Energies
A strong move in energies this week came as continued worse than expected declines in distillate inventories and peaking fears of Iranââ,¬â"¢s nuclear issues set the tone for a strong support to develop in the market.  Fridayââ,¬â"¢s profit taking was measured and next week is critical in establishing a top for what should be a bearish move ahead.  The last Fib resistance lies just above this weekââ,¬â"¢s fresh highs and the trend line support in the market is solid at just under $62.50 on the May crude contract.  I suspect the move to unleaded as a pre-summer driving season premium may have one more leg in it as it diverges a bit from heating oil and crude.  Overall, the market remains a place to sell OTM call premium.  Natural gas may be a good long hedge against a short crude play moving forward.

Financials
A choppy stock market found key resistance on Thursday and lacked continued momentum after failing below the contract highs.  Look for a trend setting move in the market by mid-week and the likely setup is for a selloff to ensue.  Bear put spreads are recommended to play the technical and seasonal bear break over the next couple of weeks.  Bonds broke down through the lows following the ambiguous FOMC meeting in which a quarter point hike and little indication of a stoppage in the rate hikes left the market little choice but to push south as expected.  I see continued selling pressure until the Fed minutes which might provide some relief to this bear market.  The dollar choppiness is yet another indicator that the currency market is stuck in a range until a clear Fed interest rate policy is established.  This means sell rallies and buy dips as the market builds long term consolidation before a bull dollar move occurs later in the year.  The Canadian should not be pausing in its bear retracement if it is in fact topping and I recommend a wait and see attitude until fresh lows occur.

Grains
Grains spent the week anticipating the plantings numbers and the volatility off of those reports certainly caused a realignment of expectations heading into the growing season.  My main concern here is that the better than expected numbers in corn is not unlike an unexpectedly low federal trade deficit monthly number ââ,¬â€œ it may be better than expected but how many acres need to planted for there to be an oversupply situation?  The market is going to be overrun with corn if the summer doesnââ,¬â"¢t help out tremendously.  The bean report was quite bearish and the end of day selloff on Friday gave it momentum that needs to be carried into Monday for beans to recalculate fair value.  I am a seller (reference the Trade of the Month) but would buy value if we got down to 5.50 or possibly lower depending upon the technical setup at the time.  Wheat should diverge on its own merits as weather concerns push this crop year into a possible wheat rally.  Buy wheat and sell corn (2 to 5 ratio).  Rice got a boost and could resume its bull trend here.

Meats
The cattle chart is starting to look like red paint bleeding down from a freshly painted wall.  This market is ugly!  The heck with the analysts calling for a retracement ââ,¬â€œ it is long overdue but there is nothing fundamentally or technically to suggest it and if feed prices go up cattle will go down.  After the close, the USDA report came out with 60.104 million hogs and pigs in the U.S., up .7% from a year ago but slightly less than expected.  The market reaction on Monday could be violent and long strangles are recommend to play next weekââ,¬â"¢s volatility.

Metals
Gold and silver surged on Thursday as the dollarââ,¬â"¢s apparent bull move gave way and the overall market hysteria that has caused this metals surge continues.  This bear can only sit back in awe of missing the boat and wait for some type of technical confirmation of a retracement before getting short this market.  Regardless of the inaccuracy of this analystââ,¬â"¢s view of the metals market anyone should realize currently overbought condition and market hysteria is a place to take profits on long positions and a possible bear entry for a much needed price retracement. 

Softs
Coffee remains a strong buy at this key value and seasonal entry point, but needs to break through 110 to get some technical momentum.  I recommend bull call spreads for July.  OJ prices are pausing after a major surge and while there is no real bear argument, a pullback is likely before the hurricane season.  Buying cheap OTM July puts can provide a great risk to reward ratio and spike in volatility premium if the market kicks back a bit.  Cotton got a bit of mixed reports this week but overall remains a strong sell and buying OTM July puts is recommended here as well.  Cocoa harvest in the Ivory Coast is upon us and long strangles or straight long call plays are highly recommended as the market flat line and consolidation is most likely going to end very soon.  Sugar spiked this week, but failed to continue momentum to break to fresh highs.  A down close on Monday could setup a failure in this market.  Cheap puts are recommended.  Lumber remains a short on bounces.

James Mound is the head analyst for www.MoundReport.com, and author of the commodity book 7 Secrets. For a free email subscription to James Mound's Weekend Commodities Review and Trade of the Month, click here.