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Bulls Thwarted into the Shortened Trading Week
By Toni Hansen | Published  04/11/2006 | Stocks , Futures | Unrated
Bulls Thwarted into the Shortened Trading Week

Good morning! Volume was light on Monday as bearish pressures continued to hold the market in. 1.34 billion shares were traded on the Big Board and 1.86 billion on the Nasdaq. With few economic reports scheduled for release, and the New York Stock Exchange closed on Friday, we are likely to continue to see light trading over the next couple of days. While oil, energy and utilities saw the most strength as oil closes in on $70 a barrel, there is not much else left to provide enough fuel for more decisive action at this time.

Overall the action on Monday was mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) and S&P 500 ($SPX) outpaced the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) throughout the session. Computer hardware stocks, semiconductors, and home builders all felt the pressure. The Dow gained 21.29 points by the end of the day to close at 11,141.33. The S&P 500 managed a 1.12 point gain to end at 1,296.62. The Nasdaq, however, closed lower by 5.75 points at 2,333.27.

Despite a slight gap up into the open, the initial action into the day was more selling. This lasted for the first 15 minutes or so as the gap filled and the Nasdaq once more tested its 15 minute 200 sma support. At that point, the indices began to diverge once more. While the Nasdaq spiked slightly out of 10:00 ET, it was the Dow that showed the most relative strength, moving to new intraday highs before falling into a range, only to break out once more out of the 11:00 ET reversal period. This rapid climb took the Dow into its 5 and 15 minute 200 sma resistance and brought the S&P 500 back into prior afternoon highs as the 12:00 ET reversal period hit.

Rounded highs over noon aided in a rapid return of the bears in the early afternoon. All three indices broke to new intraday lows with the Nasdaq losing the most territory before finding support at the 10 day simple moving average. Both the Dow and S&P futures held last week's lows. The more gradual pace of the last wave of selling into 15:00 ET provided support for those lows to hold throughout the remainder of the session. This is particularly common if an index or stock makes a new low while still holding onto 20 sma resistance. This can been seen on the 5 minute chart of the YM (mini-sized Dow), whereby it fell into Friday's lows, but kept testing the 20 sma from about 14:20-15:00 ET before breaking higher through it.

My bias on the market this week remains unchanged from yesterday's column. I expect trading to be lighter throughout the week and risk to remain high. There is a slightly more bearish tendency at play right now, but I am still seeing a similar number of intraday upside setups taking place as well as short patterns. On both sides, however, the quantity and quality of them leaves much to be desired.  We will be seeing a lot more earnings coming out over the next couple of weeks and this should help pick things up a bit, offering greater opportunities intraday even though I do not foresee a lot for longer term patterns again until about October.

Economic Reports and Events
Apr 11: -
Apr 12: Trade Balance for Feb. (8:30 am), Crude Inventories 04/07 (10:30 am), Treasury Budget for Mar (14:00 pm)
Apr 13: Business Inventories for Feb. (8:30 am), Export prices ex-ag for Mar (8:30 am), Import Prices ex-oil for Mar (8:30 am), Initial Claims 04/08, Retail Sales for Mar (8:30 am), Retail Sales ex-auto for Mar (8:30 am), Mich. Sentiment-Prel. for Apr (9:50 am)
Apr 14: Capacity Utilization for Mar (9:15 am), Industrial Production for Mar (9:15 am)

Earnings Announcements of Interest
Only stocks with an average daily volume of 500K+ are listed. List may not be complete so be sure to always check your stock's earnings date before holding a position overnight. (A) = Earnings after the close, (B) = Earnings before the open, (?) = Earnings time not specified at the time of this writing
Apr 11: DNA (A), LPL (?), MOS (?)
Apr 12: CBH (B), GCI (B), GTK (B), HDI (B), LRCX (A), SOSA (A)
Apr 13: MTG (B), NYT (?), TRB (B), VCP (?)
Apr 14: -
Note: All economic numbers and earnings reports are in lines with those compiled by Yahoo Finance. Occasionally changes will occur that are made after the posting of this column.

Toni Hansen is President and Co-founder of the Bastiat Group, Inc., and runs the popular Trading From Main Street. She can be reached at Toni@tradingfrommainstreet.com.