1. BoJ Monthly Report
2. Swiss CPI
3. UK Industrial Production
4. BoE Rate Decision
5. Canadian Trade Balance
6. US Trade Balance

Bank of Japan Monthly Report (01:00 GMT; 20:00 EST)
Consensus:   0.0%
Previous:  0.0%

Outlook:   Japan's alternative to other countries' rate decision announcements, the Bank of Japan's monthly report is expected to reveal policy markers' desire to abandon the current, ultra-loose monetary policy and adopt positive lending rates soon.  Speculation that the bank would finally lift rates or decrease the available reserves to lenders had already been batted around during the previous meeting as the economy began to show signs of accelerating after third quarter lulls and inflation in consumer goods rolled into positive territory. Since the previous meeting, economic data has set rate hike speculation to a fevered pitch.  Summing one of the largest potential contributors in policy markers' purviews was consumer confidence.  Confidence in January edged ever closer to the 50.0 mark, denoting the level where the number of optimists outpace pessimists, despite a drop in household spending and a tick higher in the jobless rate.  This obstinate hold on sentiment bodes well for future spending habits and subsequently price growth.  Another indicator that was particularly telling of the health of the economy were preliminary GDP figures for the final quarter of 2005.  On an annual basis, growth in the world's second largest economy accelerated from 1.4 percent in the three months ending in September to 5.5 percent.  Furthermore, national inflation figures have firmly positioned themselves in positive territory with positive growth for three consecutive months and posting the fastest pace of price growth since 1998.  Given that all three criteria the BoJ had set out to consider a change in policy have been met, the only barrier to a hike are political heads calling for a hold on a shift in policy to help inflation and economic growth ripen.

Swiss Consumer Price Index (FEB) (06:45 GMT; 01:45 EST)  (MoM)  (YoY)
Consensus:    0.1%  1.2%
Previous:  -0.2%  1.3%

Outlook:   Switzerland's Consumer Price Index is expected to reflect a 0.1percent rise in consumer prices from January to February as companies gain room to increase prices in the face of consumer enthusiasm.  Trade data in the fourth quarter of 2005 revealed that Swiss imports had finally begun to rise at a faster pace than exports, suggesting a strengthening of domestic demand.  The Swiss National Bank felt that domestic sentiment had strengthened so much, in fact, that it decided to raise interest rates a quarter-point in December.  In January, consumer confidence in Switzerland rose to its highest point in nearly thirty years and unemployment fell to historical lows.  With an inclination towards spending and more money to spend as a result of increased employment, Swiss consumers will give businesses the room they need to begin increasing prices again.  Consequentially, this inflationary pressure in consumer goods is likely to convince the SNB to extend its tightening policy like many of Switzerland's trade partners.

Previous:   Consumer prices fell by 0.2 percent from December to January as Swiss companies continued to cut back prices in order to encourage consumer spending.  Much of Switzerland's growth in 2005 was export driven as the nation's trade surplus increased to 16-year highs.  Consumer expenditures, on the other hand, did not play a major role in GDP growth as crippling energy prices deterred Swiss households from superfluous purchasing.  As a result, businesses began cutting prices to convince consumers to spend more.  January's surge in oil prices mirrored the effect energy costs had on consumer prices in 2005.  With higher energy costs to cover, households were left with less to spend on other goods.  Once again, companies were forced to reduce prices in order to encourage spending.  Furthermore, the SNB's decision in December to raise interest rates made borrowing more expensive, which also served as a deterrent to spending in January.  As inclination towards domestic consumption suffers, Swiss businesses are forced to make pricing more attractive to consumers. 

UK Industrial Production (MoM) (JAN) (09:30 GMT; 04:30 EST)
Consensus: 0.2%
Previous: 0.2%

Outlook:  Factory activity is expected to have expanded a repeat 0.2 percent in January as higher input prices contended with a stingier domestic spender to support the already struggling sector.  Production, which accounts for some 15 percent of the UK economy, found likely found little relief from a more willing consumer, both domestic and foreign, for the month.  Historically, UK factories raise their price in January in an effort to roll on costs to the consumer after the holiday season. However, this January's increase may have been more of a necessity. Producers increased their prices 0.4 percent from December after a string of price cuts used to increase sales.  This time however, the price hike at factory gates was probably the product of the second largest increase in input prices on record.  Prices paid by producers rose 16.2 percent in January with crude oil and electricity bills skyrocketing.  Crude oil made a quick correction to $69 dollars per barrel in US trading while electricity in the UK was 51.1 percent higher than the same period a year before.  Industrial production has been contracting since January of 2005 and the sector's recession doesn't look like it will end soon enough.  Furthermore, producers' inability to contribute to growth will also play a role in the monetary policy committee deciding whether another rate cut will be required to help stimulate the broad economy in the months ahead. 

Previous:  Industrial production rose for the second consecutive month in December, the first back-to-back rise since May, assisted by better orders.  According to the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply's manufacturing index, new orders added to producers' books increased from November while those from foreign sources actually contracted to their lowest level in 7 months.  Domestic spending was showing some initial signs of revival in the final few months of the year even after higher energy prices weighed on British wallets and confidence.  However, the combined affects of expensive fuel prices relative to a year ago and a jobless rate that had risen for the four consecutive months to its highest level since April of 2003 has kept consumer spending from picking growth from the country's reserved economic growth pace.  UK shipments abroad were also having competing on the global level as other country's producers were finding it easier to absorb higher input costs.  Some immediate relief for the period was the result of corrections in some key materials.  Chief among these necessary goods was crude oil which hovered near six-month lows for most of the period.

