Energies
Energies broke down as rising crude supplies offset concerns over unleaded supply declines.  A relatively benign political week and the market gave in.  Critical $52.50 on crude is the next stop on the long road to $40.  Sell puts on $4 dips and calls on $2 rallies. 

Financials
Stocks continue to falsify trends and fake out the intermediate term traders.  Bottom line is stocks need to get to about 1212 to make me bullish, so selling around 1195-1205 makes a heck of a lot of sense.  Bonds want to break but lack true pressure and volume to back it.  Nevertheless I see a test of the recent lows sometime in the next two weeks.  Go short with calls as protection.  The dollar fell apart today as it approached the previous highs, and the market needs to quickly get to a fresh high or else we may be in the beginning of a channel.  The gut says the bull breakout is likely, but be weary of the market if we get to 8350.  The euro, pound and yen should follow suit.  The Canadian showed today it has some catching up to do and a move to 8050 is expected next week.

Grains
A bearish WASDE and crop report this morning set an ugly and bearish tone across the grain complex.  Overall this appears to be a great bottoming opportunity and I would be half in with my chips on the long side on the close today with the potential to scoop up a little more value early next week before heading higher.  Wheat is the best value play in the complex.

Meats
Cattle broke critical support at 8365 and looks quite bearish after today's late reversal.  Look for a new low by Wednesday if my short term bearish outlook is correct.  Hogs bounced after a beat down and probably won't be able to hold onto the gains for that long.  Look for new lows next week.

Metals
Gold remained very range bound, along with silver, as they await the dollar's next move (does it hold the highs or not).  Look for some serious volatility out of the metals markets next week if the dollar sets a new high.  The gut says its very likely next week is when gold breaks and the dollar takes off, but timing is definitely more the question than if it will happen.  Palladium remains a buy.

Softs
OJ volatility heated up this week as the market digested somewhat bearish supply and demand news and overall the market lacked momentum to break fresh highs.  I must admit the end of day run yesterday and today's quiet recovery makes me a continued bull in this market.  Also, it is holding trend line support on a daily and a weekly.  Overall OJ is a buy.  Coffee plunged today and may have another day or two left but is a clear buy in the 110-115 range.  Cocoa remains potentially explosive and a buy around 1450 is recommended.  Cotton is starting to look more and more bullish and I am getting more and more bearish.  Sugar is still a sell, but I might be a value buyer in the low 8s.  Lumber is breaking hard and fast and 350 and below is the next stop.

James Mound, owner of JMTG Brokerage LLC, MoundReport.com and author of the book 7 Secrets, writes the Weekend Commodities Review Newsletter. Receive your free weekly subscription to the Weekend Review by e-mail. Click here.