Financials
Stocks: Stocks ended the week with a rather ugly down day, but the likelihood of following through to the downside next week is not high. We may have a softer opening to the week but by Friday expect stocks to have rebounded back towards this weekâ,"s high. I have been a bear on stocks for some time now and I am finally coming around to the bull side, so that may be a sign that the top is near! If I had to trade this market this week it would be cautiously from the long side.
Bonds: Bonds fell down much as we expected here. We could see a slide all the way down to 105 but not much beyond that and quite frankly even 105 is a long shot. I would expect some type of bounce in bonds early in the week and then a grind back towards this weekâ,"s lows.
Energies
Can you say setup? The Crude Oil market looks to be just that, a setup. As I look at this market I canâ,"t help but be lured into a long position. As a matter of fact Iâ,"m holding a Bull Call Spread from a few weeks ago that expires in about 10 days. The only problem is that everyone else is buying this recent run up right along with me. That makes me very uncomfortable. So uncomfortable in fact that I am ready to buy some OTM Puts for June that are selling for cheap at the moment. Anything under the 5900 strike seems to be a good buy respectively.
This isnâ,"t to say that Iâ,"m bearish the market right now. As I see it the products are the driving force right now and the refineries havenâ,"t impressed anyone with their transition so far this year. This has been primarily attributed to the change up in the additives that are required by the government this year. The latest numbers from the DOE seem to suggest that demand for Unleaded is outpacing the refinery utilization exponentially. So my Put purchase is more of a hedge than a position.
The news from abroad isnâ,"t helping much either with the latest arrest of the Yukos V.P. in Russia and the Venezuelan government continuing to change agreements with Oil companies to the point that only 16 of the 22 have decided to continue doing business there. The expected increases in production from these regions should be all but counted out if the governmental biz grab continues in both of these countries. If you use history as an indicator then the 25% decline in production from Venezuela over the past 5 years during Chavez rule probably wonâ,"t be very comforting.
Fridayâ,"s sell off is probably due more to profit taking and less to easing supply concerns going into the weekend. While I continue to hold this bullish position into next week I am definitely watching out for a break below 6550 and 5970 thereafter.
Natural Gas keeps bouncing around in a tight range of support and resistance and over this week we saw somewhat of a double top formation. This market is still oversold and as air conditioners in the Midwest start humming again we this market should find its way upwardly out of the range. We are going to continue holding the bull spread from 2 weeks ago as long as support holds over the next week.
Metals
Metal mania continues! After briefly touching $600, gold pulled back. Expect metals to consolidate from here in the short term. I expect to see 580 before we see 600 again. Silver too is way ahead of itself. Shorts put on above $12 should do well although there is always a chance of a blow off. Copper too is a bit top heavy in the short term. I know it is hard to want to go short when all the headlines are screaming new highs but that is precisely when you want to go short. Remember the old Wall Street adage â,"buy when no one wants it and sell when everyone wants itâ,. Near the money puts on metals would be the safest way to play this correction. Also I am in no way calling a major top just a temporary setback, long term I still expect to see $650 this year in Gold.
Grains
Well we did get some follow through from last weeks report, but I would have liked to seen a bit more strength across the board. Corn now seems to be the leader and if energy prices do continue higher corn will get pulled with it. Corn, like sugar, is becoming a quasi energy contract due to those products being used in the production of ethanol. However the gap on the corn contract is very large and bothersome to me at this point. Experienced traders know that gaps are almost always filled; the question is not if it will fill the gap but when. I have seen â,"breakaway gapsâ, like this before that have not been filled for many months or longer so there is little reason to expect the market to fill the gap immediately. I remain long corn beans and wheat through options.
Softs
OJ seems to be consolidating at the 150 level. Fresh longs from this point seem a bit unwarranted. Aggressive traders should look to short above 150 with stops above 155. Cocoa continues to drift sideways. I see little on the horizon that would break this market out of its range. Quite frankly, I see little reason to trade this market until wee see a move to either 1600 or 1400. I am now long coffee from 110, not sure I love this trade as my models show a market that could drift, like cocoa, for some time, but I took the signal none the less. Long term this market is a buy. Sugar traders that took my short trade rec should be quite happy! I expect to see follow through to at least 1650 this week. Sugar is still consolidating 2005â,"s rally so donâ,"t be surprised if we drift here between 1600 and 1800 more or less for quite some time. Cotton has confirmed the bottom and is now poised to make an attempt at a run towards 60.
Meats
This was a key week for the Live Cattle market as the support I mentioned form the monthly char last week seems to have held. Granted we missed out on being stopped long by .05 as the low for the week came in at 7755 instead of the 7750 I recommended. Nevertheless it should be noted that this looks like the end of a bear phase in a market that has clearly been in a bull trend for a few years now. We will be buying dips over the nest couple of weeks as long as support continues to hold.
Lean Hogs finally broke through support at 5500 on the front month contract and closed Friday at 5435. This market is also near support on the monthly chart which leads me to believe that we may be in for a key reversal as we approach 5000. We are in a bit of no mans land here and I am staying on the sidelines for now.
Forex Currencies
EUR/USD: After this weeks sell off I am looking for stabilization and then a solid bounce by the end of the week. I expect the bounce to be no less than 100 pips. Also todayâ,"s NFP report in no way sways me from my overall bearish stance on the Dollar.
USD/CHF: I continue to favor the short side. For now I am on the sidelines here but again any move above 131 would be cause for a new short.
GBP/USD: The cable continues to fight with resistance at 176. I expect to see this level broken through in the not too distant future.
USD/JPY: Still stuck in a range between 116-119 more or less. Continue to range trade by selling the high side of the range and buying the low side as we approach those extremes.
AUD/USD: When the current pull back turns back up go long. This market is likely to see some consolidation near term but medium to long term this should be a great buy down here.
USD/CAD: This pair had a wild sell off this week. Look for stabilization here this week with a slight upward bias.
Matt Odom is the Managing Partner and Energy Analyst and Derek Frey is Head Trader at Odom & Frey Futures & Options.
Risk Disclaimer
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading futures and options is not suitable for everyone. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.