1. Australian Trade Balance
2. UK CIPS PMI Services Survey
3. University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Survey

Australian Trade Balance (JAN) (00:30 GMT; 19:30 EST)
Consensus:   -1300M
Previous:  -1168M

Outlook:   Australia's 45-consecutive monthly trade deficit string is ready to rack up its 46 in January with a A$1.3 billion shortfall.  The unfavorable balance is expected to feel pressure from both the supply-side with businesses look to increase investments in machinery and equipment and the demand-side as Chinese demand cools.  While import pressures eased through the final months of 2005, primarily due to the continued contraction of energy prices, both subtle and sharp factors will play into January's inflow of foreign goods.  The sudden increase in imports will come from the resurgence of crude oil prices that had drifty to monthly lows in December.  A momentous move higher in the commodity's price to near record levels is likely to factor into the notional measure of trade, yet its quick retracement the following month will likely subtract its influence as quickly as it came.  More gradual for imports growth will be Australian businesses desire to expand their production capacity by purchasing more machinery and equipment from countries like Japan.  On the other side of the scales is the unusual event of the Chinese lunar new years.  Being one of the largest consumer of Australian goods destined for outside the country, the observance of the holiday may have had a large affect on export numbers as it did on trade between China and Japan.  The RBA is likely to ignore any sudden spikes in the trade deficit for its policy decision on its April 4th meeting, but continued strength in exports will likely provide a stable pin on growth that could allow for more attention to be paid to inflation.

Previous:  The trade deficit in the fifth largest economy in the Asia-Pacific rim was halved in December as a 7 percent surge in exports placed the shortfall at a five month low.  Sales abroad were predominantly paced by steady increases in both the demand and prices of Australian-mined metals which, along with other commodities, account for fully 60 percent of total exports.  Shipments of non-rural goods, including metals, jumped 10 percent from the period before.  Leading the metal-driven increase were copper, aluminum, gold and zinc.  And the destination for the majority of these shipments was China.  Australia's shipments to China were worth A$8.91 billion over the final six months of the year in 2005.  Exports have long been dormant in terms of adding value to the economies overall growth, but the steady increase in demand for Australian-produced goods seems to finally be lending its fair share to growth, and not a minute to soon.  Economic expansion recently slowed to a yearly low pace as the housing boom continues to deflate and consumer spending looses its vigor.

CIPS PMI Services Survey (FEB) (9:30 GMT; 4:30 EST)
Consensus: 57.1
Previous: 57.0

Outlook: Economists estimate that the Chartered Institute of Purchasing Manager's survey will show a strong service sector in the United Kingdom as the Institute's general index is expected to issue a reading of 57.1.  February's predicted growth in services is very similar to actual figures in January, which although were lower than December's 20-month high, still represented rapid service sector growth.  Supporting the case for a strong index value is the fact that in last month's survey, managers pushed business expectations up to 75.1*the highest level since March of 2005.  One of the critical decisions managers will have to make in the midst of this growth is whether or not to pass on their increasing costs to consumers.  As utility and gas costs increase, profitability continues to suffer.  Eventually, managers will have no choice but to increase average prices charged to compensate for rising input prices. 

Previous: Expansion in the U.K.'s service sector increased at a slower rate in January than it had in December as the CIPS PMI Survey came in at 57.0, down from 57.9 the previous month.  The relatively high value above 50, although lower than December's, suggests a quick rate of growth in British service industries, which bodes well for the U.K. as services account for nearly 70% of the country's GDP.  According to the survey's input and output price sub-indices, input price inflation for service providers is not being passed along to consumers.  While the average input price index rose from 58.5 to 58.6, the average prices charged index fell from 53.5 to 52.6.  Much of the decline in the overall index value from December to January stems from the fact that as more and more business remains outstanding, fewer new orders are being received.  Unsurprisingly, the survey's decline in the new business index was mirrored by a drop in employment levels. 

University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Indicator (FEB F) (14:45 GMT; 9:45 EST)
Consensus:   87.5
Previous:  87.4

Outlook:   The final consensus on February's confidence figure is expected to be little changed from the three-month low 87.4 posted for the preliminary report.   Consumers in the world's largest economy have showed their optimism has slipped for two consecutive months in February as colder weather diverted more disposable income and worries over job creation in the coming quarters wears on their high spirits.  After experiencing one of the mildest Januarys in the almanac, Americans seemed to be caught off guard by February's cold snap.  The colder weather elevated gasoline and heating oil prices as demand ramped up.  According to the Department of Energy, home-heating costs are 24 percent higher this winter than the last; and the unwelcome, cold gales only exaggerated the change in confidence for unprepared homeowners.  The job market has also become suspect.   Because of a sour employment outlook, the expectations gauge of the index dipped to an October low 83.3.  However, looking at current labor market data, these fears seem unwarranted - for now.  Following on the heels of a five year low, 4.7 percent unemployment rate in January first time claims this year continue to average below 285,000 compared to just under 332,000 in 2005.  Also, the strong surge in annual wage growth in January to a 35 month high will also help to hold over confidence for the coming months and press on inflation as consumers disseminate their earnings into the economy.

Previous:  Confidence among US consumers, whose spending accounts for nearly 70 percent of growth, was revised lower to account for the first drop in the rebounding sentiment indicator in three months.   The preliminary indicator read a rise to a six month high 93.4 was adjusted lower to 91.2 after the full survey was conducted and Americans more fully reflected their worries over gasoline prices.  However, despite this change, optimism remained near its highest level since July as the labor market continued to shine and favorable weather stuck around.  The temperature was particularly important to households for the month.  With an unseasonably warm month, consumers were more inclined to shop and redeem gift cards while also enjoying lower home heating bills.  Since the crude supply disruption following the landfall of Katrina, prices for natural gas, heating oil and gasoline have declined precipitously.  Optimism had also found its support for the period from an unexpected decline in the unemployment rate from 4.9 percent in December to a four-year high 4.7 percent.  As these figures were released, officials became more and more confident that the expected rebound in growth and spending in the first quarter would be released.  Growth in consumer spending slowed to 1.1 percent in the final quarter of 2005 and is expected to accelerate to 3.5 percent the first three months of the new year.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.