EUR/USD ââ,¬â€œ EUR/USD consolidated recent losses within the confluence of the 61.8% fibo of 1.1950-1.2332 / 20 day SMA at 1.2096/1.2116.  Daily oscillators are tilting slightly to the bearish side with a recent negative stochastic cross and MACD change in slope to the downside.  Initial support comes in at todayââ,¬â"¢s 1.2076 low with a break below exposing the 200 day SMA of 1.2049.  A daily close below the 3/24 low at 1.1951 gives possibility to psychological 1.1900 support ââ,¬â€œ also backed by the 61.8% of 1.1640-1.2331 at 1.1905.  The case for higher prices is just as compelling with the inverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily / weekly still intact and price greater than the 200 day SMA.  One property of head and shoulders patterns that is important is symmetry.  Thus, it is interesting to note that the left shoulder (depending on how you count it) took anywhere from 14-16 weeks to form while the right shoulder currently trades during its 13th or 14th week.  As such, if the reversal is to play out, then it should happen in the next 2 to 3 weeks.  A break of the 1.2207 high made on 3/17 exposes last weekââ,¬â"¢s 1.2331 high.

USD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ USD/JPY quietly trades higher at the top of its recent range near 118.50.  Potential reversal levels linger just ahead at the confluence of the upper Bollinger band / 4/3 high at 118.72/79.  As break there would leave behind the trading range that has endured within the symmetrical triangle since early February, opening up a test of the 3/13 high at 119.18 and eventually the 2/3 high / 76.4% of 121.37-113.41 at 119.38/48.  Weakness means a return to the heart of the range with potential buyers at the 38.2% fibo of 116.66-118.67 slightly below the 118.00 figure at 117.90.  Additional support at the confluence of the 3/31 low and 76.4% fibo of the rise from 116.66 at 117.13 protects the supporting trendline from 1/12 coming in to play at roughly 116.75.

GBP/USD ââ,¬â€œ Cable also continues to digest recent losses between its 61.8% fibo of 1.7249-1.7617 and the 10 day SMA at 1.7390/1.7447.  Daily oscillators are neutral but recent positive divergence from MACD and RSI at oversold levels on the hourly suggest higher prices for at least the short term.  The 50% retrace of the past few dayââ,¬â"¢s move from 1.7617-1.7373 offers initial resistance at 1.7495 with a break above the psychological 1.7500 level giving scope to the 4/7 reaction high at 1.7535.  A daily close above the 23.6% fibo of 1.9325-1.7040 at 1.7574 gives possibility to a breakout to the upside.  Sellers will target yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s 1.7373 low and look to impose weakness until the 4/3 low of 1.7249 ââ,¬â€œ which provides a point of reference to trade a break to the downside.  

USD/CHF ââ,¬â€œ Looking just like the inverse of EUR/USD, USD/CHF found eventual resistance at the 61.8% fibo of 1.3191-1.2804 at 1.3043.  The weekly looks bearish with negative divergence among oscillators and price and a double top.  A breach of the supporting trendline from September 2005 near last weekââ,¬â"¢s 1.2804 low could be the catalyst for a downside breakout.  The shorter term outlook looks bearish with a negative cross on the hourly MACD. Support rests at the 38.2% fibo of the recent 1.2804-1.3058 upward move at 1.2961 after which price targets the 200 day SMA at 1.2899.  Sellers hope to contain any strength at yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s 1.3058 high but a burst through exposes the 76.4% fibo of 1.3191-1.2804 at 1.3099.         

USD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ USD/CAD continues to trade along its lower Bollinger band, consolidating losses between 1.1450 and 1.1500.  The daily chart provides a bearish tone as evidenced by negative sloping oscillators and the hourly supports this with a recent negative MACD cross.  Trading beyond the 1.1500 consolidation area targets the 50 day SMA at 1.1534 with further advances giving scope to the 50% fibo of 1.1771-1.1438 at 1.1604.  A continuation of recent weakness exposes the 76.4% fibo of the ascent from 1.1297 to 1.1771 at 1.1409 after which an assault on the 1.1297 low made on 3/2 is a possibility.      

AUD/USD ââ,¬â€œThe Australian Dollar has recouped nearly all its losses from Fridayââ,¬â"¢s threatening outside reversal pattern.  Daily oscillators remain bullish as RSI holds above 50 and the picture improves for bulls with a current 10, 20 day SMA positive cross.  .7365 remains important as it is the intersection of a downward trendline from February / 61.8% fibo of .7584-.7011.  Additional gains expose the 76.4% of the same move at .7449.  A resumption of consolidation from the past few days could see weakness probe the 23.6% of .7015-.7342 at .7265 with the 10 day SMA serving as continued support  at .7218.

NZD/USD ââ,¬â€œ Recent Kiwi price action looks like a consolidation before a continuation of the downtrend that began in December.  Gains have been capped mostly by the 23.6% fibo of the .6684-.5991 march bear wave at .6154 with the exception being the 4/6 high at .6185.  A break through the upper boundary of consolidation at .6185 opens up the door for a test of the 38.2% fibo of the bear wave from .6684 at .6256.  The .6060 Tokyo low serves as immediate support with continued weakness targeting the 4/4 low at .6012.  A daily close below the .5991 low made on 3/29 is required before claiming a resumption of the downtrend.

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.