EUR/USD - Euro bulls continued to keep the pair above the 1.1900 figure as price action remained subdued after EUR/USD stalled above 1.1864, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally. As dollar bulls resume their advance and once again push the pair lower, a move below 1.1864 level, will most likely see EUR/USD head lower and target euro bids around 1.1778, a level marked by the December 30 daily low, and with sustained momentum most likely seeing the EUR/USD decline toward 1.1704, a level defended by the December 7 daily low. A further collapse of the euro's bids will most likely see the pair decline toward 1.1639, a level established by the 2005 Low, and acts as a gateway toward the next psychologically important 1.1500 handle. Indicators are favoring dollar bulls with both negative momentum indicator and negative MACD trading below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
USD/JPY - Japanese Yen longs failed to keep the pair below 1118.00 figure as greenback longs remained in charge of the price action. As dollar longs continue with counteroffensive, a further move on the part of the greenback longs will most likely see the USD/JPY head higher and with a move above the 118.00-119.00 zone target the yen offers around 119.36, a level defended by the February 3 daily high. A sustained upside momentum on the part of the greenback bulls will most likely see the dollar bulls push the pair toward the psychologically important 120.00 handle and with confirmed breakout seeing dollar bulls target 120.46, a level marked by the December 13 daily high. A further advance on the part of the dollar trader will most likely see the Japanese yen longs retreat toward 121.39, a level defended by the 2005 High. Indicators are favoring Japanese yen longs with both negative momentum indicator and MACD treading below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
GBP/USD - British pound longs continued to bounce below 1.7391, a level defended by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.8500-1.7048 USD rally as pair continued to consolidate in a tight trading range. As the dollar bulls resume their advance the next move to the downside will most likely target 1.7312, a level marked by the July 8 daily low and with sustained momentum most likely seeing greenback bulls extend their rally below the 1.7200 figure and target pound bids around 1.7188, a level established by the January 3 daily low. A further move on the part of the dollar longs will most likely see the GBP/USD aim for 1.7048, a level defended by the 2005, breaking of which will most likely see the pair gain additional downside momentum and head below the psychologically important 1.7000 handle thus targeting the next potential support around 1.6900 figure, a level not seen since October of 2003. Indicators are favoring dollar longs with both negative momentum indicator and negative MACD trading below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
USD/CHF - Swiss Franc bulls failed to gain momentum below 1.3100 figure after their advance stalled around 20-day SMA following the failure by the Swissie bulls to reach greenback offers around 1.3038, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.2240-1.3285 USD rally. As greenback traders consolidate their recent gains and resume their advance, a further move to the upside will most likely see the USD/CHF extend its advance toward 1.3201, a level established by December 30 daily high. A sustained momentum on the part of the to the upside will most likely see the pair target Swissie's offers around 1.3285, a level established by the 2005 high, and with confirmed break above the trading range's high most likely seeing the pair aim for the next psychologically important 1.3500 handle, a level defended by the Swiss Franc offers around 1.3446, an October 17, 2003 daily high. Indicators are favoring dollar bulls with both positive momentum indicator and positive MACD treading above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
USD/CAD - Canadian dollar bulls retreated further as US dollar counterpart remained in charge of the price action with the pair testing Loonie offers around the 1.1600 figure. As greenback trader push the pair higher, a decisive move above 1.1600 will most likely see USD/CAD target Canadian dollar offers around 1.1639, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.2799-1.1297 CAD rally. A sustained momentum to the upside will most likely see the pair head higher and test the Loonie defenses above the 1.1700 figure at 1.1748, a level defended by the January 9 daily high. A further move on the part of the US dollar longs will most likely see the pair extend its rally toward 1.1848, a level defended by the combination of the 38.2 Fib of the 1.2799-1.1297 CAD rally and the 200-day SMA. Indicators are mixed with positive momentum indicator diverging from negative MACD above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
AUD/USD - Australian dollar bulls continued to tread sideways after the price action remained subdue after AUD/USD stalled around .7344, a level marked by the February 22 daily low. As US dollar bulls resume their advance, a further move to the downside will most likely see the AUD/USD target the Australian dollar defenses around .7234, a level defended by the December 27 daily low. A sustained momentum on the part of the US dollar bulls will most likely see the pair extend it decline toward .7178, a level established by the August 9, 2004. A further move on the part of the greenback longs will most likely see the pair head lower and aim for the Australian dollar bids at .7104, a level established by the September 27, 2004, a further downside momentum will most likely see AUD/USD enter a trend mode, targeting .6800 handle. Indicators are favoring US dollar longs with both negative momentum indicator and negative MACD treading below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
NZD/USD - New Zealand dollar longs fell further below the psychologically important .6500 handle as pair remained in a trend mode. As US dollar longs continue to capture more territory, a further move to the downside will most likely see the pair head lower and test the bids around .6414, September 4, 2004 daily low. A further move to the downside will most likely see the pair extend its decline below .6300 figure and target Kiwi's bids around .6246, a level marked by the 78.6 Fib of the .5914-.7466 NZD rally, thus confirming an existence of a trend targeting the psychologically important .6000 handle. Indicators are favoring US dollar longs with both negative momentum indicator and positive MACD above the zero line, while ADX above 25 at 37.10 signals an existence of a trend, not a direction of one, with neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.