EUR/USD - Euro bulls continued to head lower as greenback longs remained in charge of the price action as EUR/USD landed on top the 200-day SMA. A sustained momentum on the part of the dollar bulls will most likely see the pair head lower and test single currency bids around the psychologically important 1.2000 handle, a level created by the 38.2 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally. A further advance by the greenback longs will most likely see EUR/USD target the euro offers around 1.1932, a level marked by the December 28 daily high and with further advance on the part of the dollar trader seeing the pair head below 1.1900 figure and target bids around 1.1864, a level defended by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally. Indicators are favoring Euro longs with both positive momentum indicator and MACD treading above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
USD/JPY - Japanese Yen longs continued to engage their dollar counterparts over the price action as pair seesawed around the 117.00 figure, a level defended by the combination of the 20-day and 50-day SMA's. As greenback longs resume their advance and push the pair above 117.35, a level established by the 23.6 Fib of the 104.16-121.46 USD rally, next move to the upside will most likely see USD/JPY head above 118.00 figure and challenge yen offers around 118.17, a level marked by the December 30 daily high. A further move to the upside will most likely see the pair extend its gains above 119.00 figure and target offers around 119.39, a level established by the February 3 daily high. A sustained momentum on the part of the dollar bulls will most likely see USD/JPY head above the psychologically important 120.00 handle and target yen offers at 120.48, a level marked by the December 13 daily high, which currently acts as a gateway toward 2005 High at 121.39. Indicators are favoring dollar bulls with both positive momentum indicator and positive MACD treading above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
GBP/USD - British pound longs continued to tumble as pair fell further below the psychologically important 1.7500 handle with the latest swing landing on top of the 20-day SMA at 1.7445. As greenback bulls resume their advance and push the pair to the downside, a break below 1.7399, a level established by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.8500-1.7048 USD rally will most likely see the dollar longs target sterling bids below 1.7300 figure at 1.7281, a level defended by the February 14 daily low. A further move on the part of the dollar trader will most likely see GBP/USD extend its decline toward 1.7188, a level marked by the January 3 daily low. A sustained momentum on the part of the greenback longs will most likely see the pair head lower and target the psychologically important 1.7000 handle, a level defended by the 2005 Low at 1.7048. Indicators are favoring dollar longs with both negative momentum indicator and negative MACD treading below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
USD/CHF - Swiss Franc bulls continued to head higher as pair remained above the psychologically important 1.3000 handle with USD/CHF probing Swissie offers around 1.3037, a level marked by the 38.2 Fib of the 1.2240-1.3285 USD rally. A further move to the upside will most likely see the pair extend its advance beyond 1.3100 figure and target Swiss Franc defenses around 1.3201, a level defended by the December 30 daily high. A further move to the upside will most likely see USD/CHF head higher and with a break above 1.3285, a 2005 High most likely seeing the pair gain further upside momentum and target offers around 1.3446, a level not seen since October 17, 2003 daily high, a level which acts as a gateway toward the psychologically important 1.3500 handle. Indicators are mixed with negative momentum indicator diverging from positive MACD above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
USD/CAD - Canadian dollar bulls continued to retreat as USD/CAD remained above the 1.1600 figure with greenback longs dominating the bids around 1.1639, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.2799-1.1297 CAD rally. A further move on the part of the greenback longs will most likely see the pair extend its advance and with a move above 1.1700 figure targeting Loonie offers around 1.1748, a level marked by the January 9 daily high. A further move to the upside will most likely see USD/CAD advance above 1.1800 figure and with sustained momentum targeting 1.1848, a level defended by the 38.2 Fib of the 1.2799-1.1297 CAD rally. A further rally on the part of the US dollar bulls will most likely see the USD/CAD target the psychologically important 1.2000 handle, a level defended by the November 15 daily high. Indicators are favoring dollar bulls with both positive momentum indicator and positive MACD treading above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
AUD/USD - Australian dollar bulls took a pause as pair stalled around .7178, a level marked by the August 9, 2004 daily high. As greenback longs resume their advance and push the pair lower, a further move to the downside will most likely see the AUD/USD head lower and with a break below .7100 figure most likely seeing AUD/USD head toward .7038, a level defended by the 78.6 Fib of the .6780-.7986 AUD rally. A further move to the downside will most likely see greenback longs push the pair below the psychologically important .7000 handle. A sustained momentum on the part of the greenback longs will most likely see AUD/USD head lower and target Aussie bids around .6932, a level marked by the July 29, 2004 daily low .Indicators are favoring US dollar trader with both negative momentum indicator and negative MACD treading below the zero line, while oversold Stochastic gives the Australian dollar bulls a chance to retaliate.
NZD/USD - New Zealand dollar managed to temporarily stall the advance by the US dollar longs as pair continued to bounce around .6246, a level marked by the 78.6 Fib of the .5914-.7466 NZD rally. As US dollar longs resume their advance, a sustained momentum to the downside will most likely see NZD/USD extend its decline below .6200 figure and target Kiwi's bids around .6155, a level defended by the June 3, 2004 daily low, thus seeing the pair resume its trend targeting the psychologically important .6000 handle. A further move below .6000 figure will most likely see the pair head lower and target bids around .5914m a level marked by the May 18, 2004 daily low. Indicators are favoring US dollar longs with both negative momentum indicator and positive MACD above the zero line, while ADX above 25 at 50.68 signals existence of a trend, not a direction of one, with both oversold oscillators add to a trending outlook.
Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.