EUR/JPY ââ,¬â€œ After rallying to nearly 145.00 last week, EUR/JPY failed to sustain a break higher at the 138.2% fibo of the 140.69-130.57 March to June 2005 bear wave at 144.56.  The subsequent correction down ran into support at the confluence of the 10 day SMA / 38.2% of 139.71-144.87 at 142.70/90.  Moving averages are still in trend formation with the 10 day SMA > 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 day SMA.  The weekly charts show a symmetrical triangle which is  typically a continuation pattern.  Bullish sentiment would improve with a daily close above the 144.87 4/6 high and pave the way for a test of 146.88 ââ,¬â€œ the 161.8% fibo of the March to June 2005 downward move.  However, the long wick above the body on the weekly candle is disconcerting to the  bulls.  The 4/7 reaction low at 142.69 serves as buyers first level of defense with additional support coming in at the 20 SMA / 50% fibo of 139.71-144.87 at 142.20/30.  A break below the 3/28 low of 139.71 is required in order to negate the bullishness stemming from the symmetrical triangle on the weekly.      

EUR/CHF ââ,¬â€œ The euro gave back some ground last week against the Swissie, finding support and currently trading at its 20 day SMA.  The 3/3/2004 high at 1.5845 impeded the rally and leaves the pair with a large double top on the daily and weekly.  Further, daily oscillators convey bearishness with negative MACD and stochastic crosses and CCI crossing below 100 and now close to 0.  The 3/28 low of 1.5701 serves as first support with a break exposing the 50% fibo of 1.5407-1.5853 at 1.5630.  MACD and RSI display positive divergence on the hourly and a bounce targets 1.5773 ââ,¬â€œ the 38.2% fibo of the recent 1.5853-1.5724 decline.  The 1.5802 4/6 reaction high is joined by the 61.8% fibo of the mentioned decline from 1.5853 at 1.5804 of which a break probes the 4/4 1.5853 high.  The proximity of the 1.5853 high at the double top results in high multiple reward to risk ratios.          

EUR/GBP ââ,¬â€œ EUR/GBP traded above the .7000 level for the first time since January 2005 last week but was promptly rejected by the downward sloping long-term resisting trendline dating to May 2003.  The pair found support at the intersection of the 20 day SMA / 38.2% fibo of .6789-.7020 at .6932 and currently trades just above that price.  Further losses may find buyers near the psychological .6900 figure which is also the 50% fibo of the ascent from .6789.  A breakout opportunity exists on a burst above the .7020 high made on 4/5.

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.