EUR/USD - Euro bulls continued to tread sideways as pair failed to advance toward the greenback offers around 1.2200 figure. As single currency longs resume their advance and push the pair higher, a further move to the upside will most likely see EUR/USD break above the dollar offers around 1.2189, a level marked by the January 31 daily high. A sustained momentum on the part of the euro bulls will most likely see the pair head higher and test offers 1.2225, a level created by the 61.8 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally. A further advance by the single currency longs will most likely see EUR/USD target the greenback offers around 1.2322, a level marked by the January swing high and with further advance on the part of the Euro bulls seeing EUR/USD target greenback offers around 1.2385, a level defended by the 78.6 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally. Indicators are favoring Euro longs with both positive momentum indicator and MACD treading above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
USD/JPY - Japanese Yen longs failed to push back their greenback counterparts as pair remained above the 116.00 figure after a last week's yen rally. As yen traders consolidate their gains and resume their advance, a further move to the downside will most likely see the pair break below greenback defenses around 115.93, a level created by the January 17 daily high. A sustained momentum to the downside will most likely see the USD/JPY target greenback bids below the psychologically important 115.00 handle at 114.80, a level established by the 38.2 Fib of the 104.16-121.46 USD rally. However in case yen bulls fail to hold back the greenback longs and retreat above 117.00 figure, a level defended by the combination of the 20-day and 50-day SMA, with a further move to the upside most likely seeing the pair extend its advance above the 117.35, a level established by the 23.6 Fib of the 104.16-121.46 USD rally, breaking of which will most likely see USD/JPY head above 118.00 figure. Indicators are favoring dollar bulls with both positive momentum indicator and positive MACD treading above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
GBP/USD - British pound longs failed to push the pair higher with GBP/USD sliding below 1.7540, a level marked by the 50-day SMA. As cable bulls resume their advance and push the pair to the upside, a break above 1.7610, a level established by the 38.2 Fib of the 1.8500-1.7048 USD rally will most likely see the sterling longs target 1.7677, a level defended by the 200-day SMA. A further move on the part of the sterling bulls will most likely see the pair extend its rally toward 1.7721, a level marked by the 50.0 Fib of the 1.8500-1.7048 USD rally. However in case pound bulls fail to hold the pair above the psychologically important 1.7500 handle, a decline below will most likely see GBP/USD target pound bids around 1.7462, a level marked by the 20-day SMA. Indicators are mixed with positive momentum indicator diverging from negative MACD below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
USD/CHF - Swiss Franc bulls continued to tread sideways after failing to break below the dollar bids around 1.2890, a level established by the 38.2 Fib of the 1.2240-1.3285 USD rally and is further reinforced by the 200-day SMA as overall price action remained in favor of Swissie bulls. A confirmed break below the greenback bids will most likely see the USD/CHF head below 1.2800 figure and extend its decline toward 1.2769, a level defended by the 50.0 Fib of the 1.2240-1.3285 USD rally. A sustained momentum of the Swiss Franc advance will most likely see the pair extend its decline below 1.2700 figure and challenge greenback bids around 1.2639, a level marked by the 61.8 Fib of the 1.2240-1.3285 USD rally. However in case Swiss Franc bull fail to control the price action, a move above the psychologically important 1.3000 handle will most likely see the pair target Swissie offers around 1.3037, a level marked by the 38.2 Fib of the 1.2240-1.3285 USD rally. Indicators are mixed with negative momentum indicator diverging from positive MACD above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
USD/CAD - Canadian dollar bulls lost control of the price action to the US dollar counterparts as USD/CAD headed above the 1.1600 figure. A further move to the upside will most likely see the pair head higher and with a move above 1.1639, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.2799-1.1297 CAD rally seeing USD/CAD head above the 1.1700 figure. A further move on the part of the greenback longs will most likely see the pair extend its advance and target Loonie offers around 1.1748, a level marked by the January 9 daily high. A further move to the upside will most likely see USD/CAD advance above 1.1800 figure and with sustained momentum targeting 1.1848, a level defended by the 38.2 Fib of the 1.2799-1.1297 CAD rally. . Indicators are favoring dollar bulls with both positive momentum indicator and positive MACD treading above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
AUD/USD - Australian dollar bulls continued to gain terminal velocity as pair tumbled like toward Aussie bids around .7178, a level marked by the August 9, 2004 daily high. A further move to the downside will most likely see the pair head lower and with a break below .7100 figure most likely seeing AUD/USD head toward .7038, a level defended by the 78.6 Fib of the .6780-.7986 AUD rally. A further move to the downside will most likely see greenback longs push the pair below the psychologically important .7000 handle. A sustained momentum on the part of the greenback longs will most likely see AUD/USD head lower and target Aussie bids around .6932, a level marked by the July 29, 2004 daily low .Indicators are favoring US dollar trader with both negative momentum indicator and negative MACD treading below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
NZD/USD - New Zealand dollar remained southward bound as US dollar traders remained in charge of the price action. A further move to the downside will most likely see the pair target Kiwi's bids around .6246, a level marked by the 78.6 Fib of the .5914-.7466 NZD rally. A sustained momentum to the downside will most likely see NZD/USD extend its decline below .6200 figure and target Kiwi's bids around .6155, a level defended by the June 3, 2004 daily low, thus confirming an existence of a trend targeting the psychologically important .6000 handle. Indicators are favoring US dollar longs with both negative momentum indicator and positive MACD above the zero line, while ADX above 25 at 47.59 signals existence of a trend, not a direction of one, with both oversold oscillators add to a trending outlook.
Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.