EUR/USD - Euro bulls continued to dominate the price action as pair broke above 1.2111, a level established by the 50.0 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally. A further break to the upside will most likely see the pair head higher and test dollar offers around 1.2189, a level marked by the January 31 daily high. A sustained momentum on the part of the single currency longs will most likely see the pair head higher and target 1.2225, a level created by the 61.8 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally. A further advance by the EUR/USD will most likely see pair target the greenback offers around 1.2322, a level marked by the January swing high and with further advance on the part of the Euro bulls seeing EUR/USD target greenback offers around 1.2385, a level defended by the 78.6 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally. Indicators are favoring Euro longs with both positive momentum indicator and MACD treading above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
USD/JPY - Japanese Yen longs pushed the pair below 117.00 figure as pair broke dollar defenses around 117.35, a level established by the 23.6 Fib of the 104.16-121.46 USD rally and is further reinforced by the 20-day SMA. A further move to the downside will most likely see the pair break below greenback defenses around 115.93, a level created by the January 17 daily high. A sustained momentum to the downside will most likely see the USD/JPY target greenback bids below the psychologically important 115.00 handle at 114.80, a level established by the 38.2 Fib of the 104.16-121.46 USD rally. A sustained momentum to the downside will most likely see USD/JPY extend its decline toward 113.42, a January 12 daily low. Indicators are mixed with negative momentum indicator diverging from positive MACD above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
GBP/USD - British pound longs remained in charge of the price action as pair broke above psychologically important 1.7500 handle along with greenback offers around 1.7535, a level marked by the January 20 daily low and is reinforced by the 50-day SMA. A further move to the upside will move likely see the pair head higher and with a break above 1.7610, a level established by the 38.2 Fib of the 1.8500-1.7048 USD rally targeting 1.7677, a 200-day SMA. A further move on the part of the sterling bulls will most likely see the pair extend its rally toward 1.7721, a level marked by the 50.0 Fib of the 1.8500-1.7048 USD rally. A further move on the part of the sterling bulls will most likely see the pair head higher and target dollar defenses around 1.7944, a level defended by the 61.8 Fib of the 1.8500-1.7048 USD rally Indicators are mixed with positive momentum indicator diverging from negative MACD below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
USD/CHF - Swiss Franc bulls crashed below the dollar bids around 1.2943, a level created by the 50-day SMA and proceeded to push the pair toward 1.2890, a level established by the 38.2 Fib of the 1.2240-1.3285 USD rally and is further reinforced by the 200-day SMA. A further move on the part of the Swiss Franc longs will most likely see the USD/CHF extend its decline toward 1.2769, a level defended by the 50.0 Fib of the 1.2240-1.3285 USD rally. A sustained momentum of the Swiss Franc advance will most likely see the pair extend its decline below 1.2700 figure and challenge greenback bids around 1.2639, a level marked by the 61.8 Fib of the 1.2240-1.3285 USD rally. Indicators are mixed with negative momentum indicator diverging from positive MACD above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
USD/CAD - Canadian dollar bulls continued to tread sideways as USD/CAD stalled above the psychologically important 1.1600 figure. A further move to the downside targeting greenback bids around the psychologically important 1.1500 handle, a level defended by the combination of the 50-day and 20-day SMA's. A further move on the part of the Canadian dollar longs will most likely see the pair extend its decline below the 1.1400 handle and target greenback bids around 1.1372, a level defended by the January 31 daily low. A sustained momentum on the part of the Canadian dollar bulls will most likely see the pair extend its decline and with a break below 1.1300 figure , a level defended by the March 2 daily low most likely seeing USD/CAD extend its decline below 1.1200 figure. Indicators are mixed with positive momentum indicator diverging from negative MACD above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
AUD/USD - Australian dollar bulls failed to push the pair higher as the AUD/USD collapsed below .7344, a level marked by the February 22 daily low. As Aussie longs fail to gain an upside momentum, a further move to the downside will most likely see the pair break below .7304 figure, a level marked by the March 10 daily low and with sustained momentum on the part of the US dollar bulls most likely seeing the pair extend it decline toward .7234, a level established by December 27 daily low. A further decline on the part of the US dollar bulls will most likely see the pair extend its decline below .7200 figure and target Aussie bids around .7178, a level marked by the August 9, 2004 daily high, breaking of which will most likely open the psychologically important .7000 handle as a target of opportunity for the prospective greenback bulls. Indicators are favoring US dollar trader with both negative momentum indicator and negative MACD treading below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
NZD/USD - New Zealand dollar continued to tumble below the .6400 figure as greenback traders remained in charge of the trend. A further move to the downside will most likely see the pair head below .6300 figure and target Kiwi's bids around .6246, a level marked by the 78.6 Fib of the .5914-.7466 NZD rally. A sustained momentum to the downside will most likely see NZD/USD extend its decline below .6200 figure and target Kiwi's bids around .6155, a level defended by the June 3, 2004 daily low, thus confirming an existence of a trend targeting the psychologically important .6000 handle. Indicators are favoring US dollar longs with both negative momentum indicator and positive MACD above the zero line, while ADX above 25 at 44.28 signals an existence of a trend, not a direction of one, with both oversold oscillators add to a trending outlook.
Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.