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Euro Commodity Crosses Begin To Trend
By Jamie Saettele | Published  03/17/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Euro Commodity Crosses Begin To Trend

EUR/AUD - Euro broke above the large trading range that dominated the price action since the end of 2005 with the latest swing to the upside testing the bids offers around 1.6625, a level defended by the combination of 50.0 Fib of the 1.7712-.5532 AUD rally. A further move to the upside will most likely see the cross head higher and test the offers around 1.6778, a level established by the May 16, 2005 daily high. A further move to the downside will most likely see the EUR/AUD head higher and with a confirmed break above 1.6368, a level established by the September 20 daily low, most likely seeing the cross target the Aussie offers around the psychologically important 1.7000 handle, a level defended by the April 18 daily high at 1.7031. Indicators are favoring euro longs with both positive momentum indicator and MACD treading above the zero line, while both oversold oscillators give the cross a trending outlook.

EUR/CAD - Euro bulls managed to push the cross above psychologically important 1.4000 handle as EUR/CAD crashed through the Canadian dollar offers around 1.4050, a level established by the December 20 daily high. A sustained momentum on the part of the single currency longs will most likely see the EUR/CAD head higher and test Loonie offers around 1.4262, a level established by the 61.8 Fib of the 1.2569-1.6978 EUR rally and is further reinforced by the 200-day SMA. A further move to the upside will most likely see the cross head higher and with a break above 1.4403, a level marked by the October 6 daily high targeting Loonie offers above the psychologically important 1.4000 handle. A further advance on the part of the euro longs will most likely see EUR/CAD head higher and target the Canadian dollar offers around 1.4767, a level marked by the 50.0 Fib of the 1.2569-1.6978 EUR rally. Indicators are mixed with positive momentum indicator diverging from negative MACD below the zero line, while both oversold oscillators give the cross a trending outlook

EUR/NZD - Euro longs continued to push the cross higher as EUR/NZD broke above the psychologically important 1.9000 handle after breaking offers around 1.8990, a level established by the 50.0 Fib of the 2.1744 -1.6240 EUR rally. A further move to the upside will most likely see Euro bulls push the cross toward  the psychologically important 1.9500 handle and aim for the New Zealand dollar offers around 1.9640, a level marked by the 78.6 Fib of the 2.1744 -1.6240 EUR rally. A sustained momentum on the part of the single currency traders will most likely see the EUR/NZD head higher and target the next psychologically important level at 2.0000, a level marked by the October 15, 2003 daily high and with a break above most likely seeing the cross head higher and target the Kiwi's defenses around 2.0302, a level defended by the June 8, 2004 daily high. Indicators are favoring the Euro longs, with both positive momentum indicator and MACD treading above the zero line, with ADX above 25 at 51.28 signaling an existence of a trend, not a direction of one, while both overbought oscillators add to a trending outlook room to maneuver.

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.