CAD/JPY – CAD/JPY continues to consolidate within the large triangle that began forming after hitting 105 on December 6.  Hourly oscillators favor longs as evidenced by the recent positive MACD crossover and RSI/stochastics rising above 50.  The upper end of the short term range is defined by the 3/24 and 3/31 highs at 101.45.  A break opens the door for an assault on the 61.8% of the 105.02-97.10 bear wave / 3/16 high at 101.98/102.02.  Longer term resistance sits at the intersection of the 76.4% fibo (105.02-97.10) and upper boundary of the large daily triangle at 103.13.  A break above argues for a resumption of the 2005 uptrend.  The 61.8% fibo of 97.10 to 104.11 offers support at 99.78 with the lower boundary of the large daily triangle just below.  A break exposes the 76.4% fibo of the bull wave from 97.10 at 98.75.  A daily close below the 2006 low of 97.10 is required to instill a truly bearish bias.       

CHF/JPY – CHF/JPY is making its way back to the upper end of its recent range bound by 90.80 after finding 61.8% fibo support (87.63-90.78) at 88.84.  The 3/16 high at 90.78 is also characterized by the upper Bollinger band and with the bands as tight as they are a break above could see volatility return and push the pair to towards the 2/3 high at 92.20.  Furthering the bullish cause is the reverse head and shoulders continuation pattern with two left shoulders in December and January, the head in late February/early March and one right shoulder just completing.  A break above the neckline at 91.15 is necessary in order to complete the pattern.  Support at the low of the right shoulder / 50% fibo of 84.72 to 93.13 at 88.84/94 serves as support.  A break below the low of the left most shoulder at 88.29 would negate the bullish h&s continuation pattern.

NZD/JPY – Kiwi did get a bit of relief against the JPY as it bounced off of its lower Bollinger band and made a small corrective move before failing at its 10 day SMA.  A break of the 3/28 low at .7047 paves the way for a resumption of the downtrend that began on December 6, 2005.  With the current leg down from the 2/3 high of 81.95 measuring nearly 127% of the first leg down from 87.05 to 77.94; conventional wave theory suggests that we may be entering a wave 4 period of consolidation.  If not, then look for support at 69.36, 138.2% of the first bear wave, or 67.19, which is 161.8% of the wave.  If the market does indeed consolidate losses, then the 4/3 high at 72.98 could see selling with a break targeting the 3/23 and 3/24 highs at 73.65/68

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.