AUD/CAD - AUD has fought back against the loonie the last week and a half after receiving rough treatment throughout all of 2006.  The pair found support last week at .8222 - the 76.4% fibo of the.7504-1.0543 April 2001 to February 2004 bull wave and has rallied off that support for more than 200 pips.  Slight divergence on the weekly and a recent positive stochastics cross on the daily point to eventual additional gains but the shorter term picture is more problematic for bulls.  Negative divergence with oscillators on the hourly and dealer charts accompanied by 61.8% fibo resistance from .8546-.8208 at current levels make immediate advances possible but not probable.  The 20 day SMA at 83.88 could lend support in the case of a pullback from the recent advance with a break targeting the confluence of the 10 day SMA / 50% fibo of .8207-.8437 at 83.18/23.  Yesterday's .8437 high lends immediate resistance with a push above exposing the 3/9 reaction high at .8551. 

AUD/JPY - AUD/JPY has rebounded nicely and currently sits atop its 20 day SMA.  Yesterday's positive MACD cross confirms the bullish bias and a close above the 4/3 reverse hammer at 85.00 would remove any remaining bearish implications.  The confluence of the 2/27 low and 50% fibo of 89.34-82.05 at 85.42/55 offers current resistance and a break gives scope for a test of the 200 day SMA at 85.94.  Chart congestion persists until the 61.8% fibo of the move down from 89.34 comes into play at 86.55.  Any selling at the 85.00 handle could push prices to today's Tokyo low at 84.33 upon which a break may see an assault on the combination of yesterday's low / 10 day SMA at 83.78/80.          

AUD/NZD - The AUD has dominated the currency of its smaller neighbor since the start of December 2005 with little more than a minor correction since that time.  The move has been so impressive that even a retreat to the 10 day SMA has been rare lately.  Yesterday's 1.1887 high and subsequent long wick combined with ominous resistance from the September 2001 low at 1.1874 may grant much needed relief to longs.  As such, the 4/21 high of 1.1788 presents support with a break targeting the 10 day SMA at 1.1675.  Of course, a bearish stance in such a strong uptrend is quite an aggressive position.  Higher targets going forward include yesterday's 1.1887 high with significant buying bringing about the possibility of an assault on the 50% fibo of the 1.3556-1.0424 level at 1.1988, just ahead of the psychologically important 1.2000 handle.

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.