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Currency Markets Remain Volatile as Ranges Narrow
By Jamie Saettele | Published  03/31/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Currency Markets Remain Volatile as Ranges Narrow

EUR/USD - Euro bulls managed to push the pair above 1.2115, a level defended by the 50.0 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally. A further move to the upside will most likely see EUR/USD head toward 1.2227, a level marked by the 61.8 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally. A sustained momentum on the part of the euro bulls will most likely see the pair head higher and target offers around 1.2226, a level marked by the January 25 daily high. However in case dollar longs manage to push the pair below 1.2000 handle, a further advance by the dollar longs will most likely see the pair head lower target euro offers around 1.1932, a level marked by the December 28 daily high and with further advance on the part of the dollar trader seeing the pair head below 1.1900 figure and target bids around 1.1864, a level defended by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally. Indicators are favoring Euro longs with both positive momentum indicator and MACD treading above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver. 

USD/JPY - Japanese Yen longs continued to consolidate within a tight range as USD/JPY rested in top of the bids around 117.35, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the 104.16-121.46 USD rally. A further move on the part of the yen longs will most likely see USD/JPY head lower and target 116.00 figure, a level defended by the January 17 daily high at 115.93. A further move to the downside will most likely see USD/JPY extending its decline toward the psychologically important 115.00 handle, a level protected by the 38.2 Fib of the 104.16-121.46 USD rally and 200-day SMA at 114.90. However in case greenback longs manage to push the pair back above 118.00, , a further move to the upside will most likely see the pair head higher and target yen offers around 118.17, a level marked by the December 30 daily high. A further move to the upside will most likely see the pair extend its gains above 119.00 figure and target offers around 119.39, a level established by the February 3 daily high. Indicators are favoring yen bulls with both negative momentum indicator and negative MACD treading below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver. 

GBP/USD - British pound longs once again tested the bids around 1.7399, a level established by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.8500-1.7048 USD rally after dollar bulls pushed the pair lower. A move above 1.7400 will most likely see sterling longs target the psychologically important 1.7500 handle, a level defended by the 50-day SMA and with a further move to the upside targeting dollar offers around 1.7603, a level marked by the 38.2 Fib of the 1.8500-1.7048 USD rally. However in case dollar longs manage to keep the price action on their side, a decline below 1.7311, a March 24 daily low will most likely see GBP/USD target 1.7281, a level defended by the February 14 daily low. A sustained momentum on the part of the dollar traders most likely seeing GBP/USD head lower and target sterling bids around 1.7188, a level marked by the January 3 daily low. Indicators are mixed with positive momentum indicator diverging from negative MACD treading below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

USD/CHF - Swiss Franc bulls once again found themselves testing offers below 1.3040, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.2240-1.3285 CHF after failing to push the pair below the psychologically important 1.3000 handle, a level defended by the November 28 daily low, As Swiss Franc longs resume their advance, a sustained momentum on the part to the downside will most likely seeing the pair extend its decline toward 1.2885, a level created by the 38.2 Fib of the 1.2240-1.3285 CHF rally. However in case dollar bulls manage to regain the control of the price action and push the pair above 1.3100, a further move to the upside will most likely see USD/CHF head higher and target offers around 1.3201, a level defended by the December 30 daily high. A further move to the upside will most likely see the pair head toward 1.3285, a level established by the 2005 High. Indicators are mixed with negative momentum indicator diverging from positive MACD treading above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver. 

USD/CAD - Canadian dollar bulls succeeded in pushing the greenback longs below 1.1638, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.2799-1.1297 CAD rally, but temporarily stalled around 1.1600 figure. As Loonie longs resume their advance, a further move to the downside will most likely see USD/CAD once again target the 1.1500 figure. a level defended by the March 16 daily low at 1.1512. In case US dollar longs manage to takeover the price action, a move above  1.1700 will most likely see the pair target Loonie offers around 1.1748, a level marked by the January 9 daily high. A sustained upside momentum will most likely see USD/CAD advance above 1.1800 figure and with further momentum targeting 1.1848, a level defended by the 38.2 Fib of the 1.2799-1.1297 CAD rally. Indicators are favoring dollar bulls with both positive momentum indicator and positive MACD treading above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver. 

AUD/USD - Australian dollar bulls saw the momentum of their countermove stall as pair once again headed above the .7100 figure. As Aussie bulls push the pair higher, a further move to the upside will most likely see the pair target greenback offers around .7149, a level marked by the March 21 daily low, and with further move to the upside seeing AUD/USD break above .7200 figure and target offers around .7242, a level established by the 61.8 Fib of the .6780-.7986 AUD rally. However in case US dollar trader manage to push the pair below .7100 and break Aussie bids around .7038, a level defended by the 78.6 Fib of the .6780-.7986 AUD rally, a further move to the downside will most likely see AUD/USD head below the psychologically important .7000 handle and target Aussie bids around .6932, a level marked by the July 29, 2004 daily low. Indicators are favoring US dollar traders with both negative momentum indicator and negative MACD treading below the zero line, with ADX above 25 at 33.17, signaling an existence of a trend, not a direction of one, while overbought Stochastic gives Australian dollar longs a chance to retaliate.

NZD/USD - New Zealand dollar managed to push the pair .6122, a level marked by March 27 daily high, after greenback longs failed to extend their rally. In case NZD/USD manages to sustain the upside momentum, a further move on the part of the New Zealand dollar traders will most likely see the pair extend its advance toward .6247, a level marked by the 78.6 Fib of the .5914-.7486 USD rally. However in case greenback bulls manage to resume their advance and push the pair below .6015, a level defended by the May, 10, 2004 daily low, will most likely see NZD/USD extend its decline below.6000 figure and target bids around .5914 a level marked by the May 18, 2004 daily low. Indicators are favoring US dollar longs with both negative momentum indicator and positive MACD above the zero line, while ADX above 25 at 57.01 signals existence of a maturing trend, not a direction of one, with both oversold oscillators add to a trending outlook.

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.