EUR/USD ââ,¬â€œ Range conditions persisted in the EUR/USD as the downward move from late last week found its match at 61.8% fibo support (1.1951-1.2175).  The subsequent rally was impressive with the pair having no problem shooting through former support turned resistance; most notably at the psychological 1.2100 price which was also protected by the 3/28 reaction high of 1.2105.  Immediate resistance waits at the 3/30 pivot high of 1.2175.  A daily close above the 3/17 high of 1.2207 opens the path to the 1.2323/42 zone, defined by the 1/25 high / .382 fibo of 1.3479 to 1.1640.  The 23.6% fibo of 1.1825 to 1.2207 and the 23.6% of 1.1951 to 1.2175 form the first line of defense for bulls at 1.2117/22.  A break targets the 38.2% of the bull wave from 1.1951 at 1.2090.  Stronger support looks to reside at 1.2063 though, as the 38.2% of the wave from 1.1825, the 50% of the wave from 1.1951, and the 10 day SMA all converge.  A close below yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s 1.2032 low is required to negate the bullish implications of yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s hammer.

USD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ The USD/JPY reversed and headed lower at 118.79, just shy of its upper Bollinger band.  Daily oscillators are neutral, especially MACD, which has hovered around its zero line for the past nine trading days.  Trading lately lacks conviction as evidenced by the fact that the 10, 20, 50, and 100 day SMAââ,¬â"¢s all lie within 117.48/51.  The hourly shows a discombobulated head and shoulders with a break of the 117.10 neckline, an area also accompanied by the 50% fibo of 115.48 to 118.80 at 117.40, needed to instill a bearish bias.  Further weakness would target the confluence of the 2/15 spike low / 61.8% of the aforementioned bull wave at 116.75.  Chart congestion is heavy on the hourly and dealer charts until the 76.4% fibo at 116.27. The psychological 118.00 handle offers resistance with a break above giving scope to fibo confluence at the 76.4% of 119.18 to 115.48 / 61.8% of 121.40 to 113.39 at 118.30/34.  Yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s 118.79 high must hold to keep short-term momentum down. 

GBP/USD ââ,¬â€œ Cable reversed to the upside after briefly penetrating its lower Bollinger band / 76.4% of 1.7046 to 1.7935 at 1.7256/59.  The daily chart is left with a double bottom accompanied by yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s bullish hammer.  14 period stochastics on the hourly chart does show a negative cross above 80 but support resides in the form of a series of reaction lows on 3/24 and 3/29 / 76.4% fibo (1.7229-1.7594) at 1.7307/16.  A break below exposes yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s 1.7249 low with 1.7229, the 3/10 and 3/13 low, soon thereafter.  Any follow through from yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s rally challenges the 50% fibo of 1.7594 to 1.7249 / 20 day SMA at 1.7421/26.  Major chart congestion begins at 1.7460 which is also protected with the 61.8% fibo of the just mentioned bear wave at 1.7462.  A break of the highs from 3/31 and 3/30 at 1.7475/81 set the stage for a battle at the 1.7500 psychological mark. 

USD/CHF ââ,¬â€œ The USD/CHF story is similar to other majors.  Although still trapped in range conditions, the pair could be tracing out a right shoulder on the hourly charts which would suggest that the path of least resistance is down.  This view is reinforced by a negative cross on the 14 day stochastics and reverse hammer on the daily.  Sellers will likely position themselves at Fridayââ,¬â"¢s reaction high of 1.3063 followed by the 61.8% fibo of 1.3230 to 1.2869 at 1.3092.  A daily close above yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s 1.3134 high ruins the wipe outs the bearish bias.  Consequently, the psychological 1.3000 handle offers potential buying with a break exposing lows on 3/30 and 3/28 at 1.2956/76.  Seemingly stronger support exists at a zone indicated by the 200 day SMA (1.2899), the 1.2892 spike low on 3/6, and the 50% fibo of 1.2553 to 1.3235 at 1.2894.

USD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ The USD fared slightly better against its Canadian counterpart before finding heavy sellers two pips shy of the 200 day SMA.  Divergence with MACD histogram on the daily and RSI on the dealer chart lends an air of uncertainty though as to whether USD/CAD has the legs to continue its move up.  A break above yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s high at 1.1771, joined by the 200 day SMA, exposes the obvious 1/19 spike high at 1.1796.  If bulls can explode through the important 1.1800 figure, then 38.2% fibo resistance of the 1.2730 to 1.1297 bear wave comes into play at 1.1844.  Immediate dip buying at 1.1700 is a possibility with a fall below the handle probing 1.1664 (.236 of 1.1297-1.1771).  A daily close below 1.1574, last weekââ,¬â"¢s low, is necessary in order to overturn the bullish bias set forth by the rally from the low of 1.1297.

AUD/USD ââ,¬â€œ AUD/USD consolidated recent gains yesterday and found support just below the 23.6% of the recent .7014-.7185 bull wave at .7120.  Daily oscillators suggest a test of .7185 with stochastics and RSI rising above oversold levels in recent days and MACD on the cusp of a crossover.  A break of yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s .7185 high leads to a possible test of the .7232 fibo of .7585 to .7014 at .7232, which is also the 12/27/2005 low and former breakout level.  Gains must be capped there to keep the medium-term bias bearish.  Look no further for support than the fibo levels of the recent bounce from .7014 with the 50% coming in at the psychologically important .7100 and the 61.8% at .7080.

NZD/USD ââ,¬â€œ Kiwi continues to get pounded, albeit not with the same force as witnessed last week.  The contra-move up came to an end at .6176, a level marked by the 3/22 reaction low.  Only a daily close above the .6176 high from yesterday would negate our immediate bearish stance.  The 10 day SMA currently at .6113 serves as the most near term resistance.  Further weakness may endure a bout at the psychological .6000, with the .5991 low from last Wednesday just below.  A break there could trigger yet another wave of selling with buyers possibly providing relief at or just above the 5/18/2004 low of .5909.             

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM