1. Euro-zone Retail PMI
2. Bank of England Rate Decision
3. European Central Bank Rate Decision
4. Canadian Ivey PMI

Euro-Zone Retail PMI (MAR) (08:00 GMT; 04:00 EST)
Consensus: n/a
Previous:  49.6

Outlook:   No estimates have yet been issued regarding the Euro-Zone Retail Purchasing Managers Index.  However, given recent trends in weak consumer confidence and meager retail activity, it is unlikely that March's Retail PMI figure will fare any better than the previous month's.  While business confidence and expectations of industrial growth continue to strengthen throughout Europe, optimism amongst consumers is still relatively low.  Although European companies face immense growth potential in the coming year, they have been slow to add jobs to their local economies.  Unemployment may be falling across Europe, but not at a fast enough rate to encourage consumers to spend more.  Instead, consumers have become wary of the ubiquity of high oil prices and steeper borrowing rates thanks to the ECB's commitment to combating even the slightest onsets of inflation.  In an environment of soaring energy prices and lofty borrowing costs, it may take a few months of sustained economic expansion before consumers are convinced to buy more.

Previous:  In February, the Euro-Zone's Retail PMI fell for the second straight month from 49.7 to 49.6.  Although the drop was minimal, it raises concerns over a softening in consumer consumption throughout the region.  After peaking at 52.2 in December 2005, the Retail PMI has begun to show managers' skepticism in restocking inventories.  Retail sales simply have not been strong enough to support heavy orders at the wholesale level.  February's month to month change in retail sales volume through the Euro-Zone was -0.2%, reflecting a tightening of consumers' pockets after the holiday season buying frenzy.  Although economic sentiment indicators have been improving in the Euro-Zone, much of this improvement is a result of industrial optimism.  Consumer confidence, on the other hand, is waning in many countries and has had a detrimental effect on retail trade.  Specifically, a return to higher prices in petroleum and related products in the second half of February did little to encourage consumer optimism.  As a result of the miserly consumer, managers were forced to cut back on new retail inventory orders.  

Bank of England Rate Decision (07:00 GMT; 11:00 EST)
Consensus: 4.50%
Previous:  4.50%

Outlook:   At its previous meeting, the UK's Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep the overnight lending rate unchanged at 4.50%, and this week's gathering is expected to yield the same result.  A unanimous expectation has been cast by the market for an eighth consecutive pass on shifting interest rates as the economy steps back into growth and inflation hovers near the bank's target.  Since the previous meeting, policymakers were reaffirmed in the slow improvement in the overall economy.  The government's final read on growth tallied in slightly lower than previous estimates to 1.8%.  Also January's jobless rate nudged lower to 5.0% while February retail sales rose 0.5% following the previous month's 1.6% drop.  However, this rebound in growth is reserved and has been a touching point for Stephen Nickell. Since December, Nickell has voted to lower the lending rate another 25 basis points on the belief that expansion forecasts are optimistic and the labor market could quickly soften.  Then again, Nickell's days as the sole proponent of a rate shift are coming to an end.  The dove will leave the Bank at the end of May and will be replaced by Dartmouth College professor David Blanchflower.  On the other side of the interest rate equation are reserved levels of price growth.  Inflation on consumer goods read 2.0% annual growth in February, in line with the central bank's target.  Nevertheless, the board remains steadfast against another loosening of rates to jumpstart the economy because second round inflation from volatile energy could still be on the horizon.  Additionally, the policy body believes lower lending rates will once again drive a housing run that could quickly bring interest rates back to the BoE's tolerance bound. 

European Central Bank Rate Decision (11:45 GMT; 07:45 EST)
Consensus: 2.50%
Previous:  2.50%

Outlook:   The European Central Bank is expected to keep its benchmark lending rate unchanged at this week's policy meeting following the quarter point increases on December 1st and last month on March 2nd.  While this meeting is not expected to result in a change in policy, recent comments coming from officials have perked the capital market's ears and driven speculation that comments from ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet following the decision will intensify the bank's hawkish tone.  Recent comments from Trichet have continued to voice the bank's dutiful obligation to contain inflation that has held above their target 2.0% for over six years.  Indicators since the decision to boost the lending rate to 2.50% were somewhat mixed however.  A preliminary read of fourth quarter economic expansion in the $9.5 trillion region economy revealed a 1.7% with expectations of sub-2% growth for at least the current year.  This is disappointing compared to global counterparts.  On the other hand, business confidence remains a driving force behind the steady level of inflation, which printed at an annual 2.3% pace in February.   Business sentiment in Germany, Europe's largest economy rose to its highest level in nearly 5 years, while European firms confidence similarly rose. Some caution may be thrown in to the mix however with data releases suggesting some laggards in the growth machine.  Consumer optimism cooled over the same period.  The Euro-zone confidence indicator read fell from -10 to -11 in March, while retail sales fell 0.2% in the previous month. 

Canadian Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (MAR) (14:00 GMT; 10:00 EST)
Consensus: 62.0
Previous:  59.5

Outlook:   Economists are predicting the Ivey School of Business's monthly Purchasing Managers Index to rise to 60.8 for March.  Strong corporate profits are expected to promote business expansion through investment in machinery and labor.  As employment levels continue to rise, so will consumer spending.  As such, domestic demand in Canada will serve to counterbalance the drag that is being placed on the nation's economy by unfavorable trade conditions.  Relatively strong commodities markets have given the Canadian dollar a boost, which has had a negative impact on Canadian trade.  Higher spending at home, however, will prevent weak international trade from slowing down the country's economy.  Of course, increased levels of domestic consumption could spur greater concern over inflation.  To combat this inflation, the Bank of Canada is expected to remain steadfast in its policy to tighten interest rates. 

Previous:  Canada's Ivey PMI jumped to a three-month high of 59.5 in February from 54.1 in January.  Much of the gain in the headline figure resulted from a surge in the employment index, which soared to 64.5 from 52.4, suggesting that more Canadians found work over the month. In spite of the surge in employment, inflation remained in check.  The report's price index fell slightly from 70.8 to 70.1.  Similarly, the report's inventory measure fell to 54.1 from 54.3, indicating a build in stockpiles.  In contrast, the supplier deliveries gauge rose to 42 from 41, implying that it took longer to deliver goods after orders were placed.  In line with the Ivey index's report of growing business activity and higher employment levels, the Bank of Canada kicked interest rates higher to 3.75% in March.  Although the report showed no evidence of inflation at the moment, potential for inflationary pressure to build was imminent as businesses' pricing power increased on higher employment.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.