EUR/USD ââ,¬â€œ As expected, EUR/USD has pulled back after Tuesdayââ,¬â"¢s exciting explosion to the upside.  The 38.2% fibo of 1.1950-1.2331 has held at 1.2186 but a break could trigger a downward move to 1.2140/43 ââ,¬â€œ a level defined by the confluence of the 10 day SMA / 50% fibo of the bull move from 1.1950.  The hourly looks ripe for strength going forward with a positive stochastics crossover and MACD-Histogram positive divergence.  Yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s 1.2241 reaction low offers immediate resistance with a break contending with yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s 1.2331 high.  Chart congestion is light beyond that level with a break probing the 50% fibo of the 1.3479-1.1636 March (2005) to November 2005 bear wave at 1.2556.

USD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ USD/JPY continues to trade sideways between 117.25 and 118.00.  Oscillators on weekly, daily, and hourly are all concentrated near their midpoints of 50 (RSI, stochastics), or 0 (MACD, CCI), confirming the equilibrium we see at present.  Taking a step back, the weekly chart is slightly bullish with the recent consolidation looking like a symmetrical triangle continuation pattern after the bull move from 101.69-121.38.  A daily close above the upper end of the triangle that began formation in December / 4/3 high at 118.79 is required to take a more aggressive stance.  Yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s 117.25 low serves as initial support with a break targeting the zone defined by the low on 4/5 / 61.8% of 115.48-118.79 at 116.66/75.

GBP/USD ââ,¬â€œ Like the euro, Cable has lost a portion of its recent gains finding most recent support at its 100 day SMA of 1.7485.  Weakness beyond the 4/5 1.7480 low probes the 50% fibo of the recent rise from 1.7249-1.7616 at 1.7433 with a daily close below 1.7249 required to instill a bearish bias.  Still, daily oscillators are cautiously bullish with MACD creeping over the 0 line and RSI holding above its neutral 50.  The 1.7600-1.7625 zone, bound by the 38.2% fibo of 1.8501-1.7046 and the 3/6 high, forms resistance of which a break above provides ammunition for bulls to eventually test the 50% of 1.8501-1.7046 at 1.7770.

USD/CHF ââ,¬â€œ Same story, different currency as the Swissie also gives up a fraction of recent gains to the US dollar.  USD/CHF bounced off of its lower Bollinger band yesterday at 1.2817 indicating a resumption of range trading for the time being.  The excitement stirred among bears with the close below the 200 day SMA on 4/5 is waning as the pair again trades back above the long term moving average.  The current price is resisted by the 38.2% fibo of the most recent 1.3134-1.2803 move downward at 1.2929 with a break above seeing possible strength continue until the 3/28 low / 10 day SMA at 1.2976/86.  Previous intraday resistance combined with the 76.4% fibo of the mentioned 1.3134-1.2803 bear wave presents formidable resistance at 1.3056 as well.  A continuation of early week downward movement probes former support from the 3/16 and 3/17 lows at 1.2870 with a daily close below yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s low of 1.2804 necessary in order to further bearish sentiment.       

USD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ USD/CAD found support just below the confluence of yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s 50 day SMA / 50% fibo of 1.1297-1.1771 at 1.1536.  Daily oscillator action supports losses for the pair going forward with the 4/5 CCI cross below the 0 line the first of its kind since 2/27 ââ,¬â€œ after which the loonie gained against the US dollar to its multi year lows of 1.1297.  Hourly oscillators, RSI rising from oversold and a positive MACD cross, lean towards a corrective move up before lower prices are registered with bulls finding restraint at the 3/21 and 3/31 lows of 1.1574/78.  A break above targets former steadfast intraday support turned resistance at 1.1644, which is also the 50% fibo of the 1.1771-1.1517 bear move over the past few days.  A break below yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s 1.1518 low possibly triggers selling into the 61.8% retrace of the 1.1297-1.1771 move at 1.1478.

AUD/USD ââ,¬â€œ The AUD continues its assault on the US dollar, gaining for the fifth time in 6 days.  Yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s close above the 50% fibo of .7586-.7014 / 3/10 low at the .7300 handle bolsters the bullish cause going forward as does the morning star reversal candlestick pattern on the weekly charts (the week would have to close with price near .7300 or higher to complete the pattern).  Going forward, the next target looks like the 61.8% of .7585-.7013 at .7366 with a break exposing the 3/15 high of .7409.  A reversal sees  support at the 4/6 reaction low of .7260 with  a break lower targeting the 20 day SMA at 1.7214.

NZD/USD ââ,¬â€œ The strength from 4/5 did not extend into yesterday and Kiwi reverted to its losing theme, falling just shy of the .6100 figure.  Although currently supported by the 10 day SMA at .6102, a break below to previous support / low on 3/17 at .6047 could transpire in a momentââ,¬â"¢s notice.  The 4/4 hammer candlestick low at .6011 would be next on the list with a break testing the all-important . nearby 2 year low at 5991.  If NZD/USD puts up a fight, then look for sellers to reappear within the 20 day SMA / 4/6 high zone of .6185/.6205 with a break possibly offering relief for the pair to the 3/23 reaction high at .6294.

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.