The McMillan Options Strategist Weekly |
By Lawrence G. McMillan |
Published
05/8/2015
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Options
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Unrated
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The McMillan Options Strategist Weekly
The stock market weakened considerably this week, and many of the indicators are now following suit with sell signals. But $SPX price action continues to frustrate both bulls and bears, as it refuses to trend higher or lower.
So now for $SPX, there is support at 2067 - 2072 (the April and May lows), with resistance above at 2125 (the all-time highs).
Equity-only put-call ratios have deteriorated badly this week. Both ratios have rolled over to sell signals.
Market breadth was the first to weaken, generating sell signals just over a week ago. They remain in place now.
Volatility has been the bullish stalwart in this market for some time. But even that is beginning to weaken. $VIX closed above 15 and above its 20-day moving average this week. Thus, it appears than an uptrend is beginning in $VIX, and when volatility is trending higher, that is bearish for stocks.
In summary, one would think that with the deterioration of many of the technical indicators, $SPX is destined to break down. But we have seen similar situations at other times in the last 3 or 4 years, and $SPX has not broken down. So, until it actually happens, there remains some doubt.
Lawrence G. McMillan is the author of two best selling books on options, including Options as a Strategic Investment, and also publishes several option trading newsletters.
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