EUR/USD - Euro bulls launched another massive assault against the dollar longs with a move collapsing greenback offers around the psychologically important 1.2000 handle, a level defended by the 38.2 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally and is further reinforced by the 50-day SMA. As euro bulls continue with their advance, a move above 1.2057, a level marked by the 200-day SMA will most likely see the pair advance toward 1.2116, a level marked by the 50.0 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally. In case greenback longs fail to push back the advancing single currency traders, a further move to the upside will most likely see the pair extend its gains toward 1.2189, a level established by the January 31 daily high. Indicators are mixed with positive momentum indicator diverging from negative MACD below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
USD/JPY - Japanese Yen longs remained in consolidation phase as the pair continued to tread in a sideways trading range with 50-day SMA at 116.69 confining upside momentum. In case Japanese yen bulls fail to take control of the price action, a move by the dollar longs will most likely see the USD/JPY head higher and make its way toward 117.38, a level established by the 23.6 Fib of the 104.16-121.46 USD rally, and with a confirmed break most likely targeting yen offers around 117.51, a level marked by the 20-day SMA. A further move on the part of the greenback longs will most likely see the pair head higher and wit ha move above the 118.00-119.00 zone target the yen offers around 119.36, a level defended by the February 3 daily high. A sustained momentum on the part of the greenback bulls will most likely see the dollar bulls push the pair toward the psychologically important 120.00 handle. Indicators are mixed with negative momentum indicator diverging from positive MACD above the zero line, while oversold Stochastic gives dollar longs a chance for a countermove.
GBP/USD - British pound longs continued to keep the pair above the psychologically important 1.7500 handle, but once against failed to advance beyond the greenback offers around 1.7550-1.7600 zone, a zone defended by the combination of the 50-day SMA and 38.2 Fib of the 1.8500-1.7048 USD rally. In case pound longs fail to hold the pair above the 1.7500 figure, a reversal will most likely see the pair head toward 1.7447, a level marked by the 20-day SMA and with a further collapse of the sterling offers targeting 1.7391, a level defended by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.8500-1.7048 USD rally. Another move to the downside will most likely see GBP/USD collapse toward 1.7312, a level marked by the July 8 daily low and with sustained momentum on the part of the greenback longs will most likely seeing the pair extend its decline 1.7200 figure and target pound bids around 1.7188, a level established by the January 3 daily low. Indicators are mixed with positive momentum indicator diverging from negative MACD below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
USD/CHF - Swiss Franc bulls joined its European neighbor and staged a sharp rally against the dollar with the pair slicing through the greenback bids at 1.3041, a level established by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.2240-1.3285 USD rally and is further reinforced by the 20-day SMA at 1.3076, like a hot knife through butter. As Swissie bulls remain in control of the price action, a further move to the downside will most likely see the pair break below the psychologically important 1.3000 handle and target the dollar bids around 1.2941, a level marked by the 50-day SMA. A further move on the part of the Swiss Franc traders will most likely see the USD/CHF take on the greenback defenses around 1.2890, a level marked by the 38.2 Fib of the 1.2240-1.3285 USD rally and is further reinforced by the 200-day SMA at 1.2853. Indicators are favoring the dollar longs with both positive momentum indicator and MACD above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
USD/CAD - Canadian dollar bulls in control of the price action as USD/CAD continued to set new multi-year lows. As Loonie longs push the pair lower, a sustained break the 1.1300 figure will most likely see the Canadian dollar longs test greenback bids around at 1.1249, a level marked by the 1.00 Fib Extension of the Nov-Dec CAD rally. A further move on the part of the Loonie longs will most likely see the pair extend its decline toward the psychologically important 1.1000 handle, a level defended by the 1.382 Fib Extension of the Nov-Dec CAD rally at 1.1040, thus seeing the Canadian dollar enter into a trend mode. A break below 1.1000 will most likely see the pair tumble further and test the US dollar defenses around 1.0910, a level marked by the 1.618 Fib Extension of the Nov-Dec CAD rally. Indicators are favoring Canadian dollar longs with both negative momentum indicator and MACD treading below the zero line, while oversold Stochastic gives the greenback traders a chance to retaliate.
AUD/USD - Australian dollar bulls failed to test the greenback bids around the psychologically important .7500 handle, a level defended by the 38.2 Fib of the .7798-.7236 USD rally at .7521 and is further reinforced by the 200-day SMA. As pair remains in a .7350-.7600 trading range that dominated the overall price action since the beginning of the year, a move below .7441, a level marked by the 50-day SMA will most likely see the pair extend its decline toward .7413, a level marked by the 23.6 of the .7798-.7236 USD rally. However in case Aussie longs manage to hold the pair above the 50-day SMA a further move to the upside will most likely see AUD/USD head above the psychologically important .7500 handle and target the greenback offers around .7577, a level defended by the January 16 daily high. Indicators are mixed with positive momentum indicator diverging from negative MACD below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
NZD/USD - New Zealand dollar longs pushed the pair higher but failed to advance above the US dollar offers around .6690, a level established by the 50.0 Fib of the .5914-.7466 NZD rally. A reversal will most likely see the NZD/USD head lower and with a move below .6600 figure most likely seeing the pair resume its downward trend. A further move to the downside will most likely see greenback bulls test Kiwi's bids around .6507, a level established by the 61.8 Fib of the .5914-.7466 NZD rally and with confirmed break below the psychologically important .6500 handle most likely seeing the pair head lower and test the bids around .6414, September 4, 2004 daily low. Indicators are favoring US dollar longs with both negative momentum indicator and positive MACD above the zero line, while ADX above 25 at 30.36 signals an existence of a trend, not a direction of one, with oversold Stochastic adding to a trending outlook.
Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.