EUR/USD - Euro bulls continued to put up a struggle as the pair remained above the 1.1900 figure following the inability of the greenback trader to break below 1.1864, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally. As single currency bulls push the pair toward the psychologically important 1.2000 handle, a level defended by the key 38.2 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally, a subsequent reversal will most likely see the dollar bulls resume their advance and once again push the pair lower. A sharp rally on the part of the greenback longs will most likely see the pair break below move 1.1900 and target bids around 1.1864 level. A further move to the downside will most likely see EUR/USD head lower and target euros bids around 1.1778, a level marked by the December 30 daily low, and with sustained momentum most likely seeing the EUR/USD decline toward 1.1704, a level defended by the December 7 daily low. Indicators are favoring dollar bulls with both negative momentum indicator and negative MACD trading below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
USD/JPY - Japanese Yen longs managed to keep the pair below 119.00 figure as greenback longs continued to rally the pair higher. As dollar longs regroup, a move on the part of the yen longs will most likely see the USD/JPY head lower and with a move toward the 118.00 target the dollar bids above 117.40, a level defended by the combination of the 23.6 Fib of the 104.16-121.46 USD rally and 20-day SMA. A subsequent reversal will most likely see the greenback traders resume their rally and with a move above 119.00 figure target yen offer around 119.36, a level defended by the February 3 daily high. A further move on the part of the greenback bulls will most likely see the dollar bulls push the pair toward the psychologically important 120.00 handle and with confirmed breakout seeing dollar bulls target 120.46, a level marked by the December 13 daily high. Indicators are mixed with positive momentum indicator diverging from negative MACD below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
GBP/USD - British pound longs saw their bids disappear after the greenback bulls managed to push the pair below 1.7391, a level defended by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.8500-1.7048 USD rally following a sharp dollar rally. As the dollar bulls connote their advance, the next move to the downside will most likely target 1.7312, a level marked by the July 8 daily low and with sustained momentum most likely seeing greenback bulls extend their rally below the 1.7200 figure and target pound bids around 1.7188, a level established by the January 3 daily low. A further move on the part of the dollar longs will most likely see the GBP/USD aim for 1.7048, a level defended by the 2005, breaking of which will most likely see the pair gain additional downside momentum and head below the psychologically important 1.7000 handle thus targeting the next potential support around 1.6900 figure, a level not seen since October of 2003. Indicators are favoring dollar longs with both negative momentum indicator and negative MACD trading below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
USD/CHF - Swiss Franc bulls managed to keep the pair below 1.3200 figure, a level defended by the December 30 daily high, after the greenback bulls failed to follow through with their advance. As dollar longs regroup and resume their advance, a further move to the upside will most likely see the USD/CHF extend its advance toward 1.3201, a level established by December 30 daily high. A sustained momentum on the part of the to the upside will most likely see the pair target Swissie's offers around 1.3285, a level established by the 2005 high, and with confirmed break above the trading range's high most likely seeing the pair aim for the next psychologically important 1.3500 handle, a level defended by the Swiss Franc offers around 1.3446, an October 17, 2003 daily high. Indicators are favoring dollar bulls with both positive momentum indicator and positive MACD treading above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
USD/CAD - Canadian dollar bulls continued to keep the US dollar longs at bay as the pair stalled below the 1.1600 figure, a level defended by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.2799-1.1297 CAD rally at 1.1639. A further move to the upside will most likely see the pair head higher and with a break above the 1.1700 figure take on the Canadian dollar offers around 1.1748, a level defended by the January 9 daily high. A further move on the part of the US dollar longs will most likely see the pair extend its rally toward 1.1848, a level defended by the combination of the 38.2 Fib of the 1.2799-1.1297 CAD rally and the 200-day SMA. Indicators are mixed with positive momentum indicator diverging from negative MACD above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
AUD/USD - Australian dollar bulls remained sideways trading range after the AUD/USD stalled around .7344, a level marked by the February 22 daily low. As US dollar bulls resume their advance, a further move to the downside will most likely see the AUD/USD target the Australian dollar defenses around .7234, a level defended by the December 27 daily low. A sustained momentum on the part of the US dollar bulls will most likely see the pair extend it decline toward .7178, a level established by the August 9, 2004. A further move on the part of the greenback longs will most likely see the pair head lower and aim for the Australian dollar bids at .7104, a level established by the September 27, 2004, a further downside momentum will most likely see AUD/USD enter a trend mode, targeting .6800 handle. Indicators are favoring US dollar longs with both negative momentum indicator and negative MACD treading below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
NZD/USD - New Zealand dollar longs gave up further ground the advancing US dollar counterparts as pair remained in a trend mode. As US dollar longs continue to capture more territory, a further move to the downside will most likely see the pair below .6400 figure and target Kiwi's bids around .6374, a level established by the May 27, 2004 daily high. A further move to the downside will most likely see the pair extend its decline below .6300 figure and target Kiwi's bids around .6246, a level marked by the 78.6 Fib of the .5914-.7466 NZD rally, thus confirming an existence of a trend targeting the psychologically important .6000 handle. Indicators are favoring US dollar longs with both negative momentum indicator and positive MACD above the zero line, while ADX above 25 at 38.97 signals an existence of a trend, not a direction of one, with neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.