CAD/JPY - Japanese Yen longs continued to keep the cross in a trading range as Canadian dollar bulls maintained bide above the psychologically important 100.00 handle, a level defended by the 23.6 Fib of the 83.19-105.09 CAD rally. As Loonie longs resume their advance, a move above the 102.00 figure, a level defended by the combination of the 20-day and 50-day SMA's will most likely see the cross target the yen offers around 103.42, a level marked by the March 6 daily high. A further move on the part of the Canadian dollar longs will most likely see the cross extend its rally above the psychologically important 105.00 handle and target yen offers around 105.57, a level established by the 2005 High, breaking of which will most likely see CAD/JPY extend its advance toward 108.14, a level created by the 50.0 Fib Extension of the May-Dec CAD rally. Indicators are favoring Japanese yen longs with both negative momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line, with neutral oscillators giving either side a room to maneuver.
CHF/JPY - Japanese yen bulls remained on sidelines as cross continued to seesaw around the psychologically important 90.00 handle, a level defended by the 38.2 Fib of the 84.83-93.46 CHF. A next move to the upside will most likely see the CHF/JPY aim for the Japanese Yen offers around 90.91, a level marked by the February 21 daily high and with sustained momentum to the upside most likely seeing the cross head higher and aim for 91.42, a level created by the 23.6 Fib of the 84.83-93.46 CHF rally. A further collapse of the Japanese Yen offers will most likely see the CHF/JPY target the offers around 92.24, a level established by the February 2 daily high. Indicators are mixed with positive momentum indicator diverging from negative MACD treading below the zero line, while overbought Stochastic gives yen longs a chance to retaliate.
NZD/JPY - New Zealand dollar bulls continued trend lower as NZD/JPY broke below the bids around the 73.00 figure as cross remained In a trend mode. A collapse of the New Zealand dollar bids around the 72.00figure will most likely see NZD/JPY target Kiwi's bids around 71.76. a level defended by the November 1, 2004 daily low. A further move to the downside will most likely see the Japanese yen traders extend their rally toward the psychologically important 70.00 handle, a level defended by the 50.0 Fib of the 53.68-87.09 NZD rally. A sustained momentum on the part of the Japanese yen longs will most likely see the cross head below 70.00 and target Kiwi's bids around 67.70, a level created by the June 24, 2004 daily low. Indicators are favoring Japanese yen longs with both negative momentum indicator and MACD treading below the zero line, with ADX above 25, at 43.80, signaling an existence of a trend, not a direction of one, while both oversold oscillators add to a trending outlook.
Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.