- UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence
- Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision
- European PMI Services
UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence (MAR) (23:01 GMT; 19:01 EST)
Consensus: 95
Previous: 94
Outlook: Analysts expect consumer confidence in Europe's second largest economy to pick up in March on reduced unemployment and increased wages over the same period. Unemployment improved slightly from 5.1% to 5.0% over the month, while wage costs for companies - income for employees - increased 2.9%. In addition, consumer prices are showing signs that they have begun to normalize and the future economic outlook seems to be improving. The economy expanded by 0.6% in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, housing inflation and strong mortgage demand have reduced downside risks to the economy associated with household demand and brighten consumers' confidence that their equity is safe in their most valuable asset. Should the figure report higher, it may be reflective of underlying consumer strength, countering notions by officials that consumer remain hesitant.
Previous: Nationwide consumer confidence dropped to a read of 94 in February on increased concern over future personal finances. Analysts attribute the dip in sentiment to prolonged cold weather in the UK. The reading contrasts the recent rebounds in the housing market, which account for two-thirds of the country's economy. The Bank of England expects the revival in the property market to be the driving force behind economic recovery in the country. Home prices increased 1.1% in March, while retail sales have made a rebound from January's decline. Overall inflation widened 2.0% for the year in February. The Bank of England left interest rates at 4.50% as the economy seems to be improving without the need of an additional rate cut.
RBA Interest Rate Decision (23:30 GMT; 19:30 EST)
Consensus: 5.50%
Previous: 5.50%
Outlook: Interest rates are expected to pass the RBA meeting unchanged at 5.50% at the culmination of the April 4th meeting as general indicators begin to improve. Since the last meeting in March, improvements in employment, business and consumer confidence and trade, have all offered revitalized speculation in the inevitability of another interest rate hike suggested by RBA Governor Ian McFarlane. In the consumer arena, a 1.3% rise in consumer confidence in March backed a drop in February's jobless rate to 5.2%. A weak showing in the domestic consumption was one of the main forces that kept rate policy officials neutral through the last few meetings. However, these two new indicators, along with a subsequent 0.7 percent rise in retail sales in February, have begun to show initial signs of lending the economy its support. Since the last meeting an indicator reported confidence in the corporate arena was at its highest level in a year in February, while AiG's March manufacturing index turned positive with a 53.2 read. Despite these strong showings, the housing market continued to flounder. Home loans in January were reportedly unchanged following a 0.4% rise last year, while fourth quarter dwelling starts loomed in policy makers' minds with a 7.5% contraction. One of the most foreboding indicators may have been TD Securities' inflation gauge, which posted a reduction in annual inflation to 2.6%, well within the 3%, bank-imposed cap.
Previous: The Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate body decided to keep overnight lending rate unchanged at 5.50% for the 12th month after witnessing evidence that growth in the A$870 billion economy slowed. Expansion in the final three months of 2005 capped a lackluster year with a 0.5% pace of growth over the third quarter, the slowest such pace since 2001. This brought the overall tempo for the year down to a 2.5% clip, denoting the slowest most measure growth in four years. Over the previous quarter, consumer spending and the housing market were the drawdowns on expansion. Domestic spending, which accounts for nearly 60% of the economy, rose only 2.9% in the last half of 2005 for the weakest performance equally since 2001, despite an improving employment picture. Residential housing strength was also slowing, measured by housing approvals. Developers broke ground on 1.9% fewer homes in January for the largest dip since April of 2001. The inactivity of the RBA sticks out like a sore thumb on the background of 15 rate hikes in the US and 2 hikes from the European Central Bank. While central bank Governor Mcfarlane has said the next move would come in the form of a rate hike, he has given no definable timetable. However, accompanying Mcfarlane's expectations of a hike came from a strong job market. Employment is near a 29 year high and the only thing that is holding it back is higher wages which are expected to manifest themselves in the coming months.
European PMI Services (MAR) (08:30 GMT; 04:30 EST)
Consensus: 58.2
Previous: 58.2
Outlook: A read on the European services sector is expected to repeat its most optimistic read in five years for March with some offsetting indicators presenting themselves to service managers over the period. Major areas of optimism for the period are likely to be found with rising Euro-zone consumer spending and sentiment indicators, while those detracting from overall confidence in the sector will be sour fourth quarter expenditure figures as well as a trade number all released over the interim survey period. Being a confidence indicator itself, the PMI services indicator will most likely draw a lot of its direction from a similar Euro-zone services confidence indicator for March. The separate indicator reported sentiment in the sector rose over the month to match the highest level in at least nine months. Elsewhere, the most recent retail sales indicator, that of January, reported an 0.8 percent increase over the period. Some areas for worry will exist however. A slew of fourth quarter business investment, government spending and household consumption all slowed, suggesting a weak start for the new year. More recent a threat however was the trade balance between the euro region and the rest of the globe. Exports grew a slight 0.4% in January, causing the trade deficit to balloon to 10.8 billion euros. Traders and policy officials will keep their eyes on the service PMI number to gauge if the world's third largest economy will be able to match optimistic growth expectations from policy officials and allow Jean-Claude Trichet and the European Central Bank to continue its recent shift to policy tightening.
Previous: The European service sector, which comprises nearly a quarter of the region's $9 trillion economy, accelerated to its quickest pace in over five years in January on the back of export driven demand and burgeoning confidence at home. The survey revealed a 58.2 percent majority of the polled 2,000 service-based company purchasing managers reported current conditions were positive, greater than the 57.0 read from the month before. Exports continued to play a heavy hand in the growth in the overall economy. Resilience in the global economy to recent crude oil price shocks has led many economists and officials to reflect that the current pace of growth is sturdy and Europe's competitive service businesses will continue to profit from this. Further helping out shipments abroad has been a 13.5% depreciation in Europe's shared currency against the benchmark US dollar last year. At home, booming confidence has translated to increasing profits. Both consumers and business leaders were the most confident over the period than that had been in the past five years. In turn, this has led improved hiring trends - the jobless rate falling to 8.3 percent, and lending to both businesses and citizens jumping to a five-year record pace. This increase in services activity was one of the main reasons the ECB revised its growth expectations to 2.1% this year from earlier estimates of 1.9%.
Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.