reporting the figures.
Eventually, of course, the inflation news will get out.
"But how about the inflation-price statistics that are announced monthly?" asked Richard Russell yesterday. "For instance, the latest CPI figures show a rise of 0.7% in January or at an inflation rate of almost 9%. To hide this the Fed depends on the ridiculous 'core inflation' rate, which eliminates food and energy. How about this - the core rate has been lower than the overall gain in the CPI for 39 consecutive months. That's the longest such stretch since the government started computing the core rate back in the 1950s."
What a shock! Government quants created the "core" measure in order to eliminate the volatility of food and energy prices. This would give us a more accurate and consistent picture of inflation, they said. What it really does is persistently understate the actual inflation figure.
Lies, lies, lies...and more lies. But, what do you expect, dear reader? Yet, who doesn't like lies...so long as they are flattering?
*** Let's say you agree. The five Big Es are reshaping the world: the Empire is peaking out; there's an Exodus of money and power from West to East; the Economic cycle has turned against us; the Experimental money system - with no gold backing - is doomed; and the days of cheap Energy are over. So what? What do you do?
As we wrote a few days ago, we doubt that these big trends are easily tradable. You can't buy stocks in China and relax. Nor can you be sure that energy stocks are not already overpriced. And as for the stock market itself, yes it is bound to turn down. But when? And how? It could be that stock prices remain nominally stable for the next 10 years, while inflation lowers real stock values.
Probably the surest trend is the rise of gold and yet, even gold is not guaranteed to follow any known time schedule. In fact, gold is in "correction" mode right now, or should be. The price could fall to $500, before beginning the next big move upward.
So what do you do?
First, lower expectations. Forget about trying to stay young forever...and forget about making money from your investments. The whole idea is a bit of a fraud anyway. Why should you get richer without working? The best you should hope for is to earn a reasonable amount for allowing someone else to use your savings. You are giving up something: current enjoyment. You deserve to get something in return. Over the last 200 years, the real return from lending savings has been between 3% and 6%. If you are able get that kind of return, you should take it happily.
The trouble is, government notes and bonds don't give you that much. After inflation and taxes, the net return is negative - no matter how far out you go. What's worse, the rising price of gold signals that the currency itself is in jeopardy. If gold were to go to $1,000 an ounce, you would lose more than half the value of your T-note (measured in gold). A fall in the dollar against other currencies could produce similar losses (though they might be more difficult to measure or understand).
Lower your expectations. Forget about building wealth. In these circumstances, the best you can hope for is that you will be able to prevent anything from knocking down the wealth you have already built. One way to do that is by buying things you like with value that is not subject to change. A house you enjoy, for example. Don't worry about selling it. Don't think about refinancing it. Don't even ask how much the neighbors got for their house down the street. Just buy it; enjoy it. Let it go at that.
Likewise, a business - not a stock - can be a decent thing to own. You must understand it and like it. If you do, you can forget about going public...or about selling it. Upon being asked being asked about what a normal life consisted of, Freud allegedly purports: love and work. A business of your own can provide you with the work - and income - you need.
There are also many "assets" that bring pleasure to their owners beyond capital gains: paintings, boats, farms, jewelry, vacation houses, cars, collectibles. Just don't expect to be able to resell at higher prices. On the other hand, many of these things are rare and irreproducible. If wealth really is migrating from West to East, it is possible that these things will migrate, too - at higher prices. We have heard of Chinese and Japanese entrepreneurs buying French chââ,¬Â°teaux, and then dismantling them, stone by stone, in order to rebuild them in Asia. Increasingly, great works of art are sold to bidders from the Orient. Indian billionaires are building fabulous collections of cars, planes...even locomotives.
Of course, you will need cash to pay expenses. Not knowing the future, all we can suggest is that you keep your cash as safe as possible, so that the future does not steal it from you. Put some in foreign currency CDs, for example, and put some in gold. If there is one big winner as the Big Es evolve, it is likely to be gold. The Big Es are big changes, and big changes come with big risks. When people feel threatened they tend to turn to God, guns and gold. All three might be useful, or even necessary. Gold is likely to be profitable, too.
Bill Bonner is the President of Agora Publishing. For more on Bill Bonner, visit The Daily Reckoning.