- Swiss CPI
- Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate
- New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price
Swiss Consumer Price Index (MAR) (05:45 GMT; 01:45 EST)
(MoM) (YoY)
Consensus: 0.2% 1.3%
Previous: 0.3% 1.4%
Outlook: Inflation in Switzerland's $260 billion dollar economy is expected to slow slightly in March from the month before as energies reflect less of a driving factor, while steady demand at home and from abroad continues to place pressure on costs of consumer goods. Swiss consumers have been paramount in permitting businesses to pass on higher input costs onto the economy. Gross output in the final quarter of 2005 accelerated to a five year high directly improving the positions of Switzerland's citizens. Leading the optimistic growth was partly the result of the manufacturing sector accelerating at its fastest pace in two years as orders from the country's largest export destinations balloon on strong global growth trends and an easing currency. With deeper profits and rising demand for goods, Swiss companies have sought to ease quickly reached capacity restraints by investing in human resources and equipment. Employment on a seasonally-adjusted basis fell to 3.5 percent in February. March's German IFO business indicators are also supporting further inflationary expectations from foreign orders. According to the recent release, business confidence was the highest it has been in 15 years, likely making capital investment in Swiss machinery on the top of board of directors' 'to buy' lists.
Previous: Price growth amid consumer goods accelerated to its fastest pace in five months in February as higher prices for energy products and housing spur inflationary pressures. Prominent amongst the inflationary dynamic was undoubtedly the 3.8 percent increase in crude oil and other heating products. Further evidence of crude's influence was the core figure for the month. Excluding volatile products like tobacco, seasonal products, and of course fuels and energies, prices rose a mere 0.4 percent for the same month a year ago. Though the standard growth was well within SNB's believed tolerance band between 2 and 2.5% range, continued improvements in other sections of the economy have prompted policy makers to take a more aggressive stance on annual inflation that has held above 1.0 percent for 16 of the past 17 months. The central bank has predicted that growth this year will average 2.0% following 2005's 1.9% increase. Expectations seem well founded early in the year. Switzerland's jobless rate has fallen to its percent of the available labor force in three years while retail sales have grown consecutively over the previous seven months. Conversely, the bank predicted only 0.8 percent average price growth in consumer goods this year, seemingly invalidating the aggressive policy stance the SNB has taken of late.
Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (FEB) (8:00 GMT; 4:00 EST)
Consensus: 8.3%
Previous: 8.3%
Outlook: Unemployment in the Euro-Zone is expected to remain unchanged at 8.3%, the lowest rate in over three years, as export-led economic growth continues. Companies are reluctant to accelerate employment despite manufacturing expansion at the fastest rate in five years. Businesses are becoming more productive and increasing profits with existing manpower. Inline with releases, the European Central Bank revealed that they expect the economy to widen 2.1% this year. However, inflation is anticipated to follow pace at an average of 2.2% for the year, primarily from consistently high energy costs. Analysts expect that in order to control consumer price escalation, the ECB will raise interest rates from 2.50% to 3.00% by the end of the year.
Previous: In January, the unemployment rate for the Euro-Zone held constant at 8.3%, lower than the anticipated 8.4%. Export-led growth in the region has stimulated an overall downward trend in unemployment, boosting executive and consumer confidence to the highest in almost five years in February. Based on increased confidence and lower unemployment, consumer spending, which accounts for more than half the region's economy, is expected in pick up. Analysts expect growth of 0.5% for the first quarter, accelerating from the 0.3% expansion seen at the end of last year. In March, the European Central Bank raised interest rates for the second time in three months to 2.50% to bring recent 2.3% inflation under control and back within the 2.0%-limit.
New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price (13:00 GMT; 9:00 EST)
Consensus: n/a
Previous: -0.3%
Outlook: The commodity price index is expected to continue along a downward trend for March. Decreased global demand for New Zealand's products and high interest rates continue to hurt the economy. The price index of the commodity basket dear to the island-nation's export market has contracted for the last nine months. This has contributed to relatively flat export values since the beginning of the 2006, which is actually 2.6 percent slower than the year before. This only compounds problems in other areas of the economy. Only 13% of surveyed companies plan to accelerate hiring, while just 18% expect to increase business investments as companies struggle to reach revenue and profit targets. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank forecasts that unemployment will grow from 3.6% to 4.5% in the coming year. Overall economic growth is anticipated to contract 1.2% for the year. Analysts predict that the central bank will cut interest rates as early as September, possibly twice by the end of the year.
Previous: In February, New Zealand's commodity export prices fell for the ninth consecutive month, down -0.3%, primarily from the drop in prices for skins and sheep meat. Skins fell 5.9% on lower demand and increased leather competition, while lamb prices fell 4.9% on increased worldwide meat supplies. The index has dropped 4.0% in the last year. The country's economy contracted 0.1% in the fourth quarter, the first drop in over five years. New Zealand has been faced with decreased business investments, slower manufacturing production, and slump in consumer confidence. Economic deceleration has been attributed to Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard's ultra tight monetary policy. Bollard has driven interest rates up to a record high 7.25%.
Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM