Energies
A much needed bounce in energies this week is setting up another bear entry and seasonal downturn.  I would look for the 50% retracement resistance point to hold on April crude, but allow for the Fib 61.8 to be below your stop (recommended stop on April at 66.05).  Also, look to sell calls on May when April hits $64.40.  The market is heading into a seasonally poor demand period with a lot of over-supply so look for politics to be the driving force to any bull run beyond this point.  The IAEA will make a critical announcement, likely on Monday, determining what possible action to take on Iranââ,¬â"¢s nuclear issues.  OPEC meets on Wednesday and has little fanfare at this point.  They will of course try to rock the boat, with Mr. Nigeria himself making a commotion, but I do not suspect any reactionary move to a possible production cut will stick.

Financials
Stocks continue to hold the 1301 top on the S&P and Friday was a great reversal day for bears looking for some downside momentum.  I wouldnââ,¬â"¢t be shocked if the market took another shot at the highs next week, but overall this is an excellent opportunity to buy bear put spreads.  Bonds gave me a good ââ,¬ËœI told you soââ,¬â"¢ opportunity as the April 111 puts tripled on a major technical break that is likely the beginning of a big run down in bond prices.  The dollar took a hit this week as the ECB raised rates and gave strength to the euro.  The Canadian soared to new highs once again and gave us bears an incentive to hibernate a bit until a better technical setup emerges.  The yen is a buy.

Grains
A big bounce in grains on Friday have bulls back in high gear.  Corn looks like a market ready to explode on a chart, and wheat looks good as well.  I am bullish with a quick exit trigger as the rally is likely to be short lived and be over long before the end of the month.  Rice remains avoidable until a better pattern emerges.

Meats
Cattle continues to self-destruct, and all those bears are saying expletives after two years plus of trying to catch the move and finally missing the real thing.  This move is far from over and the first bounce I would jump in with some bear put spreads, short futures with a stop above the island key reversal (91 on April) and any other leverage bear play that captures what should be a move to the mid-70s before the year is out.  USDA beef supplies are getting too high to make the meats long term bearish.  Hogs held 60.90 like a charm and is bullish until that technical mark is broken. 

Metals
Gold continues to offer dying upside momentum and strong indications of a some consolidation ahead of the upcoming failure.  Silver surged on Thursday as a minor strike in Mexicoââ,¬â"¢s biggest silver mine added to the fire.  It is critical, on a technical and psychological level, for silver to immediately reverse below $10 and to create a technical wash out of the price break that occurred this week.  If silver is not back below $10 within the next two weeks there will have been enough momentum built to surge the market even further.  However, if as I suspect it will, silver drops and closes below $10 then this will create the type of technical reversal needed to rock the metals market hard to the downside.  Copper will not be far behind the silver move.  While I recommended long palladium from near the price lows I suggest taking the profit and running in the near term.  Platinum is a sell.

Softs
Coffee has become a tough near term judgment call, as the bullish overtones to the market are met with nearly equal intraday selling pressure and the seasonal bearishness of the market.  My gut says this could easily be the lowest price you see coffee at this year and that a bull call spread allows to an unexpected leg down before the resumption of the bull trend.  OJ is a bull buy on a break to fresh contract highs.  Cotton is falling apart and July OTM puts are recommended.  Cocoa is a buy at these prices, and undervalued call premium is the way to go.  Lumber continues its slide and should see fresh lows on its way to 280.  Sugar had the 100 point plus meltdown and the bull run appears to be over.  This is a critical week, however, and fresh lows must be set to continue the momentum.

James Mound is the head analyst for www.MoundReport.com, and author of the commodity book 7 Secrets. For a free email subscription to James Mound's Weekend Commodities Review and Trade of the Month, click here.