EUR/USD ââ,¬â€œ The most heavily traded pair in fx saw limited follow through after taking off for 120 pips the previous day.  The possibility of a pullback remains in play  as EUR/USD trades at its upper Bollinger band on the daily and shows negative divergence with oscillators on the hourly.  Contra moves could meet buyers at the recent breakout former resistance / 3/17 high at 1.2207 with a break giving way to 38.2% (1.1950-1.2304) fibo support at 1.2171.  The confluence of the 10 day SMA / 50% fibo of the recent bull move from 1.1950 generates possible interest at 1.2127/32.  A continuation of strength contends with the 1.2323/40 zone, defined by the 1/25 high / 38.2% fibo of 1.3479-1.1635.  Additional gains would set sights on the psychological 1.2400. 

USD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ USD/JPY spent some time trading below 117.00 yesterday, faking out traders looking for a break to the downside, before returning back above the figure and completing a bullish hammer candlestick on the daily.  Expectations for a breakout abound as price approaches the apex of its symmetrical triangle on the daily chart.  Yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s 116.67 low / the 61.8% fibo of 115.48-118.79 at 116.75 are viewed as a support zone with a break exposing the 76.4% fibo / 3/27 reaction low of 116.27.  Bids may stall close to the imposing 118.00 figure as the 61.8% fibo of 118.79-116.68 rests at 117.98.  A break would target the upper end of the symmetrical triangle that began back in December 2005 near Mondayââ,¬â"¢s high of 118.79.  A break above opens the door for a rally towards the 3/10 high of 119.13.  

GBP/USD ââ,¬â€œ Like the euro, cable was not able to match its previous dayââ,¬â"¢s (4/4) strength and GBP/USD made its high at the upper Bollinger band in classic range trading conditions.  Daily oscillators still show a bullish bias with the recent positive MACD and stochastics crossovers but a daily close above yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s 1.7616 reaction high, accompanied by the 200 day SMA at 1.7619, is required to obtain a more aggressive position.  A break above that key level opens the door for a test of 50% fibo resistance from 1.8501-1.7042 at 1.7773.  Intraday oscillators have been helpful lately given the persistence of the recent range.  Hourly RSI sloping down from overbought levels and MACD creeping towards the 0 line point to a possible return to todayââ,¬â"¢s low at 1.7480 with further weakness exposing the 50% fibo of 1.7248-1.7616 at 1.7433.                 

USD/CHF ââ,¬â€œ The Swissie fared better than the other majors, tacking on 60 more pips against the dollar and registering a close below resistance created by the 3/16 and 3/17 lows at 1.2869/70.  Reinforcing bearishness is the close below the 200 day SMA.  If more weakness is to transpire going forward consolidation / pullback is likely, considering the divergence on the hourly charts,.  Todayââ,¬â"¢s low combined with the 61.8% fibo of 1.2555-1.3235 at 1.2812/17 presents an obstacle for bears as does the 1/31 low of 1.2738.  Intraday support comes into play at the 23.6% fibo of 1.3134-1.2811 / 200 day SMA at 1.2888/98.  Additional gains target the 38.2% fibo of the same downward move at 1.2933 with the 3/30 reaction low at 1.2974 providing further resistance.     

USD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ The loonie, like the Swissie, is strengthening against the dollar as the pair approaches the 38.2% fibo of the 1.1297-1.1771 recent bull wave at 1.1593.  A negative MACD cross and downside 12 day momentum on the daily suggest a weakening USD/CAD going forward with a sustained break of 1.1593 giving scope to the 50% fibo on the aforementioned bull wave / 50 day SMA at 1.1533/37.  Any strength would likely contend with sellers at yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s reaction high from the London session at 1.1649.  A daily close above Mondayââ,¬â"¢s 1.1771 high is required to re-instill the bullish bias that had previously gripped the market.  

AUD/USD ââ,¬â€œThe AUD continues its assault on the US dollar, gaining for the fourth time in 5 days.  The pair has now retraced half of its 571 pip loss that began on 2/1 and ended on 3/29.  However, the confluence of the 61.8% fibo of the .7585-.7014 bear wave and resisting trendline from 2/1 provide serious resistance for AUD bulls at .7365.  A break above would soon meet the 3/15 high at .7409.  Todayââ,¬â"¢s Tokyo low at .7260 offers instant support with further weakness possibly pervading until the 20 day SMA at .7214.  A break below the Monday high / previous resistance and breakout point of .7185 is necessary to return the market to a bearish bias.      

NZD/USD ââ,¬â€œ Kiwi made gains yesterday following its hammer candlestick formation the day before.  The pair closed above its 10 day SMA for the first time since 3/3, suggesting more of a bounce from the extremely oversold conditions that inundated the market for the past month.  The 3/22 .6178 low serves as immediate resistance with a push above targeting the 23.6% fibo of .6996-.5990 at .6225.  A double top on the hourly chart points to possible weakness back to the 10 day SMA at .6100.  A daily close below the .5991 low on 3/29 could trigger more selling and a resumption of the downtrend that began on 1/16. 

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.