Bank of England Rate Decision (12:00 GMT; 07:00 EST)
Consensus: 4.50%
Previous: 4.50%

Outlook:  There is a one-sided consensus for the Bank of England to hold its repo rate steady at 4.50 percent for the seventh consecutive meeting with data suggesting the pace of growth is picking up while inflation remains contained.  Since the Monetary Policy Committee's February 9th meeting, indicators have posted almost exclusively in favor of strong growth in the current quarter.  One of the most notable posts for the period was the jump in services.  Accounting for fully three-quarters for the economy, services grew at the fastest pace in nearly two years in February.  A positive tone was also established in consumer data.  Indicators revealing a steadily low claimant count rate, improving confidence and faster than expected household spending in the final quarter of last year have left the market keeping their interest rate bets off the table.  These initial figures will likely put the economy well on its way to meeting the central bank's predicted 2.7 percent growth rate for the present year after matching the slowest pace of growth in 12 years in 2005.  Conversely, a decision from policy officials to raise the lending rate has all but been laid to rest.
Inflation in January held to 1.95 percent, almost in line with the central bank's 2.0 percent target rate.  The only naysayer among the crowd remains Stephen Nickell, who has over the last three meetings said the bank's consumption and investment forecasts are too optimistic. Nickell's claims were partially vindicated by corporate spending, accounting for nearly 10 percent of the economy, that fell 1.0 percent in the final three months of the year.

Canadian International Merchandise Exchange (JAN) (13:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
Consensus: C$7.4B
Previous: C$7.7B

Outlook:  It is expected that Statistics Canada will report Canada's trade surplus contracted slightly to C$7.4 B in January as steady declines in natural gas prices and car shipments offset the more volatile advance in crude oil.  Demand from abroad for autos, the other large export out of Canada, were likely limited on the account of gasoline prices in destination markets returning to relative highs on global demand pangs.  Another sign of a decline in the notional level of exports were the value of natural gas shipments.  Canada's largest exported commodity, natural gas prices fell over 50 percent from December's record highs.  Strong sales abroad of Canadian goods, especially raw materials, have helped Canada's economy grow at a healthy rate for the past year but the 10 percent appreciation in the country's currency against their US counterpart could begin to decrease its assistance to growth. With that being said, the bank of Canada will consider this figure trade figure at future rate meetings to see if the decline in its contribution to growth will require a relaxing of their recent aggressive monetary policy stance.

Previous:  Canada's trade surplus unexpectedly widened to the second largest ever in December, climbing to C$7.7 billion on higher exports of natural gas and crude oil. Exports rose 3.9 percent to a record C$41.3 billion, led by a 12 percent gain in natural gas shipments to the Unites States. Other industries supplemented the effects of higher demand for Canada's abundant natural commodities. Machinery and equipment shipments rose 3.1 percent, and exports of industrial products such as metals rose 2.7 percent to a record C$7.43 billion.  Worthy of note for the period, the positive balance of trade with the US widened to a record C$11.6 billion.  This is significant given that about 85 percent of all export trade is done with the U.S.

US Trade Balance (JAN) (13:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
Consensus: -$66.5B
Previous: -$65.7B

Outlook:  Economists are expecting foreign trade in the U.S. to register a deficit of $66.5B in January.  If indeed economists' estimates are on par, the deficit will be the second worst monthly shortfall in history, next to last October's balance of -$67.9B.  As expected, January's surge in petroleum prices accounted for much of the gain in U.S. import bills.  In January, crude oil futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange averaged a price of $65.54 per barrel, significantly higher than December's average of $59.45.  Furthermore, sales in January increased at their fastest rate in a year-and-a-half, reflecting a growing American appetite for foreign-made goods, especially audio/video electronics.  If such a pattern of trade imbalance continues, the U.S. deficit will be a drag on GDP growth in 2006 as it was in 2005.  However, rapid growth in Europe and Asia may keep the trade scenario from worsening this year.  The U.S. trade balance could very well look much better by the end of the year as foreign growth will give US exports a much needed lift.  Currency appreciation in these growing foreign economies will further magnify the effect, making U.S. goods more affordable than they have recently been on account of a relatively strong U.S. dollar. 

Previous:  December's -$65.7B trade balance pushed the U.S. to a record-large annual deficit.  Intra-industry trade proved to work in favor of weaker economies over the month.  While U.S. exports increased to an all-time high of $111.5B on the sale of business equipment, industrial materials, pharmaceuticals and automobiles; imports also surged to a new record of $177.2B on many of the same goods.  Once again, the worsening deficit pressed U.S. legislators to bring more complaints against China's currency policy in spite of the fact that the U.S. trade deficit with China narrowed by 11.9 percent from the previous month.  A rapidly expanding U.S. economy and strengthening labor market has proved most lucrative for computer component and audio/video equipment manufacturers abroad.  To no surprise, as the price of crude oil and refined products fell from third quarter highs, the value of imported petroleum products also fell.  However, imports of industrial supplies increased on the whole as a result of a rise in shipments of iron and steel.  Canada being a large trading partner of the U.S. in industrial supplies, the nation's deficit with its neighbor to the north continued to widen over December.  

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.