1. Canadian Manufacturing Shipments
2. US Retail Sales
3. University of Michigan Confidence

Canadian Manufacturing Shipments (FEB) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
Consensus:  0.5%
Previous:  -0.7%

Outlook: Shipments from Canadian manufacturers are expected to rebound 0.5% in February with producers finding temporary relief in input prices helping to spur hurting output levels.  Essential input prices for manufacturers fell 0.4% over the period, its fastest pace in three months, led predominantly by falling prices of oil and lumber.  In February, crude prices declined 7% leading overall raw material costs to drop 3.2%.  In spite of the consensus and easing input prices, detrimental factors are piling up against the read.   Recent trade figures reported exports had fallen in the February 3.5%, which undoubtedly reflects a contribution from the manufacturing sector.  According to the Statistics Canada release, a 12.7% plunge in shipments of vehicles led the decline while aircraft and its associated parts contributed with a 34.1% drop.  This weakness is indicative of the trouble producers have had in trying to accommodate a currency that has progressively pushed to a 14-year high against the US dollar, the currency of Canada's primary trade partner.  Coming out just days after the trade figure, the shipments data will take on added importance as the Bank of Canada looks at the manufacturing sector to determine if continued weakness will dent economic growth.

Previous: Canadian manufacturers began the year on a weak note with January shipments falling 0.7% to C$51.5 billion.  The bulk of the month's contraction can be attributed to the underperformance in the auto industry whose shipments fell 5.4% for the month due to temporary deliberate production delays and plant closures.  Producers of auto parts received amplified effects with their respective shipments falling 7.6% for the same period.  However, excluding volatile effects of vehicles, the core shipment figure actually rose 0.3%.  This overall increase represented improvements in 14 of the 21 industries followed by the gauge with commodity shipments performing especially well for period.  Monetary policy officials have kept a close watch on performance in the industrial sector to help predict overall growth trends as well as second round inflation.  And though the sector trimmed 41,600 employees in January, the positive core factor will likely keep the BoC focused more intently on inflationary figures.

US Advanced Retail Sales (MAR) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
Consensus:  0.4%
Previous:  -1.4%

Outlook:  After February's peculiar retraction, retail sales are expected to rebound in March, growing 0.4% on the month.  For the second straight month, automobile purchases are expected to be a drag on the overall figure, although not to the degree of February's decline.  Excluding autos, retail sales on the whole are anticipated to improve by 0.5%.  A strong state of employment supports predictions for a rebound in March as the month's unemployment rate matched its four-year low.  Furthermore, wages rose 3.4% on the month and businesses added 590,000 workers in the first quarter-more than any other quarter in the previous 5 years.  Improvements in the labor market have boosted consumer confidence as evidenced by a jump in the University of Michigan's sentiment index from February to March.  Any sales weakness resulting from a late Easter this year will probably be made up in April.  As a result, the Federal Reserve will have to be wary of inflationary builds beyond this spring. 

Previous:  Retail sales fell for the first time in six months, after February's figure dropped 1.4% from February.  Much of the decline over the month was caused by a tumble in automobile purchases.  Excluding autos, the overall figure declined a less dramatic 0.4%.  February's poor retail performance was amplified by the fact that sales the previous month expanded by 2.9%, which was far more than most expected.  In effect, inflated sales encouraged by unseasonably warm weather in January were offset by limited demand for traditional spring-time items over a colder February.  In spite of February's drop-off on the retail level, domestic demand has remained strong, causing the U.S. trade deficit to grow perpetually wider.  As the deficit continues to enlarge on ferocious domestic demand, the Fed is unlikely to step away from its tightening policy in the near future.  

University of Michigan Confidence Indicator (APR P) (13:45 GMT; 09:45 EST)
Consensus: 89.0
Previous: 88.9

Outlook: The University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence is expected to grow once again for the current month as employment conditions continue to improve.  However, with the market consensus suggesting a modest rise to 89.0 from March's large increase to 88.9, it is obvious there are conflicting factors playing on citizens' sentiment.  Undoubtedly lending the largest contribution to more confident consumers for the period was the drop in the jobless rate.  Extending the strong employment trend for the past couple of months, March's numbers proved to be another buttress for consumer spending.  Last week's Bureau of Labor Statistics release reported 211,000 jobs were added to the economy in March leading the jobless rate to drop to 4.7%, the lowest it has been in four and a half years.  However, the otherwise strong response this shift would usually produce will likely be tempered by the steady rise in gasoline prices.  Gas in the US averaged $2.86 per gallon in the first full-week of April while officials have suggested that they will remain there for the summer's busy driving season.  If consumer confidence numbers persist and translate into a strong rebound in spending from fourth quarter lulls, the Central Bank's monetary policy circle may determine the resultant inflationary pressure will require a retention of their current, tightening regime.

Previous:  Consumer optimism jumped well beyond the market's expectations in March according to the Michigan confidence read.   Against a consensus of a slight rise to 86.9, the actual figure printed at 88.9 as American's saw prospects in the labor market improving.  The most influential economic data supporting consumer sentiment for the period was the relatively low unemployment rate.  Jobless persons made up 4.8% of the available labor pool in the February, near a four-year low, after a complimentary report revealed 225,000 new jobs were added in the service sector.  Both the current conditions component gauge and the expectations measure rose over the month, from 105.6 to 109.1 and 74.5 to 76 respectively.  The stronger than expected confidence number was particularly welcome for the month after the most recent spending indicator grew only 0.1% in February after jumping to a six-month high 0.8% the month before. 

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.