EUR/USD - The highly touted 1.2207 3/17 high / 38.2% fibo of 1.3123 -1.1640 gave way to higher prices yesterday and EUR/USD subsequently blasted through the medium term resisting trendline (originating in September 2005).  The break of 1.2207 lends a bullish bias to the market which is substantiated by the 20 day SMA crossing above the 200 day SMA for the first time since 10/5/2004 and the beginning of the violent uptrend to 1.3600.  However, weakness is of course a possibility as the pair trades at the confluence of its upper Bollinger band / 127% fibo of 1.2207 to 1.1950.  Contra moves should be met with support at former resistance / former breakout point of 1.2207 with further weakness probing the 23.6% fibo of 1.1640-1.2326 at 1.2165.  An all out failure of this move up could see prices test the psychological 1.2100 which is also the current 10 day SMA.  Buyers may contend with resistance at the 1.2323/42 zone, an area suggested by the 1/25 high / 38.2% fibo of 1.3478-1.1640, with a break above exposing the psychological 1.2400.    

USD/JPY - USD/JPY remains confined within its large symmetrical triangle pattern that originated on 12/06/2005.  Momentum is to the downside as daily oscillators turn down and MACD creeps below 0.  Bolstering the cautiously bearish cause is the interim break below support at the confluence of the 38.2% fibo of 113.39-119.39 / 3/30 low at 117.10.  This development gives scope to a test of the 1.1625/40 zone, marked by the 3/28 low / 50% fibo of the bullish wave from 113.39.  Nonetheless, a daily close below the supporting trendline around 116.10/20 is required to adopt an aggressive bearish stance with the 3/20 low of 115.49 a likely first target.  Hourly oscillators indicate that short term conditions are oversold, increasing the probability for a pullback of the recent move down.  Intraday chart congestion is heavy from 117.10/30, indicated by reaction lows on 3/9, 3/30 and the 50% fibo of 119.18-115.49 at 117.33.  An extended move back into the range may target the 61.8% fibo of the downward move from 119.18 at 117.77 with a break opening up the psychologically important 118.00.  The resisting trendline originating on 12/05 is projected near 118.50 with a break above negating bearish implications from recent price action.

GBP/USD - Cable participated in the anti US dollar move as well, trading up over two big figures before stalling just ahead of psychologically important 1.7600 resistance.  The figure is accompanied by the 38.2% fibo of 1.8504-1.7047 at 1.7597 further threatening recent GBP strength.  Even with the move from 1.7250 over the past two days, the technical picture is a bit cluttered but a daily close above the 200 day SMA at 1.7622 lends clarity and bullish implications to a pair that has been trapped in a range for the better part of 2006.  Daily oscillators favor longs with recent MACD and stochastics positive crosses and RSI progressing beyond its midpoint of 50.  As such, a break above the 200 day SMA of 1.7622 opens the door for an assault on the 61.8% fibo of the 1.7933-1.7230 2006 downward move at 1.7662 after which one can expect contention at the psychological 1.7700.  An aggressive break above exposes the 50% fibo on the downward move from 1.8504 at 1.7773.  A bounce off the pending 1.7600 resistance looks to return GBP back to the 3/28 reaction high of 1.7536, which served as intraday support and subsequent resistance yesterday.  1.7508, the 23.6% fibo of 1.7230-1.7593, is backup protection for bulls with a break returning us back to range conditions and a possible test of the 50/100 SMA confluence at 1.7483/79.                

USD/CHF - USD/CHF fell through supports yesterday including its 50, 100, and 200 day SMA's, leaving longs in quite the precarious position.  A daily close below the 3/17 low of 1.2869 would reinforce a bearish outlook.  The hourly chart shows slight divergence with oscillators just shy of 1.2857 support defined by the 23.6% fibo of 1.1476-1.3279, suggesting a pullback from the 1.3134 Monday high.  Such a scenario might find sellers at the Tokyo session reaction high / 50% fibo of 1.3283-1.2553 at 1.2920.  Further advances give scope to a return of yesterday's breakout level / 20 and 50 day SMA's at 1.3020/25.  A resumption of the downward move from 1.3134 opens the door for a test of the 61.8% fibo of 1.2551-1.3235 at 1.2813 with a break below finding the 50% fibo of the bull move from 1.2235 at 1.2760.  Similar to the other majors, MACD is in pre-breakout form with a recent cross very close to the 0 line.

USD/CAD - USD/CAD was rejected at the upper Bollinger band yesterday and made its way back to the 20 day SMA at 1.1626 to close at 1.1620.  A continuation of weakness targets 1.1574/90, the confluence of the 3/31 low / 38.2% fibo of 1.1297-1.1771.  The longer term (100, 200) moving averages are still sloping down and daily MACD made a negative cross yesterday which all suggests that the correction from 1.1297 may have topped out at 1.1771.  If that is the case, then 1.1590 gives way to the 50% retrace of the bull move from 1.1297 at 1.1534 followed by the 61.8% at 1.1478.  Still, a short term supporting trendline on the hourly chart from 3/02 could provide a bounce higher but sellers look to contain moves at 1.1643, denoted by spike lows on 3/23 and 3/28.  Significant buying could return USD/CAD to Monday's spike low at 1.1695. 

AUD/USD -AUD/USD continues to recoup the heavy losses suffered recently but upward momentum is waning, especially on the hourly, as negative divergence with MACD gives scope to a return to lower prices.  Particularly disconcerting for bulls is the resisting trendline from 3/06 that sits just above current prices at .7270.  A break though does open the door to .7300, which is backed by the 50% fibo of .7585-.7015.  A resumption of the 2006 downtrend targets Monday's reaction high and subsequent breakout point of .7185 after which Friday's low of .7113 becomes a prime target.      

NZD/USD - Kiwi has been beaten down lately but today's hammer is indication that relief may lie ahead for NZD/USD.  Furthering this hypothesis is RSI and stochastics rising above oversold levels on the daily.  Strength runs into resistance at the 50% of .6293-.5990 at .6142.  Seemingly stronger selling though exists at the confluence of the 61.8% fibo (from .6293) and 4/2 high of .6177 after which a break sheds some light on the psychological .6200 figure.  A continuation of the downward move from early December would meet support from yesterday's New York session at .6067 with a break exposing yesterday's low of 1.6012.  Just below is the 2006 low made last Thursday of .5991 of which a break could open the flood gates and lead to more aggressive selling. 

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.