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Forex Economic Alerts for March 8
By John Kicklighter | Published  03/7/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Forex Economic Alerts for March 8
  1. UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence
  2. Japanese Leading Economic Index
  3. Canadian Housing Starts
  4. RBNZ Rate Decision

UK Nationwide Confidence (FEB) (00:01 GMT; 19:01 EST)
Consensus:   n/a
Previous:  98

Outlook:   Although economists have not made official predictions regarding the Nationwide Building Society 's consumer confidence survey, other recently released indicators suggest that February sentiment may be on the soft side.  The similar GfK poll at the end of February revealed a drop in consumer confidence to -4 from -3 in January.  Additionally, the U.K.'s labor market has not shown any significant improvements from a dramatic weakening in 2005.  This has been reflected in poor spending patterns across the nation.  Having the most significant effect on Nationwide's consumer confidence survey is January's surge in oil prices.  With bleak employment prospects, stifling energy prices likely had an adverse effect on the psyche of the British consumer.  Declining consumer optimism has already been visible in contracting durable goods sales.  If the Bank of England does not have intentions of loosening policy any time soon, then clearly the Bank will not be counting on domestic consumption to jumpstart the nation's economy given the lack of consumer enthusiasm. 

Previous:  According to Nationwide, consumer confidence in January increased on more positive employment situations.  Nationwide's index rose to 98 from 97 the previous month.  Of those surveyed, 59% felt that many jobs were available in the British economy.  While not as high as November of 2005, this was an improvement from the 54% who felt the same way in December.  As the nation's present economic conditions improved in consumers' minds, expectations for the future decreased.  Only 13% of those surveyed felt that economic conditions would improve in coming months.  Nearly twice as many felt that conditions would worsen, while the majority of those surveyed felt that conditions would remain the same.  Although overall confidence improved on the month, the improvement was not drastic.  Similarly, sales at the retail level did not grow immensely.  While shoppers took advantage of post-holiday clearances, purchasing of food, clothing, and footwear were weaker than expected, reflecting the minimal gains in confidence. 

Japanese Leading Economic Index (JAN) (15:00 GMT; 10:00 EST)
Consensus:   85.0%
Previous:  81.1%

Outlook:   Japan's broadest index of expected economic activity over the coming three to six months is expected to rise for the second consecutive month in January as the country's consumers continue to push the economy into its long awaited inflationary condition.  Forecasts of January's leading index are for a rise of 85.0 percent for the fourth consecutive month of an optimistic tilt, the longest string since August of 2004.   A reading above 50.0 percent indicates those expected conditions to improve in the coming months outpaces those expecting it to decline.  January saw another slew of data to support optimism.  Consumers were met with a jobless rate still near its recent low and a fifth month of increased earnings.  This pushed consumer confidence to 49.5.   Though it is still below a majority of optimists, it is the highest level in the measure's short history.  While businesses were also feeling the positive affects of faster consumer spending, a 2.1 percent monthly decline in the value of exports accompanied the country's first trade deficit in five years in January.  Although this indicator, even if stellar, will not be the final straw for the Bank of Japan to finally abandon its ultra-loose monetary policy scheme; it will be an additional gauge of consumers' willingness to continue to spend and subsequently drive sustainable inflation.

Previous:  Citizens of the world's second largest economy were unexpectedly more confidence about the coming three to four month's in December as consumers and businesses were presented with a number of reasons to believe economic activity would continue to accelerate.  Backed by seven years of growth, confidence in Japan was further buoyed by recent data releases.  Businesses provided a generous portion of the improved sentiment evidenced by the tenth consecutive quarter of growing business investment.  Capital expenditure in the final three months of last year grew by 8.8 percent.   Confidence in growth prospects was also evident in the equities market.  The Nikkei 225 advanced to a fresh 5 year high in December as foreign and domestic investors backed the growing economy.  A confident Japanese consumer had also provided also leveraged the index higher.  A contraction in the jobless rate for December assisted a huge 1.6 percent increase in labor earnings to drive both spending and confidence for health to come.

Canadian Housing Starts (FEB) (13:15 GMT; 08:15 EST)
Consensus:   231.0k
Previous:  248.1K

Outlook:   The pace of Canadian housing starts is expected to have slowed last month as extraordinary factors gave way to a more normal environment in which lending rates and housing prices are making home ownership a more expensive investment.  Noticeably absent for the housing market in February was the quick change in the weather that brought temperatures down to normal levels.  In the beginning of January, temperatures were above freezing in Toronto, Canada's largest city; compared to a historical average 21 degrees Fahrenheit.  With these extraordinary factors removed in February, potential builders were left with higher mortgage rates and an already expensive housing market to temper demand.  Price growth in residences averaged 0.6 percent in the final quarter of 2005 * backed by years of strong expansion.  Even more of a burden for potential homeowners is mortgage rates.  Lending rates have risen sharply over the last year as lenders look to conserve their spreads over the benchmark lending rate.  After a steady diet of quarter point hikes in the overnight lending rate, the rate stood at 3.5 percent in February * a considerable difference from August's 2.5 percent rate.  In response, the most popular five year fixed mortgage rate has risen from 5.7 percent in June to 6.3 percent last month.  As housing starts slow in the coming months in response to higher lending rates, housing prices and the market as a whole will lend less of a hand to growth.

Previous:  Housing starts surged in December to their fastest annual pace since July as an unexpected jump in single family homes resulted from warmer weather and sustained confidence of an expanding economy with employment and wages to boot.   Those in the market for a new home broke ground on 248,100 units on an annual pace.  This surprise jump in starts was partially a carry over of a record 27.6 percent jump in building permits, the result of developers taking advantage of favorable building fees that would change in the beginning of the current year.  In January, the largest positive component for the rise was the most starts on single-family residents in 16 years.  The large increase in construction starts was partially attributable to unseasonably warm weather, but chief reason builders deemed it a good time to start building was sustained confidence in Canada's economy.  Growth in Canada for the final quarter of the year outpaced their major Trade partner the United States with a 2.5 percent expansion rate versus their more reserved 1.6 percent pace.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision (20:00 GMT; 15:00 EST)
Consensus: 7.25%
Previous: 7.25%

Outlook:   Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Alan Bollard is expected to keep interest rates unchanged this week to stabilize the economy.  Subsequently though, economists expect rates to remain high as threats of inflation remain imminent throughout the country.  Housing prices rose 17 percent in January while unemployment remained low at 3.6 percent with wages rising to record highs of 2.9 percent, encouraging inflation and consumer spending.  However, business confidence dropped to a negative 62% as borrowing costs remain the primary challenge to meeting earnings estimates.  Additionally, the trade deficit widened to -NZ$935.50M as imports surpassed expectations and exports fell short of estimates once again.  This supports the concerns that businesses face as foreign resources are dominating domestic interest and ultimate consumption.  In addition, building permits dropped to -10.8 percent from the previous month's advance of 21 percent, which may hurt the construction material and furnishings sectors.  The mixed data will encourage the board to maintain current rates in order to keep inflation between the legally required 1 percent to 3 percent target range.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.