EUR/AUD ââ,¬â€œ After last weekââ,¬â"¢s formation of a reverse hammer candlestick pattern indicated a top, EUR/AUD did indeed trade down this week in the direction of the carry with prices falling through its 10 and 20 day SMAââ,¬â"¢s.  The negative MACD cross on the daily and RSI falling from overbought levels raises additional concerns for euro bulls.  Hourly charts do offer temporary relief as evidenced by positive divergence with MACD and RSI.  Buying could challenge the 23.6% fibo of 1.7047-1.6609 at 1.6712 with a break possibly testing the confluence of the 38.2% fibo of the same move / 20 day SMA at 1.6775.  Extended losses target 1.6539, which is the 38.2% fibo of the 1.5606-1.7113 December 2005-March 2006 bull wave.

EUR/CAD ââ,¬â€œ The euro continued its torrid pace against the Canadian Dollar up until yesterday when the bottom simply fell out of the pair.  Massive divergence on the daily with stochastic preceded the violent move down and with oscillators near their midpoints, this move may have more to go.  Solid support is not evident until the confluence of the 1/20 low / 50% fibo of 1.3491-1.4359 at 1.3927 with potential reversal levels at the lower Bollinger band / 50 SMA at 1.3850/57.  Hourly oscillators are vastly oversold but can remain so given the potency of this bearish move.  In any case, strength runs into resistance at todayââ,¬â"¢s most recent breakout point / 3/31 reaction low of 1.4040 with further gains targeting Tokyo session resistance near the 1.4100 figure.  A daily close above the 4/7 1.4362 high is necessary in order re-establish a bullish bias.

EUR/NZD ââ,¬â€œ Similar to EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD has weakened of late, albeit not to the same degree.  The pair has stalled after spending a short time above the imposing 2.0000 figure.  Boding well for bears are the last two candles on the weekly chart ââ,¬â€œ with their long upper wicks suggesting weakness going forward (keep in mind that the current candle is not yet closed).  Downside moves target the 4/3 low at 1.9541 with a break paving the way for a test of the 23.6% fibo of 1.6327-2.0223 at 1.9308.  The current move is viewed as a correction of the larger uptrend with a break of the 4/4 high at 2.0226 exposing the 5/17/2004 high at 2.0474.

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.