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Dollar Bulls Prepare for Volatility
By Jamie Saettele | Published  03/9/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Dollar Bulls Prepare for Volatility

EUR/USD - Euro bulls managed to push the pair above the 1.1900 figure as EUR/USD stalled above 1.1864, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally. As dollar bulls consolidate their gains and once again push the pair below 1.1900 figure, a move below 1.1864 level, will most likely see the pair head lower and target euro bids around 1.1778, a level marked by the December 30 daily low, and with sustained momentum most likely seeing the EUR/USD decline toward 1.1704, a level defended by the December 7 daily low. A further collapse of the single currency defenses will most likely see the pair decline toward 1.1639, a level established by the 2005 Low, and acts as a gateway toward the next psychologically important 1.1500 handle. Indicators are mixed with positive momentum indicator diverging from negative MACD below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

USD/JPY - Japanese Yen longs managed to push the pair below 1118.00 figure as greenback longs remained in charge of the bids around 117.38, a level established by the 23.6 Fib of the 104.16-121.46 USD rally and is further reinforced by the 20-day SMA. As dollar longs regroup and launch another counteroffensive a further move on the part of the greenback longs will most likely see the USD/JPY head higher and with a move above the 118.00-119.00 zone target the yen offers around 119.36, a level defended by the February 3 daily high. A sustained momentum on the part of the greenback bulls will most likely see the dollar bulls push the pair toward the psychologically important 120.00 handle and with confirmed breakout seeing dollar bulls target 120.46, a level marked by the December 13 daily high. A further advance on the part of the dollar trader will most likely see the Japanese yen longs retreat toward 121.39, a level defended by the 2005 High. Indicators are favoring Japanese yen longs with both negative momentum indicator and MACD treading below the zero line, while oversold Stochastic gives dollar longs a chance for a extend their rally.

GBP/USD - British pound longs continued to put up a struggle as pair remained below1.7391, a level defended by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.8500-1.7048 USD rally. As the dollar bulls resume their advance the next move to the downside will most likely target 1.7312, a level marked by the July 8 daily low and with sustained momentum most likely seeing greenback bulls extend their rally below the 1.7200 figure and target pound bids around 1.7188, a level established by the January 3 daily low. A further move on the part of the dollar longs will most likely see the GBP/USD aim for 1.7048, a level defended by the 2005, breaking of which will most likely see the pair gain additional downside momentum and head below the psychologically important 1.7000 handle thus targeting the next potential support around 1.6900 figure, a level not seen since October of 2003. Indicators are favoring dollar longs with both negative momentum indicator and negative MACD trading below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

USD/CHF - Swiss Franc bulls managed to push the pair below 1.3100 figure, but saw their advance stall around 20-day SMA as USD/CHF failed to reach greenback offers around 1.3038, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.2240-1.3285 USD rally. As greenback traders consolidate their recent gains and resume their advance, a further move to the upside will most likely see the USD/CHF extend its advance toward 1.3201, a level established by December 30 daily high. A sustained momentum on the part of the to the upside will most likely see the pair target Swissie's offers around 1.3285, a level established by the 2005 high, and with confirmed break above the trading range's high most likely seeing the pair aim for the next psychologically important 1.3500 handle, a level defended by the Swiss Franc offers around 1.3446, an October 17, 2003 daily high. Indicators are mixed with negative positive momentum indicator diverging from positive MACD above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

USD/CAD - Canadian dollar bulls failed to keep the pair below the psychologically important 1.1500 handle. As US dollar longs head higher, a break above 1.1557, a level established by the February 21 daily low will most likely see the pair extend its rally above 1.1600 figure and target the Canadian dollar offers around 1.1639, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.2799-1.1297 CAD rally. A sustained momentum to the upside will most likely see the pair head higher and test the Loonie defenses above the 1.1700 figure at 1.1748, a level defended by the January 9 daily high. A further move on the part of the US dollar longs will most likely see the pair extend its rally toward 1.1848, a level defended by the combination of the 38.2 Fib of the 1.2799-1.1297 CAD rally and the 200-day SMA. Indicators are mixed with positive momentum indicator diverging from negative MACD above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

AUD/USD - Australian dollar bulls continued to tread sideways after the pair stalled around .7344, a level marked by the February 22 daily low and following the collapse of the bids around .7400 figure. A further move to the downside will most likely see the AUD/USD target the Australian dollar defenses around .7234, a level defended by the December 27 daily low. A sustained momentum on the part of the US dollar bulls will most likely see the pair extend it decline toward .7178, a level established by the August 9, 2004. A further move on the part of the greenback longs will most likely see the pair head lower and aim for the Australian dollar bids at .7104, a level established by the September 27, 2004, a further downside momentum will most likely see AUD/USD enter a trend mode, targeting .6800 handle. Indicators are favoring US dollar longs with both negative momentum indicator and negative MACD treading below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

NZD/USD - New Zealand dollar longs remained below the psychologically important .6500 handle after failing to reclaim the bids above .6507, a level established by the 61.8 Fib of the .5914-.7466 NZD rally. As US dollar longs resume their advance, a further move below the psychologically important .6500 handle most likely seeing the pair head lower and test the bids around .6414, September 4, 2004 daily low. A further move to the downside will most likely see the pair extend its decline below .6300 figure and target Kiwi's bids around .6246, a level marked by the 78.6 Fib of the .5914-.7466 NZD rally, thus confirming an existence of a trend targeting the psychologically important .6000 handle. Indicators are favoring US dollar longs with both negative momentum indicator and positive MACD above the zero line, while ADX above 25 at 35.44 signals an existence of a trend, not a direction of one, with neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.