The McMillan Options Strategist Weekly |
By Lawrence G. McMillan |
Published
02/19/2016
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Options
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Unrated
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The McMillan Options Strategist Weekly
The rally has been powerful, but is it just another oversold affair? At this point, we can't really tell. The next resistance area is at 1940-1950, and that's a more crucial point. If $SPX can rise above that level, then it will have formed a "W" on its chart, and that would be quite bullish.
On the other hand, if the 1950 resistance holds, or is quickly retraced, then a much more bearish scenario unfolds.
Put-call ratios are very bullish. Since these are 21-day moving averages, they are not necessarily good timing indicators for an abrupt market reversal, but they were this time.
Market breadth has improved a lot, as well. Both breadth oscillators finally issued buy signals this week.
Volatility indices declined during this rally. However, the overall trend of $VIX is still higher, and that is bearish.
In summary, things have improved a lot after the monster rally that took place over the last week. But one has to question whether the rally can continue. A lot of "energy" was expended to get to this point, and overhead resistance looms at 1950. So, unless the market can break out over 1950, this seems to be a relatively convenient place to sell.
Lawrence G. McMillan is the author of two best selling books on options, including Options as a Strategic Investment, and also publishes several option trading newsletters.
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