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Market Remains Higher Risk as Trading Range Continues
By Toni Hansen | Published  04/12/2005 | Futures , Stocks | Unrated
Market Remains Higher Risk as Trading Range Continues

 

Good day! Monday brought with it the choppier trading day that we were looking for. The morning was pretty weak though. After gapping up into resistance at the open with the NASDAQ 5 minute 200 sma and 15 minute 20 sma, as well as moving average resistance intraday in the Dow Jones Ind. Ave., the market began to sell off. This triggered Bear Flag on the 5 minute Dow and the downside pace continued to pick up heading into the 10:15 ET reversal period.

As the reversal period hit, the market saw an increase in volume with strong price support as the NASDAQ hit prior lows on the 60 minute chart. This, combined with the moving average support, led to a decent bounce into resistance on the 5 minute charts. The pace on the pullback coming off that resistance was much more gradual, taking three times to pull back than it did to bounce in the first place. This made for a shallow Phoenix in the NASDAQ and a double bottom in the Dow Jones going into the 12:00 ET reversal period. The rally was nice for daytrading, pulling back into opening levels in the stronger SP500 and Dow and into the prior day's close in the weaker NASDAQ before slowing down and turning over again into the afternoon with the 13:00 ET reversal period.

As the day progressed, the risk in the market began to increase. The market became even choppier, but continued to hold support and resistance levels well. The afternoon pivot off mid-day highs was the strongest in the NASDAQ, dropping into the zone of the morning's Phoenix breakout. There it based for about 30 minutes before continuing on a small Avalanche into 14:00 ET, bringing the NASDAQ back into the zone of morning lows where it found support again. A smaller 5 minute Bear Flag then brought the market back lower again before the end of the day. Overall, however, the range on the day, established by morning highs and lows, held into the close.

MRK from the $32-$32.25 zone is beginning to correct a bit. Trailing stops are currently in place no lower than under the 30 day sma. Those with tighter parameters might have been taken out on Monday as the 60 minute 20 sma broke. DG continues to remain of interest. I want to see it base for a few days on the daily charts to allow for a gradual pullback into the 50 day sma. It still has a good shot at creating another strong upside move though. I still do not have a strong bias at the moment, but am going to watch for a 120 minute base at lows for more downside. The support on the weekly and monthly charts is a strong concern, however, so continue to use greater caution on swingtrades.

Economic Reports and Events
Apr 12: Trade Balance for Feb. (8:30 am), FOMC Minutes (2:00 pm), Treasury Budget for Mar (2:00 pm)
Apr 13: Retail Sales for mar (8:30 am), Retail Sales ex-auto for Mar (8:30 am)
Apr 14: Business Inventories for Feb. (8:30 am), Initial Claims 04/09 (8:30 am)
Apr 15: Export Prices ex-ag. For Mar (8:30 am), Import Prices ex-oil for Mar (8:30 am), NY Empire State Index for Apr (8:30 am), Capacity Utilization for Mar (9:15 am), Industrial Production for Mar (9:15 am), Mich. Sentiment -Prel for Apr (9:45 am)
Apr 18: -
Apr 19: Building permits for Mar (8:30 am), Core PPI for Mar (8:30 am), Housing Starts for Mar (8:30 am), PPI for Mar (8:30 am)

Earnings Announcements of Interest
Only stocks with an average daily volume of 500K+ are listed. List may not be complete so be sure to always check your stocks' earnings dates before holding a position overnight. (A) = Earnings after the close, (B) = Earnings before the open, (?) = Earnings time not specified at the time of this writing
Apr 12: ABT (B), AMTD (B), GCI (?), SOSA (07:00 am ET)
Apr 13: AMD (A), AAPL (?), ASML (02:00 am ET), BBT (B), CBH (B), HDI (B), IFIN (A), LRCX (?), MOGN (?)
Apr 14: CREE (?), DJ (B), ETN (?), EMMS (?), FCS (B), FITB (B), FDC (B), GTK (B), HIB (B), MTG (B), PEP (?), RMBS (?), LUV (B), SUNW (A), NYT (B), UNH (B), VIP (?)
Apr 15: C (B), GE (?), KEY (B), MAT (B), RF (B), TRB (B), WB (B)
Apr 18: MMM (B), BAC (B), CHKP (B), CKR (A), CCK (A), LLY (B), HAS (B), IBM (?), JCOM (A), LNCR (A), MDC (A), NSC (?), NVLS (A), PH (B), PHG (01:00 am ET), STI (B), TXN (4:30 pm ET), UDR (A), WERN (A)
Apr 19: ADTN (B), ASD (B), ASO (B), ARMHY (?), BOL (B), BSX (B), CDWC (?), CHB (A), CHFR (A), CNB (B), CYMI (?), DHI (B), DOV (A), EMC (B), FRX (?), FCX (B), GM (08:00 am ET), GILD (A), ITW (08:00 am ET), RX (A), N (A), INTC (?), JNJ (B), JCI (B), JNPR (A), KFT (A), LH (B), LU (?), MEL (?), MGG (B), NCC (?), NTRS (B), PTV (A), RSH (?), SAFC (?), STX (A), SGTL (A), SGI (?), SOV (A), STT (B), SYK (A), SVU (B), SY (B), TASR (B), TER (A), CAKE (A), KO (B), USB (B), WFC (A), YHOO (?)

Toni Hansen is President and Co-founder of the Bastiat Group, Inc., and runs the popular Trading From Main Street. She can be reached at Toni@tradingfrommainstreet.com.