EUR/USD ââ,¬â€œ The euro gained slightly against the greenback, trading through its 20 day SMA and 23.6% fibo of the recent 1.2331-1.2076 decline at 1.2136.  The confluence of the 38.2% of the same move / 10 day SMA waits at 1.2170/73.  Daily oscillator action remains slightly bullish with positive 14 day momentum increasing and RSI above 50 and also rising.  Still visible of course is the often mentioned inverse head and shoulders from May 2005 of which a close a below 1.1825 is required to completely dismiss the pattern and its bullish implications.  The 3/17 high / former breakout at 1.2207 presents potential resistance with a break ultimately targeting the zone bound by the 4/6 high / 38.2% fibo of 1.3478-1.1637 at 1.2332/40.  Pullbacks from the early week gains give scope to the 61.8% fibo of 1.1951-1.2331 at 1.2096 with additional weakness probing the 76.4% fibo / 200 day SMA at 1.2040/50.

USD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ USD/JPY continues to trade sideways, piercing the 4/3 high at 118.79 for just a momentââ,¬â"¢s notice before quickly falling fall to the 10 day SMA at 117.83.  Although daily oscillators remain slightly bullish with MACD above 0 and sloping upward ever so slightly, the sheer fact remains that we are trading near the top of a trading range bound mostly by 119.00 (2/21 high) and 116.67 (4/5 low).  Thus, a return towards the bottom of the range faces todayââ,¬â"¢s Tokyo low at 117.79 with a break below exposing the 50% fibo of 115.49-118.87 at 117.18.  Currently, the supporting trendline from 1/12 sits at about 116.50.  Yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s 118.87 high serves as resistance with a break ultimately testing the 2/3 high at 119.38.  A break above opens up the possibility of strength towards the 12/5 high at 121.38.

GBP/USD ââ,¬â€œ Cable flexed its muscles, defending the 1.7400 handle and presently hovering around 1.7500.  The pair trades just above the midpoint of a wide 400 pip range bound by the 3/6 high of 1.7624 and the 3/14 low of 1.7229.  The psychological 1.7500, also backed by the 38.2% of 1.7935-1.7229) could prove difficult for bulls to overcome but a break clears the way for a test of the mentioned 3/6 high at 1.7624.  A rejection near the upper end of the range sends price back towards the 50% fibo of 1.7248-1.7617 at 1.7433 with continued losses probing yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s 1.7373 low.

USD/CHF ââ,¬â€œ USD/CHF, similar to the other majors, remains in range trading mode after finding itself rejected at the confluence of the 50 day SMA / 61.8% fibo of 1.3191-1.2804 at 1.3033/43.  Looking like the inverse of EUR/USD, USD/CHF daily oscillators favor a slightly bearish bias with MACD below and falling and RSI creeping below the 50 midpoint.  As such, weakness towards the bottom of the range first targets the 50% fibo of the past few days rise from 1.2804-1.3058 at 1.2931 followed by the 61.8% fibo at the psychological 1.2900.  A break of the bottom of the range near 1.2800 would support a more aggressive bearish bias.  A resumption of the recent ascent towards the top of the range targets yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s high at 1.3058.  Further strength faces the 76.4% of 1.3193-1.2804 at the psychological 1.3100.  The upper end of the range limited by the trendline from 3/10 at around 1.3130 must hold for bears to keep the slightly bearish intact.

USD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ USD/CAD continues to ride along its lower Bollinger band, closing below it yesterday for the first time since 2/28 ââ,¬â€œ which was 2 days prior to the 1.1297 15 year low.  Positive divergence among hourly oscillators argue for a correction of the recent move down from 1.1771 with little resistance until yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s 1.1496 high.  A break there could see action towards the confluence of the 38.2% fibo of 1.1771-1.1424 / 10 day SMA at 1.1556/59.  Daily oscillators are particularly bearish with the exception of 14 day stochastic currently spending time in oversold territory ââ,¬â€œ the indicator can remain oversold/overbought for quite some time though during strong moves.  A continuation of the downtrend sees an attack on the 76.4% fibo of 1.1297-1.1771 at 1.1410 with a break opening up the door for a test of the 1.1297 low made on 3/2.

AUD/USD ââ,¬â€œ AUD/USD climbed back to the .7340 level that contained the pair last Friday, but in the process formed a double top that surely appears ominous to AUD bulls.  Divergence with oscillators on the hourly increases the likelihood of a drop with the 23.6% fibo of .7015-.7342 / yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s low serving as initial support at .7265.  The 20 day SMA comes in at .7203 to challenge sellers as well.  If AUD strength continues, then the 61.8% of .7586-.7015 provides resistance at the often mentioned .7365 with the 3/15 high at .7409 also a barrier.

NZD/USD ââ,¬â€œ Kiwi continues to consolidate the heavy losses it incurred from December 2005 until the end of March and is approaching the upper end of its range restricted by the .6185 high on 4/6.  The .6185 is initial resistance with a break exposing the 23.6% fibo of .7000-.5991 at .6226.  Still, the current range looks like nothing more than a bearish flag continuation pattern.  Short term momentum is slowing as evidenced by RSI crossing below 70 on the hourly and gives scope to a return of yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s low at .6060 with a break ultimately challenging the 3/29 low at .5991 after which a daily close below greatly increases possibility for a resumption of the downtrend.

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.