Energies
Crude turned immediately this week as no production cuts in Wednesdayââ,¬â"¢s OPEC meeting and continued oversupply has made the energies quite bearish.  Once again the market has unlimited downside potential and little support standing in its way.  Natural gas should stand out as a good inter-market spread play at these prices with a long nat gas for every three short crude.

Financials
A choppy stock market offered some downside volatility and strong fund buying intraday on major dips.  This will not continue much longer as the large intraday swings and expansion in volatility will force the hand of either a fund liquidation or spec buying through to a new high.  The current setup continues to suggest a bear market with a break to a new low before long.  Bear put spreads are still the best play.  Bonds thoroughly broke down and continue to be bearish as the global rate hikes and strong employment data suggest that, if anything, the market has underestimated the potential for future rate hikes.  Buy bond puts on bounces.  The euro continues to offer a sell indicator, and the dollar bullish with limitations in the near term.  The yen reversed a bull technical and is clearly in breakdown mode as support has been penetrated today.  The Canadian dollar is a step ahead of me but I remain a long term bear expecting a major retracement this year despite my poor timing here.

Grains
The stock report today showed a solid drawdown in corn inventories but taking away a 50th of way too much corn still leaves you with way too much corn.  The grain markets as a whole reversed a bearish open and ran higher on strong volume momentum, only to be squashed in the last five minutes with massive selling.  Overall I see this turning the grains positive for the next few weeks and I would still be quick on the exit trigger.  Rice took a shakeout and resumed its bull trend this week.  Until we break the highs it set last month I will remain sidelined.

Meats
Continued downside in cattle is setting up some serious fallout potential in this market ââ,¬â€œ not that the fit hasnââ,¬â"¢t already hit the shan.  Hogs broke critical 60.90 support and my bullish outlook is no longer.

Metals
The metals fell apart a bit this week as oil fell down, economic reports were solid and the short positions piled up.  The intraday recoveries were a bit concerning and not indicative of a collapsing market, but the average daily volatility is expanding so intensely that the market has likely not had its big day just yet.  I would not be surprised to see a $40 down day in gold and $1 silver plunge.  Copper, platinum and palladium all remain sells as well.

Softs
Coffee prices began to stabilize and I continue to recommend a May 115-120 bull call spread.  OJ prices spiked to new highs and broke out of its bull pennant, but the lack of follow through and overall feel of the market is one that should see a retracement and surprising reversal to the downside next week.  Cotton is all over the map but I still think 48 puts for July are the best play.  Cocoa broke back above 1500 and is bullish despite todayââ,¬â"¢s fall.  Buy calls on dips.  Sugar is falling apart ââ,¬â€œ 13 here we come!  Lumber is still bearish.

James Mound is the head analyst for www.MoundReport.com, and author of the commodity book 7 Secrets. For a free email subscription to James Mound's Weekend Commodities Review and Trade of the Month, click here.