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British Pound Crosses Begin To Breakout
By Jamie Saettele | Published  03/23/2006 | Currency | Unrated
British Pound Crosses Begin To Breakout

GBP/JPY - British pound traders continued to keep the cross confined to a narrow trading range as GBP/JPY stalled below 205.26, a level defended by the combination of the 38.2 Fib of the 192.69-213.03 GBP rally, a 50-day and 20-day SMA's. As sterling bulls resume their advance and push the cross higher, a move above the psychologically important 205.00 handle will most likely see GBP/JPY target the yen offers at 206.86, a level marked by the November 15 daily high. A further move to the upside will most likely see cable longs extend their gain toward 208.28, a level established by the 23.6 Fib of the 192.69-213.03 GBP rally. A further move to the upside will most likely see sterling longs extend their advance above the psychologically important 210.00 handle and target 211.10, a level defended by the February 3 daily high, breaking of which will most likely see the cross target offers around 213.10, a level created by the 2005 High. Indicators are mixed with positive momentum indicator diverging from negative MACD treading below the zero line; with neutral oscillators giving either side enough room to maneuver. 

GBP/CHF - British pound staged a countermove as GBP/CHF continued to swing within a trading range that dominated the price action since 2005 wit hthe latest move to the upside failing to break above 20-day SMA at 2.2800. As Swiss Franc longs remain in charge of the price action, a move to the downside will most likely see the cross head lower and with a move below 2.2700, a level defended by the 38.2 Fib of the 2.1714-2.3310 GBP rally and is further reinforced by the 50-day SMA target 2.2512, a level 38.2 Fib of the 2.1714-2.3310 GBP rally. A sustained momentum on the part of the Swissie longs will most likely see GBP/CHF head below the psychologically important 2.2500 handle and target pound bids around 2.2323, a level protected by the 61.8 Fib of the 2.1714-2.3310 GBP rally. A further move to the downside will most likely see the cross gain further downside momentum and target the psychologically important 2.2000 handle, a level defended by the 78.6 Fib of the 2.1714-2.3310 GBP rally at 2.2055. Indicators are mixed with positive momentum indicator diverging from negative MACD below the zero line, while oversold Stochastic gives pound bulls a chance to retaliate.

GBP/AUD - Pound longs staged a sharp breakout out of the trading range that dominated the price action since the beginning of the year with GBP/AUD stalling below the psychologically important 2.4500 handle. As sterling bulls resume their advance, a further move to the upside will most likely see the pair head higher and target Aussie offers around 2.4521, a level established by the 61.8 Fib of the 2.5672-2.2692 AUD rally. A further break to the upside will most likely see the cross head higher and target the Australian dollar defenses around 2.4632, a level established by the April 7, 2005 daily high, breaking of which will most likely see the cross accelerate toward the next psychologically important 2.5000 handle, a level defended by the 78.6 Fib of the 2.5672-2.2692 AUD rally. Indicators are favoring sterling longs, with both positive momentum indicator and positive MACD treading above the zero line, while overbought Stochastic gives Aussie longs a chance to retaliate.

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.