GBP/JPY ââ,¬â€œ GBP/JPY currently trades north of the upper end of its recent 204.00 to 206.00 consolidation.  The 4/4 close above the upper Bollinger band coupled with the recent MACD cross lends pound bulls strong upbeat at tone.  Yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s pullback to the 50/100 day SMA convergence of 205.30/50 serves as solid initial support with additional losses targeting the 61.8% fibo of the 200.53-211.20 January bull wave at 204.61.  If indeed the break of previous resistance at 206.15 (3/13 high) is the break, then buyers will target the 61.8% fibo of 211.18-201.63 / 2/21 high at 207.53/74 with chart congestion absent until the 76.4% fibo of the same bear wave at 208.89.

GBP/CHF ââ,¬â€œ GBP/CHF is trading towards the bottom of its long standing range of 2.2350 to 2.3050.  There is nothing to suggest that the wide swinging range dating to July of 2005 will suddenly cease and as such the path of least resistance in the short term would remain down with yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s low of 2.2449 providing closest support.  A break may trigger an assault on the 50% retrace of the 2.1473-2.3302 November 2004-June 2005 bull wave at 2.2390 with the bottom of the range at 2.2350 a third target.  On the other hand, strength runs into formidable resistance at the daily lows of 3/17 and 4/3 at 2.2606/08 with strong buying targeting the 50% fibo of the recent 2.2900-2.2449 bear wave at 2.2675. 

GBP/AUD ââ,¬â€œ The British pound continues to weaken after forming a thin head and shoulders reversal pattern from 3/20 to 4/5.  Yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s close below the 20 day SMA and sudden downside momentum points to further weakening for a test of the 61.8% fibo of the 2.3351-2.2483 violent March bull wave at 2.3923.  Continuation of the head and shoulders aftermath opens up the possibility of a test to the 76.4% fibo of the March upward move at 2.3703.  Slight positive divergence on the hourly sets up for a possible corrective move to the 4/3 low of 2.4072 with a material contra move targeting the 3/22 low at 2.4196.  A daily close above the top of the left and right shoulders at 2.4440 would negate the bearish implications of the head and shoulders reversal pattern.

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.